EU doubts over effectiveness will dog Privacy Shield

Significance The meeting took place against a background of persisting tensions between European authorities and the mainly US-owned digital giants over questions of data protection and privacy. Impacts Concerns that the procedures have not been properly tested to establish whether EU citizens’ data is properly protected will persist. The prospects for Privacy Shield may set a precedent for post-Brexit data relations between the United Kingdom and the EU. This could jeopardise the UK data protection regime's changes of being deemed “adequate” by the European Commission.


Subject UK-EU data flows post-Brexit. Significance Recent publication of the UK government’s no-deal Brexit plans highlight the difficulties that could arise in transferring data between the EU and the United Kingdom in the event of such an outcome. Impacts Data protection requirements may prompt EU companies to avoid the United Kingdom as a host for their data. This would undercut UK digital companies that rely on such data as a part of their business model. Firms dependent on data transfers within the EU are likely to relocate parts of their businesses to another member state.



Significance However, there has been a notable change in the EU’s tone. In July, the European Commission unexpectedly paused legal action against the United Kingdom for an alleged breach of the NIP, and when London announced on September 6 that it was suspending key elements indefinitely, the EU’s response was muted. Impacts France is so deeply aggrieved over AUKUS that any further UK breaches of the Withdrawal Agreement could prompt a bad-tempered response. The possibility of an early assembly election in Northern Ireland would complicate EU-UK attempts to resolve the NIP issue. The exclusion of high profile, pro-EU politicians in the UK cabinet reshuffle shows how important the Brexit agenda remains for London.



Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.



Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.



Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.



Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.



Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.



Significance The celebration came just days before the United Kingdom is set to begin the withdrawal process. Precisely what path the EU will take over the next decade remains uncertain and the European Commission has kicked off a process of dialogue on various scenarios for its future. Impacts Debates about the future of the EU will occur simultaneously with Brexit negotiations and be coloured by them. EU leaders will be keen to continue to demonstrate their commitment to press forward with European integration despite Brexit. Brexit will not lead to an unravelling of the EU and thus far has served to enhance support for the Union in other member states. Yet Brexit will not lead to any sudden deepening of integration.



Subject Euratom and Brexit. Significance The UK government on July 13 put forward its proposals on handling its exit from the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). The document was published amid growing consensus between parliamentarians, the nuclear industry and the scientific and medical communities that the considerable risks associated with leaving Euratom made transition arrangements essential. Impacts Exiting Euratom and the EU will exacerbate the United Kingdom's problems of an ageing nuclear workforce and skills shortages. A UK association agreement with Euratom could be derailed by a veto by the anti-nuclear Austrian government. The problems presented by exiting Euratom will be replicated in other areas where the United Kingdom relies on EU expertise and oversight.



Significance The UK government remains divided over how its relations with the EU’s customs union should be arranged after Brexit, while the EU is unimpressed by any of the suggestions put forward by London to date. This issue is central to both the future EU-UK trade relationship and the debate about how to resolve the question of the intra-Irish border. Impacts Any physical infrastructure on the Irish border would become a target for violence. A hard border could increase support for Irish reunification among Northern Irish Catholics. Different customs regimes in the EU and the United Kingdom could lead to smuggling.



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