Second-quarter euro-area growth might slow mildly

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth

Headline EURO-AREA: Second-quarter growth might slow mildly

Export diversification augurs well for Europe's growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject The diversification and quality of European exports. Significance For all the gloom about Europe's economy, one fact stands out: the continent is a proficient exporter. This is not just true of Germany, the biggest exporter in Europe and the world's third-largest exporter overall. Half of the world's top-ten exporters are European. Impacts Export prowess suggests Europe's long-run growth prospects remain good. This finding is independent of the currency fortunes of individual members or the region. This supports a more bullish view on the euro-area growth prospects than currently foreseen.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2016. Significance Global growth could accelerate in the second half of 2016. Some emerging economies are facing better conditions thanks to the weaker dollar and some rebound in commodity prices, while others remain in recession. US growth slowed in the first quarter, while Japan's government just avoided a relapse into recession. Euro-area growth is robust compared to its recent trends, but cannot be relied upon to provide much support for the rest of the global economy.

Unrest will complicate Macron’s reform agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
High Ranking ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
High Ranking Official ◽  
Ability To Drive

Significance Fort will be the eighth high-ranking official to resign since Macron took office in 2017. This will raise further doubts over the credibility of Macron’s presidency and reform agenda. Impacts As the euro-area’s second-largest economy, France threatens euro-area growth prospects. Failure to control France’s budget deficit will result in conflict with Brussels. Such economic concerns will reduce Macron’s ability to drive EU political and economic reforms.

Prospects for the euro-area in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Export Industries

Subject Prospects for the euro-area in 2020. Significance The main factors that could weaken euro-area growth in 2020 include further damage to Germany’s export industries, which would hit the extensive supply chains and jobs across many smaller and less resilient member states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as specific social, economic and political challenges in individual countries.

Euro-area GDP growth will slow in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The Impact

Subject Reasons behind the euro-area growth slowdown. Significance In its Winter 2019 interim forecasts, the European Commission downgraded its expectations for euro-area growth to 1.3% and 1.6% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from 1.9% and 1.7% three months earlier. At its January meeting, the ECB Governing Council foreshadowed lower growth, shifting its risks assessment, saying that downside risks will dominate. Impacts The European Parliament elections could have a destabilising impact on growth in some countries. Monetary policy can do nothing to cushion the impact of lower growth caused by trade conflict. In case of recession, monetary policy stimulus will be constrained by the large size of the ECB balance sheet.

Energy production could weigh on euro-area growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth

Headline EURO-AREA: Energy production could weigh down growth

Euro-area growth outlook improves, more will be needed

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth

Headline EURO-AREA: Outlook improves, but more will be needed

Euro-area growth to pick up after mild setback

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Expansion ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Market Expectations

Significance The second-quarter data were below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Germany and Spain appear more robust, but there is still scant take-off in domestic demand across the euro-area as a whole. Net trade made a positive contribution to growth, thanks to euro weakness. Intra-bloc trade provides a cushion, but this leaves euro-area growth exposed to external drivers when the pace of global expansion faces risks. Impacts Sector detail in September's second-quarter euro-area expenditure breakdown should show a negative contribution from inventories. Second-quarter growth was below the June ECB staff projection, so the September round will likely see a downgrade to the full-year forecast. Third-quarter leading indicators suggest accelerating growth, underpinned by less uncertainty after agreement on a third Greek bailout. The euro will stay weak as the Fed prepares to hike rates and the ECB continues its QE programme.

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Near Term

Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.

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