ASEAN South China Sea claimants will get more US help

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Significance South-east Asian countries are concerned about growing Chinese assertiveness and anxious about growing superpower rivalry in the region. Impacts ASEAN-China negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will resume in 2021 but be prolonged and contentious. South-east Asian claimants will refuse to make concessions to Beijing in return for COVID-19 vaccine supplies. Brunei, ASEAN’s 2021 chair, will work hard to maintain consensus among the bloc’s ten members over the South China Sea.

ASEAN and China have far to go to agree key sea code

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The South ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Subject Negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Significance ASEAN and China last month agreed on a first draft of a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea, where four South-east Asian countries and Beijing have conflicting maritime and territorial jurisdictional claims. China wants the CoC to be signed by 2021. As ASEAN-China negotiations continue, tensions are rising in the South China Sea between Beijing and Washington, which supports ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea, and between Beijing and the South-east Asian claimants. Impacts China-US friction over trade, the political crisis in Hong Kong and US arms sales to Taiwan will exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will come under growing pressure to recalibrate his pro-Beijing policy. Vietnam will step up its vigilance in the South China Sea while trying to manage tensions with China through bilateral discussions.

US tensions drive China closer to ASEAN

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Maritime Security ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Subject ASEAN-China security cooperation. Significance China-ASEAN security cooperation has moderated the assertiveness Beijing displayed in the South China Sea during the first half of this year. In October, China and the ASEAN states held their first ever joint naval exercise. Impacts The verbal statements on regional maritime security cooperation will increasingly be followed by concrete actions. Negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will advance slowly and contentiously. China-Philippines joint energy explorations in the South China Sea will remain hamstrung by Philippine constitutional conditions.

China-US rivalry in South China Sea is muted for now

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.

ASEAN summit will make little progress except on trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The United States ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Trade Sanctions

Significance South-east Asian leaders will discuss the South China Sea dispute, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and regional trade. ASEAN’s eight dialogue partners, including the United States and China, will be present at the talks. Impacts An eventual Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is likely to include an air code recently agreed by ASEAN defence ministers. Myanmar could face EU trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis. ASEAN is likely to boost cooperation over counterterrorism, cybersecurity and climate change.

ASEAN-US defence ties will grow as sea contest flares

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Subject ASEAN-US defence and security ties outlook. Significance The 'Shangri-La Dialogue' held in Singapore between May 29 and 31 evidenced the growing China-US divide over the South China Sea, particularly over China's island-building activities. The frictions will be revisited at the ASEAN Regional Forum, in Malaysia on June 10. Burgeoning tensions in the South China Sea increase pressure on South-east Asian countries, and ASEAN, to maintain equilibrium in relations with China and the United States as individual ASEAN countries pursue their own maritime interests. Impacts The Philippines will seek further US defence support, and develop security ties with Vietnam and Japan. Singapore will push for a South China Sea code of conduct, but China is unlikely to consent to a binding code. US Pacific Command leadership will provide some US strategy continuity in the Asia-Pacific region.

Laos's 2016 ASEAN chairmanship will be challenging

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Regional Influence

Subject Outlook for Laos's 2016 chairmanship of ASEAN. Significance Laos chairs ASEAN in 2016, its second chairmanship. Yet 2016 promises a more demanding and complex chairmanship for Vientiane than 2004. Impacts Minor advances in implementing the Declaration on the Code of Conduct over the South China Sea are possible. Yet the Code itself will not be agreed in 2016. Laos-US ties will expand in 2016. Beijing-Washington competition over Laos as a proxy for their regional influence will grow. Indonesia and Malaysia will probably drive ASEAN's anti-ISG efforts in 2016.

ASEAN will struggle for cohesion on key issues

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Key Issues

Significance At the conclusion of the meeting, a customary statement was issued by the bloc’s chair, which this year is Vietnam. Among other points, the statement confirmed establishment of a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund and noted concerns among members about recent developments in the South China Sea. Impacts ASEAN members will remain unable to agree on a united response to the Rohingya crisis. Disagreement on how safe it is to travel amid the ongoing pandemic will delay formation of a proposed ASEAN travel corridor. A Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is unlikely to be agreed before the end of this year.

ASEAN and China will find South China Sea code elusive

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Offshore Development

Significance Foreign ministers of the ten ASEAN countries and China have endorsed a single draft negotiating text (SDNT) regarding a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea. The South China Sea dispute involves maritime territorial and jurisdictional disagreements. Impacts The Philippines and China will proceed with discussions on the joint development of resources in disputed areas of the South China Sea. Vietnam will prioritise offshore development with Russia, believing it will dissuade Chinese pushback. Washington will continue to undertake freedom of navigation operations around China’s artificial islands, irking Beijing.

Philippine-US alliance will strengthen

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Significance In July, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte decided to retain the Philippine-US Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), having in 2020 mandated its termination. Duterte’s single, six-year term ends next June, but he says he will run for vice president in May’s elections. Impacts Talks between ASEAN and China over a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea are unlikely to be concluded until 2022 at the earliest. Investment deals between Beijing and Manila will not yield notable improvement in Philippine infrastructure before Duterte leaves office. The pandemic-hit Philippine economy should continue to recover despite the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.

Philippines’s Duterte faces pressure over China ties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Two Sides

Subject The Duterte administration's relationship with China. Significance President Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the Philippines late last month highlighted the risks and opportunities associated with President Rodrigo Duterte’s close embrace of China. The two sides signed several deals including one furthering talks over joint exploration for oil and gas in the South China Sea, in which both countries are claimants. Impacts The Philippines will be central to ASEAN-China negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Recently appointed Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin will be less supportive of close China ties than his predecessor Alan Peter Cayetano. Debate over deals with China will likely feature prominently in the 2022 presidential election. China will explore joint energy development with Brunei in its exclusive economic zone.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document