Kyrgyz president's ally is likely to succeed him

Significance The incumbent president, Almazbek Atambayev, is stepping aside as his single term is expiring. Jeenbekov is a strong contender as he comes from the president's Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), but other leading politicians have reasonable chances in the October polls. Impacts This will be only the second democratic handover of presidential power anywhere in Central Asia; Atambayev's 2011 election was the first. The SDPK has presided over politics since 2010 but its continued dominance is less certain, although it is adept at coalition-building. Signs of fractures in SDPK and Ata-Jurt point to shifts in the political party landscape, affecting the parliamentary process.

Subject The political fallout from anti-government demonstrations. Significance Popular protests unprecedented in size since the restoration of democracy in 1990 have forced a major government retreat. On February 5, Prime Minister Sorin Grindeanu withdrew emergency decrees intended to decriminalise corruption offences and pardon politicians convicted of graft. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) is struggling to adapt to the much-altered political landscape. Impacts Fears that Romania is following an East European pattern where dominant parties dismantle checks and balances will be quieted for now. Iohannis’s boldness in the crisis will make him a strong counterweight to the PSD. Reforms designed to clean up politics will be buttressed by the commitment of Romania’s main Western allies.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections. Significance Parliamentary elections held on October 4 resulted in victory for the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), which is aligned with President Almazbek Atambayev. Overall, the poll ended with a strong showing for pro-Russian parties, while the nationalist opposition, split into two competing coalitions (Respublika-Ata Jurt and Butun Kyrgyzstan-Emgek) faired relatively poorly. Impacts The results have provided the president with a chance of building a more coherent majority in parliament. Coalition-building should be easier than in recent past and thus governability should be enhanced. The strong performance of the SDPK and the Kyrgyzstan Party plays into the hands of Russia.


Significance Romania has one of the highest levels of any EU state of dissatisfaction with the performance of its democracy. Yet in the upcoming elections, voters look likely to give a strong mandate to the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the chief architect of the political system that has prevailed since 1989. Impacts A PSD government may move cautiously for fear of provoking a popular reaction. The independence of the justice system will depend on the vigilance shown by Brussels. A long-delayed shake-up leading to a more coherent pro-reform party now appears likely. The extent of political renewal will depend on the extent to which the large diaspora engages in national affairs.


Author(s):  
Charles S. Maier

This chapter examines issues arising from the elections that were held in France, Germany, and Italy in the spring of 1924, asking in particular whether the elections could resolve the political ambiguities persisting in the three countries. It suggests that the presence of important political alternatives could not guarantee that the voting would yield clear decisions. Even where significant majorities or shifts of opinion occurred, the results were not unequivocal in terms of the issues at stake. Choices on the ballot did not parallel real policy alternatives. Superficially decisive victories led merely to coalitions built around opportunity rather than policy. The chapter considers the limits of Benito Mussolini's majority, the setback suffered by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at the polls, and the coalition between the Radical Socialist Party and the SPD to form the Cartel des Gauches.


Significance The PNL is on the verge of replacing the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) in office. The change is more apparent than real. Both wish to lower expectations and anchor politics around the distribution of patronage rather than problem-solving. Impacts Infighting will plague the PSD but its factions may be able to prevent any steep erosion in their main power base at local level. Political disagreements preventing the nomination of an EU commissioner will ensure that EU vigilance towards Romania remains high. The PSD’s departure could boost investor confidence in Romania, badly shaken during the Dragnea period.


Significance Both had been in office since 2006, and Mijalkov was seen as indispensable for his control over the country. Along with Gruevski, both are heavily implicated in the wiretap scandal that Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev has publicised since February. The opposition described the resignations as Gruevski panicking to postpone his own departure, and vowed to continue protests until he resigns. Impacts Macedonia continues to overflow with conspiracy theories about Kumanovo. It is unclear who may have been double-crossing whom -- the government or the 'terrorists' or both. The incident will play into fears of a Greater Albania project to unite all Albanian communities in the Balkans.


Significance The motion will be backed by his former coalition partner, the Union to Save Romania (USR), together with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the nationalist AUR. Citu recently won the National Liberal Party (PNL) leadership contest. If the no-confidence vote succeeds, as seems likely, President Klaus Iohannis can make two attempts to form a new government. Impacts Romania has Europe’s second-lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate; administrative upheaval may worsen performance further. The main political institutions are fast losing credibility, and this is likely to benefit increasingly influential extreme nationalists. A PNL minority government would prioritise survival over serious reform during its remaining time in power.


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