EU may try to nudge London towards single market plan

Headline EU/UK: EU may try to nudge May towards single market

Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.


Subject The EU's single market for energy. Significance Climate change targets, the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and direct emissions controls increasingly define the end-destination of the EU’s energy transition towards a single market, while the precise path of travel is determined largely by national-level policies. Differences in national approaches create distortions that hamper the increase in cross-border trade required to make the EU single energy market a reality. Impacts The EU will continue to resist capacity markets and strategic-reserve mechanisms, which create significant market distortions. Cross-border electricity trade requires significant new investment, but it is not clear that the financial incentives exist to support it. The long-term future of gas-fired generation is in doubt owing to increasing competition from low-carbon technologies.


Significance The alternative to passporting after Brexit is ‘equivalence’, which would allow EU and UK firms access each other’s financial markets. However, such a regime does have the same sectoral coverage as passporting and is vulnerable to revocation. Impacts New free trade deals with non-EU countries will not substitute for the EU’s single market in terms of financial services coverage. While the strength of other EU financial centres will grow, London has an infrastructure that is difficult to replicate. Failure to reach an agreement on UK-EU financial services trade could see many firms unable to serve EU clients from London.


Subject The Bratislava summit. Significance Leaders of the EU-27 -- all EU member states except the United Kingdom -- held an 'informal' summit in Bratislava on September 16, aiming to demonstrate their shared resolve to move forward with the integration process in the wake of the Brexit vote. While leaders agreed to a roadmap of policy plans, they skirted around the most divisive issues facing the EU and did not agree on any significant new initiatives. Impacts EU governments again failed to agree to a workable plan to address the migrant crisis, rendering an EU-wide solution increasingly unlikely. Significant agreements on improved security cooperation may not be reached until well into 2017. The EU is likely to block any UK efforts to maintain its current access to the single market without allowing for free movement of workers.


Significance A ‘no deal’ outcome from the negotiations would have massively disruptive effects on both sides of the Channel. Impacts A ‘no deal’ outcome would create political bad will which would impede cooperation with remaining EU states across a range of issues. The short-term costs of adjustment and trade disruption will be additional to the costs of leaving the single market and customs union. The UK government could lose its reputation for competence.


Subject EU's ePrivacy proposal. Significance Austria, as president of the Council of the EU for the second half of 2018, has made finalising the Regulation on Privacy and Electronic Communication or ‘ePrivacy Regulation’ (EPR) for the European digital single market a core priority. Impacts Critics argue that the EPR will further undercut the EU’s attractiveness as a digital economy hub compared to the United States and Asia. Advocates counter that, as with the GDPR, the EPR will reinforce the EU’s status as the agenda-setter in regulating the digital economy. Privacy rules and security considerations may collide.


Headline EUROPEAN UNION: Digital market plans pose TTIP risk


2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 781-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ Kashian ◽  
Robert Drago

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze interest-bearing checking (IC) account policies, including the monthly fee, and minima to avoid the fee or to earn interest, as shrouded equilibria in the sense that low-income depositors subsidize higher income depositors. The authors ask whether behavior is consistent with low-income depositors being myopic, and analyze the role of competition and bank size. Design/methodology/approach – IC policy data from RateWatch cover more than 600 single-market banks from 2008-2012, and are matched to FDIC SOD data and call report data for testing. Hypotheses assuming low-income depositors are myopic are tested, as are the effects of bank size and competition with local market and multi-market banks. Findings – IC policies represent locally shrouded equilibria, with low-income depositors subsidizing higher income depositors up to a well-defined threshold, with depositors above that threshold subsiding all other customers. IC policy patterns are consistent with low-income customers being myopic, with banks generally avoiding drawing their attention, attempting to confuse them, and with policies consistent with a present orientation among low-income depositors. Local market competition does not meet the traditional expectation of favoring consumers. Additionally, larger banks report higher fees and minima, with the difference growing during the period. Social implications – IC policies have not received regulatory attention, yet the fees likely fall mainly on low-income individuals, and may continue to grow. Originality/value – The analysis of IC policies is novel, as is the locally shrouded equilibrium model, and findings regarding competition.


Subject UK/EU trade disintegration. Significance The underlying structure of global trade integration combined with the political imperatives of Prime Minister Theresa May’s government make a ‘hard Brexit’ inevitable. When EU leaders say the United Kingdom cannot cherry-pick from the single market they mean that it is the free movement of goods, services, labour and capital that unify the EU's single market. Take one of those out, and ‘planned disintegration’ begins. Impacts The United Kingdom will signal that it is ‘open for business’ by easing its regulatory regime and lowering corporate taxes. Financial firms will benefit the most from this, but it may not help tax receipts if uncertainty remains high, keeping confidence low. The United Kingdom will prioritise the United States for any trade deal but this may weaken its negotiating position with the EU. Research and development support and regional policies can be used to mitigate EU tariffs but will not cover all firms.


Subject The United Kingdom's industrial strategy. Significance The UK government has signalled that an industrial strategy will be a central element in its economic policy. This represents a departure from traditional Conservative positions. Impacts The emerging strategy will have to address the fate of the country's remaining heavy industries, with steel being a major challenge. Distrust of state intervention in large parts of the Conservative Party could make elements of the strategy highly contentious. EU rules on the single market (particularly public procurement) and competition policy will no longer apply in case of a 'hard' Brexit.


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