US-China 'cold war' could be a boon to the region

Significance The United States had lobbied its allies not to join the China-led AIIB, to little avail. Although the White House claims that the media has overplayed its opposition, it appears clear that Washington and Beijing are competing for influence through institutions, with China suspecting that the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a US effort to contain its geopolitical influence. Impacts The South China Sea is the most likely source of conflict, especially if underwater resources are discovered. All parties have an interest in containing North Korea, but missile defence systems may rattle China. A Chinese sea-based nuclear deterrent will trigger greater US investment in anti-submarine capabilities.

Significance However, China's navy already has an operational sea-based nuclear deterrent based on Hainan Island. The deployment of nuclear-armed submarines, and their need to reach the mid-Pacific to threaten the continental United States, makes the South China Sea an arena not just of maritime disputes but of US-China military rivalry. Impacts The strategic importance of the Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore to the United States will increase. A new defence agreement with the Philippines will, as of last month, support US military activities in the area. Washington will encourage greater Japanese involvement in the South China Sea; as long as Shinzo Abe is prime minister, Japan will oblige.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Jingdong YUAN

China remains an indispensable player in the peninsular denuclearisation process. Beijing seeks to foster peace and stability in the region, maintain a balanced two-Korea policy, and manage the North Korean nuclear challenge in the broader contexts of growing strategic rivalry with the United States, including disputes over trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea. Recent developments in China-DPRK relations indicate that Beijing continues to view North Korea as a strategic asset.


Subject India's relations with its 'Quad' partners. Significance India appears to be moving towards a four-country defence and security axis -- ‘the Quad’ -- with the United States, Japan and Australia. The chiefs of the four countries' navies shared a panel in Delhi in January, with the discussion focusing on Chinese activities across a region that Washington now describes as the ‘Indo-Pacific’. Impacts Russia will continue to be a key arms supplier to India even as Delhi deepens defence relations with Washington. Former Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will likely become a special envoy to China. Australia and Japan will sign an agreement for their militaries to conduct joint drills in each other’s countries. Further US ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea would antagonise Beijing.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


Significance South-east Asian leaders will discuss the South China Sea dispute, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and regional trade. ASEAN’s eight dialogue partners, including the United States and China, will be present at the talks. Impacts An eventual Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is likely to include an air code recently agreed by ASEAN defence ministers. Myanmar could face EU trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis. ASEAN is likely to boost cooperation over counterterrorism, cybersecurity and climate change.


2016 ◽  
Vol 08 (02) ◽  
pp. 15-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Chwee KUIK

If “militarisation” is defined as an act of deploying military assets to pursue wider strategic ends, then all players of the South China Sea disputes have engaged in some forms of militarisation. China’s militarisation reflect three layers of target audiences: the United States (the main target), regional countries (the secondary target) and its domestic audience. Beijing’s growing anxieties over US rebalancing and the arbitration ruling have paradoxically pushed it to accelerate its “militarisation” activities.


Author(s):  
D.V. Mosyakov ◽  

The author analyzes the situation in the South China Sea at the height of the global Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic and concludes that the pandemic only exacerbates long-standing conflicts. The author also examines the position of China, the United States and the ASEAN countries in relation to disputes in the South China Sea, highlighting Vietnam, which has long been a "bone of contention" between Beijing and Washington.


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