Romania’s political renewal is still unlikely

Significance The PNL is on the verge of replacing the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) in office. The change is more apparent than real. Both wish to lower expectations and anchor politics around the distribution of patronage rather than problem-solving. Impacts Infighting will plague the PSD but its factions may be able to prevent any steep erosion in their main power base at local level. Political disagreements preventing the nomination of an EU commissioner will ensure that EU vigilance towards Romania remains high. The PSD’s departure could boost investor confidence in Romania, badly shaken during the Dragnea period.

Significance Both had been in office since 2006, and Mijalkov was seen as indispensable for his control over the country. Along with Gruevski, both are heavily implicated in the wiretap scandal that Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev has publicised since February. The opposition described the resignations as Gruevski panicking to postpone his own departure, and vowed to continue protests until he resigns. Impacts Macedonia continues to overflow with conspiracy theories about Kumanovo. It is unclear who may have been double-crossing whom -- the government or the 'terrorists' or both. The incident will play into fears of a Greater Albania project to unite all Albanian communities in the Balkans.


Significance The motion will be backed by his former coalition partner, the Union to Save Romania (USR), together with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the nationalist AUR. Citu recently won the National Liberal Party (PNL) leadership contest. If the no-confidence vote succeeds, as seems likely, President Klaus Iohannis can make two attempts to form a new government. Impacts Romania has Europe’s second-lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate; administrative upheaval may worsen performance further. The main political institutions are fast losing credibility, and this is likely to benefit increasingly influential extreme nationalists. A PNL minority government would prioritise survival over serious reform during its remaining time in power.


Subject The political fallout from anti-government demonstrations. Significance Popular protests unprecedented in size since the restoration of democracy in 1990 have forced a major government retreat. On February 5, Prime Minister Sorin Grindeanu withdrew emergency decrees intended to decriminalise corruption offences and pardon politicians convicted of graft. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) is struggling to adapt to the much-altered political landscape. Impacts Fears that Romania is following an East European pattern where dominant parties dismantle checks and balances will be quieted for now. Iohannis’s boldness in the crisis will make him a strong counterweight to the PSD. Reforms designed to clean up politics will be buttressed by the commitment of Romania’s main Western allies.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections. Significance Parliamentary elections held on October 4 resulted in victory for the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), which is aligned with President Almazbek Atambayev. Overall, the poll ended with a strong showing for pro-Russian parties, while the nationalist opposition, split into two competing coalitions (Respublika-Ata Jurt and Butun Kyrgyzstan-Emgek) faired relatively poorly. Impacts The results have provided the president with a chance of building a more coherent majority in parliament. Coalition-building should be easier than in recent past and thus governability should be enhanced. The strong performance of the SDPK and the Kyrgyzstan Party plays into the hands of Russia.


Significance The incumbent president, Almazbek Atambayev, is stepping aside as his single term is expiring. Jeenbekov is a strong contender as he comes from the president's Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), but other leading politicians have reasonable chances in the October polls. Impacts This will be only the second democratic handover of presidential power anywhere in Central Asia; Atambayev's 2011 election was the first. The SDPK has presided over politics since 2010 but its continued dominance is less certain, although it is adept at coalition-building. Signs of fractures in SDPK and Ata-Jurt point to shifts in the political party landscape, affecting the parliamentary process.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Hough ◽  
Michael Koß

Despite its recent electoral successes, the Left Party's position in the German party system is more fragile that it may at first appear. The Left Party gained support in 2005 largely on account of dissatisfaction with other parties and not because masses of voters were flocking to its (nominally socialist) cause. Not even a majority from within its own supporter base thought it possessed "significant problem solving competences." Rather, much of the Left Party's political discourse is based on negative dismissals of much that it sees—in policy terms—before it. We discuss the Left Party's political development through the prism of populist politics. After outlining what we understand populism to mean, we analyze the Left Party's programmatic stances and political strategy within the context of this framework. Although populism is certainly not the sole preserve of the Left Party, it clearly excels in using populist tools to make political headway. We conclude by discussing the ramifications that this has for German party politics in general and for the Social Democratic Party in particular.


Subject Political outlook. Significance Scheduled parliamentary elections take place on November 8. Opinion polls point to a slim victory for the opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the gap with the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) having narrowed. A shift in power does not herald any significant change in either the government's effectiveness or policy direction. Like its predecessor, an HDZ-led administration would be weak and beholden to an angry public's whims. Impacts HDZ's lead in the polling has fallen lately, but politics will turn nationalist whoever wins the election. Croatia is on a journey towards Hungarian-style economic nationalism and a more sceptical approach towards the EU. Support is likely to increase for Bosnian Croat attempts to form a third Bosnian entity, contributing to the steady collapse of BiH.


Subject Public life after local elections. Significance Expectations that public life might get an overdue reform boost have been dashed. The Social Democratic Party (PSD), direct heir of the pre-1989 ruling communists, has enjoyed a major comeback. Having been driven from office by popular anger in 2015, the PSD won a convincing nationwide victory in local elections held in June. With parliamentary elections due by December, the party is now poised to have a central role in shaping Romania's direction. Impacts Restoring political control over the justice system will stimulate corruption which continues to be endemic. Voters are largely pro-Western but demobilised. The economy will suffer as parliament passes pre-election acts that will widen the fiscal deficit.


Significance They have enough seats along with the Hungarian minority party to form a government. But the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) and fringe politicians are the main beneficiaries of the general election held on December 6, which revealed deep dissatisfaction with the outgoing minority National Liberal Party (PNL) government, amid a far-right comeback and low turnout. Impacts The COVID-19 crisis has deepened the gulf between much of society and a poorly performing state. Whoever held office in 2020 was likely to have been punished by voters but elite figures' self-serving behaviour continues regardless. If PNL and USR-PLUS do not bury their mutual animosity, PSD or some populist may capture the presidency in 2022.


Significance Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader Liviu Dragnea’s response that the protests are part of an attempted coup suggests he will not compromise. Within the new ruling coalition, there is strong support for the PSD to get a grip on the justice system and insulate politicians from legal sanctions. Impacts The PSD’s proprietorial attitude to the state will bring back impunity for runaway corruption. The lack of restraining figures within the PSD and opposition weakness increases the risk of street-level unrest. An attempt to impeach President Klaus Iohannis cannot be ruled out. PSD radicalism may accelerate attempts to build a more effective political opposition.


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