US foreign influence laws will tighten

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political System ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance The bills were introduced in late 2017 to update the 1938 Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). The changes come amid debates over alleged Russian influence in the 2016 US presidential election, and over foreign trade and protectionism. Impacts Critics will argue that the DFIA unfairly groups foreign industries with foreign political interests. Even the most incidental lobbyists’ or foreign representatives’ meetings with federal officials will need to be reported under FARA. Foreign firms will have to disclose whom their representatives have met in government circles, posing competition risks. A DFIA could support confidence in the US political system.

US election raises doubts over Japan-US alliance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Campaign Rhetoric ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
East Asia Region ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

OECD and EU cannot count on Biden backing digital tax

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Us Senate

Significance Signs that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is likely to secure a narrow victory in the US presidential election will boost the Commission’s hopes for global consensus and better transatlantic dialogue on digital taxes. Impacts Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom will support EU calls for a digital tax. The list of countries imposing unilateral digital taxes will continue to grow as pandemic-induced recession bites. The precise bipartisan balance of the US Senate will determine the extent of tech-related policy changes under Biden.

Polling will proliferate despite UK 'Brexit' failure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Communication Methods ◽  
The Eu

Subject 'Brexit' polling. Significance On June 23, the pound swung wildly: final polls on whether the United Kingdom should leave the EU ('Brexit') had shown a 4-percentage-point lead for 'Remain', only for the final result to be the opposite. Pollsters have been criticised for their failure to predict both this result and the 2015 UK general election outcome, even as qualitative analysts have also been criticised for missing the results. Impacts The US presidential election is immune from most polling failures, given its hyper-coverage and the discrete decisions of swing states. US Senate and House of Representatives elections are much more difficult to poll, leading to likely market volatility in early November. Changes in communication methods are sparking debates about how a representative sample of the population can be reached best.

Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2017. Significance President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have hailed Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Putin acknowledged that repairing bilateral relations would not be easy. Although some of Trump's campaign remarks will have pleased Moscow, the lack of clarity on what he will do in office means that a rapid 'reset' is not in sight. Moscow aspires to being treated as an equal superpower with its own spheres of interest, and has deployed military power and strong rhetoric to win this. The result is a deteriorating relationship with Western governments.

Remittances growth in Latin America will slow in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
The Caribbean

Subject The outlook for remittance inflows. Significance Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was the only region in the world that registered an increase in family remittances last year. Impacts The rise in 'extra' remittances after last year's US presidential election will not be repeated this year. The taxing of remittances could partially reverse many years of efforts to lower sending costs. Increased employment in the US construction sector could help sustain remittances to LAC.

Cyber risks overshadow China-US summit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Cyber Affairs

Subject Cybersecurity tensions in the China-US relationship. Significance In the run-up to President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington later this month, US officials have discussed plans to impose economic sanctions on Chinese organisations and individuals found to have engaged in cyberattacks against US targets. The national security and economic implications of cyber tensions are becoming increasingly manifest while space for an agreement seems to be shrinking. Impacts Cyber affairs will be one of the most important bellwethers for the broader China-US relationship. There is potential for escalation and spillover, particularly given the growing prominence of hawkish voices on both sides. There is a long-term risk of diverging technical standards. The approach of the US presidential election makes compromises more difficult.

Prospects for Iran in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Subject Prospects for Iran in 2020. Significance Sanctions and the stand-off between Tehran and Washington will continue until the outcome of the US presidential election become clear. To weather the storm, Iran’s priority for 2020 will be to manage economic pressure and manipulate regional tensions as part of its leverage-building strategy.

China-Japan relations set for new downturn

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence System ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance Recent events suggest this is about to change. Impacts Washington will press Japan to buy other US equipment after Tokyo cancelled the Aegis Ashore missile defence system. India’s and Australia’s confrontations with China will make them more willing security partners for Japan. A Democrat victory in the US presidential election would likely stabilise the alliance, but not remove US pressure on Japan vis-a-vis China. Japan will seek security cooperation with European partners, which will be more receptive due to their growing misgivings about China.

US policy will threaten the Iran nuclear deal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Commercial Aircraft ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Political Symbol ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
European Investment

Significance Although the extension is not a formal violation, it reflects rising tensions over the July 2015 deal. The US presidential election victory of Donald Trump has raised questions over its future. Trump dislikes the agreement, as do hardliners in Iran, and it is no longer likely to be implemented as originally planned. Impacts Aggressive US sanctions would deter European investment, creating opportunities for Asian investors. In the absence of a strong conservative candidate, a May 2017 election victory for President Hassan Rouhani is still probable. Washington’s likely scuppering of the sale of commercial aircraft could be a powerful political symbol for Iranian hardliners.

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