Unrest will complicate Macron’s reform agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
High Ranking ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
High Ranking Official ◽  
Ability To Drive

Significance Fort will be the eighth high-ranking official to resign since Macron took office in 2017. This will raise further doubts over the credibility of Macron’s presidency and reform agenda. Impacts As the euro-area’s second-largest economy, France threatens euro-area growth prospects. Failure to control France’s budget deficit will result in conflict with Brussels. Such economic concerns will reduce Macron’s ability to drive EU political and economic reforms.

Export diversification augurs well for Europe's growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject The diversification and quality of European exports. Significance For all the gloom about Europe's economy, one fact stands out: the continent is a proficient exporter. This is not just true of Germany, the biggest exporter in Europe and the world's third-largest exporter overall. Half of the world's top-ten exporters are European. Impacts Export prowess suggests Europe's long-run growth prospects remain good. This finding is independent of the currency fortunes of individual members or the region. This supports a more bullish view on the euro-area growth prospects than currently foreseen.

Lower PMIs will not affect euro-area growth prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects

Headline EURO-AREA: Lower PMIs will not affect growth prospects

EU infrastructure plan could reinforce ECB policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Investment

Subject Outlook for infrastructure spending. Significance European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a 315 billion euro (340 billion dollar) infrastructure initiative to revive the EU economy, expected to reinforce ongoing monetary policy efforts to boost growth. Fund raising is progressing through the European Investment Bank (EIB). The programme can benefit both short-term and long-term growth prospects, while its actual impact will depend on the projects implemented, as politically motivated choices can delay, distort and depress the benefits. This plan comes late, six years after the global financial crisis; one of its priorities is generating rapid results to boost the economic recovery. Impacts To have a net positive impact, any infrastructure proposal would have to avoid drawing funds away from existing investment plans. The plan could help reducing disparities between labour markets in different euro-area countries. Persistently high euro-area unemployment will need a domestic demand revival to boost sentiment, growth and job creation.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2016. Significance Global growth could accelerate in the second half of 2016. Some emerging economies are facing better conditions thanks to the weaker dollar and some rebound in commodity prices, while others remain in recession. US growth slowed in the first quarter, while Japan's government just avoided a relapse into recession. Euro-area growth is robust compared to its recent trends, but cannot be relied upon to provide much support for the rest of the global economy.

Economic reforms to challenge Ecuador’s Moreno in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Social Disorder ◽  
External Funding ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Public ◽  
Challenging Tasks ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources

Subject Ecuador's economic difficulties. Significance A government attempt to remove fuel subsidies triggered a wave of protests in October, which left several protesters dead and thousands injured. The unrest illustrates the difficulty President Lenin Moreno faces in implementing economic reforms and austerity policies linked to his government’s agreements with the IMF. The scale of the mobilisations forced the government to overturn its decision to remove the fuel subsidies and enter into negotiations with organisations and movements involved in the protests. While the government has since made some progress with its reform agenda, more challenging tasks lie ahead. Impacts Preventing social disorder will be essential for Moreno as he attempts to restore his credibility ahead of next year’s elections. Further disorder will bolster Rafael Correa’s popularity, as he seeks spaces in which to participate in the elections. Moreno will continue to seek alternative sources of external funding to cover holes in the public finances.

New SAA deal could taint Pretoria's reform agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
State Aid ◽  
Service Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Wage Agreement ◽  
State Expenditure ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance It also raises questions about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform plan for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), crucial to growth prospects and the restoration of public finances, as well as market confidence. Impacts More state expenditure on SAA could harden the resolve of public-service trade unions in challenging Pretoria over a wage agreement dispute. Mboweni's credibility will take a hit if the restructuring plan is carried through with more state aid. A newly announced government council on reforming SOEs will paradoxically raise fears of further delays to overhauling them.

Prospects for the euro-area in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Export Industries

Subject Prospects for the euro-area in 2020. Significance The main factors that could weaken euro-area growth in 2020 include further damage to Germany’s export industries, which would hit the extensive supply chains and jobs across many smaller and less resilient member states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as specific social, economic and political challenges in individual countries.

Euro-area GDP growth will slow in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The Impact

Subject Reasons behind the euro-area growth slowdown. Significance In its Winter 2019 interim forecasts, the European Commission downgraded its expectations for euro-area growth to 1.3% and 1.6% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from 1.9% and 1.7% three months earlier. At its January meeting, the ECB Governing Council foreshadowed lower growth, shifting its risks assessment, saying that downside risks will dominate. Impacts The European Parliament elections could have a destabilising impact on growth in some countries. Monetary policy can do nothing to cushion the impact of lower growth caused by trade conflict. In case of recession, monetary policy stimulus will be constrained by the large size of the ECB balance sheet.

Energy production could weigh on euro-area growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth

Headline EURO-AREA: Energy production could weigh down growth

Euro-area growth outlook improves, more will be needed

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth

Headline EURO-AREA: Outlook improves, but more will be needed

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