Measuring redenomination risks in the Euro area – evidence from survey data

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Klose
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bond Yield

Purpose This paper aims to introduce a new indicator to measure redenomination risks in Euro area countries. The measure is based on survey data. The influence of this indicator in determining sovereign bond yield spreads is estimated. Design/methodology/approach An autoregressive distributed lag approach is used to estimate the effects of redenomination risks on sovereign bond yields. Additional control variables are added. Findings The results for 10 European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries in the period June 2012 to May 2019 show that the risk of depreciation is almost abandoned for most Euro area countries, i.e. the former crisis countries Ireland and Portugal. If anything an appreciation may occur for some countries once they leave the EMU. The only countries facing depreciation problems once leaving the monetary union are Italy and to some extent Spain. Originality/value With this new indicator, the literature on sovereign bond determination and i.e. on redenomination risks is expanded by an additional approach. Moreover, this study is one of few also looking at the period after the most severe tensions of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area in 2012.

scholarly journals Location of banks and their credit ratings

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 220-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric van Loon ◽  
Jakob de Haan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
External Support ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – This paper aims to examine whether credit ratings of banks are related to their location, i.e. inside or outside the Euro Area. Design/methodology/approach – The authors estimate a multilevel ordered probit model for banks’ credit ratings in 2011 and control for bank-specific factors. They use the overall ratings and the external support ratings provided by Fitch as the dependent variable. Findings – Banks located in Euro Area member countries, on average, receive a higher credit rating from Fitch than banks located outside the Euro Area. Evidence for a “too-big-to-fail” and a “too-big-to-rescue” effect was also found. Research limitations/implications – The monetary union effect on banks’ credit ratings may be affected by the period under investigation. The ratings refer to August 2011, when the European sovereign debt crisis was at its height. This implies that, if anything, the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) effect is underestimated. Practical implications – Large banks in the Euro Area receive higher credit ratings, so they have a competitive advantage over small banks located outside the Euro Area. Social implications – The present evidence suggests that small European countries with an extensive banking sector will be better off if they are member of the European EMU. Originality/value – The relationship between location of banks and their credit ratings has hardly been researched before. The present evidence is directly related to a debate in the literature on this issue.

7. Policy-Making under Economic and Monetary Union Crisis, Change, and Continuity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dermot Hodson
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
High Stakes

This chapter examines the role of the economic and monetary union (EMU) in the European Union’s macroeconomic policy-making. As of 2015, nineteen members of the euro area have exchanged national currencies for the euro and delegated responsibility for monetary policy and financial supervision to the European Central Bank (ECB). EMU is a high-stakes experiment in new modes of EU policy-making insofar as the governance of the euro area relies on alternatives to the traditional Community method, including policy coordination, intensive transgovernmentalism, and delegation to de novo bodies. The chapter first provides an overview of the origins of the EMU before discussing the launch of the single currency and the sovereign debt crisis. It also considers variations on the Community method, taking into account the ECB and the European Stability Mechanism.

US rates may rise but economic risks are rising faster

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
The Face ◽  
Equity Index

Subject Global equity market trends. Significance The four main US stock market indices began March at record highs, including the benchmark S&P 500 index at 2,400. Driven by expectations of stimulative and pro-business policies under the new US administration, equity markets are flying in the face of signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that interest rates will rise three times this year. The probability of a hike at the Fed’s March 14-15 meeting has risen above 80% on growing price pressures and stronger economic data, buoyed by hawkish comments from several Fed governors, including those who were previously dovish. Impacts Despite the post-election US bond market sell-off, around one-third of the stock of euro-area sovereign debt remains negative yielding. The gap between the two-year US Treasury bond yield and its German equivalent has widened to a record, a sign of rising monetary divergence. The euro lost 2% against the dollar in February as political risks escalated in the euro-area, centred around the French election. The emerging market MSCI equity index is 8.6% up this year, after losing 4.5% from November 9 to end-2016, a sign of higher confidence.

Rating sovereign debt in a monetary union – original sin by transnational governance

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Marten Körner ◽  
Hans-Michael Trautwein
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Original Sin ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that major credit rating agencies (CRAs) have been inconsistent in assessing the implications of monetary union membership for sovereign risks. It is frequently argued that CRAs have acted procyclically in their rating of sovereign debt in the European Monetary Union (EMU), underestimating sovereign risk in the early years and over-rating the lack of national monetary sovereignty since the onset of the Eurozone debt crisis. Yet, there is little direct evidence for this so far. While CRAs are quite explicit about their risk assessments concerning public debt that is denominated in foreign currency, the same cannot be said about their treatment of sovereign debt issued in the currency of a monetary union. Design/methodology/approach – While CRAs are quite explicit about their risk assessments concerning public debt that is denominated in foreign currency, the same cannot be said about their treatment of sovereign debt issued in the currency of a monetary union. This paper examines the major CRAs’ methodologies for rating sovereign debt and test their sovereign credit ratings for a monetary union bonus in good times and a malus, akin to the “original sin” problem of emerging market countries, in bad times. Findings – Using a newly compiled dataset of quarterly sovereign bond ratings from 1990 until 2012, the panel regression estimation results find strong evidence that EMU countries received a rating bonus on euro-denominated debt before the European debt crisis and a large penalty after 2010. Practical implications – The crisis has brought to light that EMU countries’ euro-denominated debt may not be considered as local currency debt from a rating perspective after all. Originality/value – In addition to quantifying the local currency bonus and malus, this paper shows the fundamental problem of rating sovereign debt of monetary union members and provide approaches to estimating it over time.

scholarly journals Volatility of yields of government bonds among GIIPS countries during the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas Heryan ◽  
Jan Ziegelbauer
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The aim of the paper is to estimate, how the volatility of yields of the Greek bonds affects yields’ volatilities of bonds in selected European countries during the period of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. We obtained data for 10-year bonds in a weekly frequency from January 2006 till the end of December 2014. To make a comparison of pre-crisis period, we firstly investigate a bond yields’ volatility before 15th September 2008, when U.S. Leman Brothers bankrupted and the global financial crisis had been reflected in full. However, the period of the global financial crisis could also negatively affect the development of government bonds. Therefore, the period after Leman Brothers’ bankruptcy has been excluded and our crisis period starts after 23rd April 2010, when Greece asked the IMF for financial help and the sovereign debt crisis had been reflected in full. Volatility models GARCH (1,1), IGARCH (1,1) and TARCH (1,1) were used as an estimation method. To examine the risk premium of all GIIPS economies (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we also compared the whole investigation with the developments of each spread against the yields of German government bonds. Our results clearly proved not only big differences between pre-crisis and crisis period, but also differences in output with the bond yield spreads. It was concluded that  there has been a higher impact of the Greek bond yields, as well as yield spreads volatility in 2010 and 2011, while it is on the lower level in pre-crisis period.

Negative euro-area bond yield universe will expand

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Debt Issuance ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Lift Off

Subject The euro-area government bonds outlook in the wake of the ECB's QE. Significance Strong demand among investors is pushing down yields on both government and corporate debt to unprecedentedly low levels, creating a rapidly expanding universe of negative bond yields. According to Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), approximately one-third of euro-area government bonds now trade with a negative yield, including more than 50% of German, French, Dutch and Austrian public debt. Of the ECB's 60 billion euros (65 billion dollars) of monthly bond purchases, about 40 billion euros are estimated to involve government bonds, exceeding net government debt issuance across the euro-area. Therefore, yields are likely to fall further in the short term. Impacts Strong demand for 'safe haven' assets is compressing yields on government and corporate bonds, with negative rates on many securities. About one-third of euro-area sovereign debt is currently trading with a negative yield. The ECB's bond purchases and a relative scarcity in debt issuance will contribute to lower euro-area bond yields further. Persistent fears about growth and inflation will also contribute to lower yields. Negative yields will exacerbate the mispricing of risk, as investors bring forward their expectations regarding the US rates lift-off.

scholarly journals Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 129-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Antonakakis ◽  
Christina Christou ◽  
Juncal Cunado ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Bond Yield
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