Outreach could bring economic rewards to North Korea

Subject The outlook for North Korea's economy. Significance North Korean state media today called for the United States to ease sanctions in recognition of Pyongyang's 'good-faith' steps toward denuclearisation. Stronger sanctions and drought are cited as main causes of North Korean GDP contracting by 3.5% last year, its worst performance since a 6.5% fall amid famine in 1997, according to annual estimates by South Korea’s central bank, published on July 20. Pyongyang’s total trade fell by 15.0%, with exports plunging by 37.2%. Impacts Strong economic motives, intensified by drought's officially acknowledged toll on the economy will sustain Pyongyang's diplomatic outreach. Laws are being adapted to the new realities, but much greater transparency is needed for a market economy to flourish. The economy may have become stronger than the South Korean data acknowledge, but last year's downturn is not in doubt. If reforms are deepened and sanctions eased, North Korea's mineral resources and educated, disciplined workforce will be valuable assets.

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 891-910
Author(s):  
Jina E. Kim

The South Korean radio docudrama and adapted novel Take Me Home (1978) were based on the real-life case of Chol Soo Lee, who in 1974 was wrongly convicted of murder and sentenced to life imprisonment in the United States. Lee was later acquitted following a series of investigative reports and amid an emerging social movement calling for his release that spanned South Korea and the United States. Influenced by both the American civil rights movement and the Korean progressive minjung ideology, Take Me Home is among several popular radio programs and novels that helped spark this transpacific movement by critiquing US hegemony and Korean state nationalism and by reimagining the figure of the tongp'o in the context of a nascent pan-Korean consciousness. This article traces how the tongp'o is foregrounded, constructed, and ultimately saved in Take Me Home and argues that the radio novel's sonic imagination played a crucial role in broadcasting solidarity across the Pacific.


Significance Eight months on, there is little progress on the key issues discussed at the Singapore summit: there has been no formal end to the Korean War, and the two sides are yet to agree on what ‘denuclearisation’ means in practice. Impacts As part of a deal in Hanoi, Trump may offer sanctions relief that allows inter-Korean initiatives to proceed. Seoul and Tokyo fear a deal that removes the threat to the United States but leaves Pyongyang’s regional capabilities intact. Serious deterioration of relations between Japan and South Korea strengthens Pyongyang’s position. If inter-Korean initiatives fail, the prospects rise of South Korean conservatives recapturing the legislature in next year's election.


Significance Separately, North Korean state media announced today the arrest of a US tourist for an unspecified "hostile act". Impacts Inter-Korean ties will suffer, but Kim had already given up on President Park Geun-hye. Upcoming elections in the United States and South Korea militate against new policy initiatives. Seoul's relations with Beijing will cool, while those with Tokyo improve somewhat. The Congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party in May, will give clues about personnel and policy shifts.


Significance Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s nine-hour Party speech was unyielding on all fronts. A new Five-Year Plan is to be achieved by increasing state control and self-reliance. The United States remains the “biggest enemy”. Kim pledged to expand Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal further. Impacts Much of Kim’s new weapons wish-list appears hypothetical; January’s parade, unlike one in October, revealed little that was new. Economic renewal using old, failed methods will not work; North Korea will grow yet more dependent on China, uncomfortably. Seoul’s hopes of renewing ties are wishful thinking; Kim will await a new South Korean president, to be elected in March 2022.


Subject South Korea's international relationships. Significance South Korea’s government is celebrating the success of its response to COVID-19, but the country’s four key foreign relationships all face difficulties -- those with the United States, China, Japan and North Korea. No other countries or regions are vital to Seoul, despite vaunted ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’ initiatives. Impacts A prolonged deadlock on funding the US military presence in South Korea could push Seoul closer to Beijing. If President Xi Jinping visits South Korea later this year, Washington could easily misread this. Substantial fence-mending with Japan may have to await new leaderships in both countries. South Korean President Moon Jae-in may have tacitly given up on North Korea, which has visibly given up on him.


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