This paper describes the implementation of a new solution approach — Fletcher-Ponnambalam model (FP) — for risk management in hydropower system under deregulated electricity market. The FP model is an explicit method developed for the first and second moments of the storage state distributions in terms of moments of the inflow distributions. This method provides statistical information on the nature of random behaviour of the system state variables without any discretization and hence suitable for multi-reservoir problems. Also avoiding a scenario-based optimization makes it computationally inexpensive, as there is little growth to the size of the original problem. In this paper, the price uncertainty was introduced into the FP model in addition to the inflow uncertainty. Lake Nipigon reservoir system is chosen as the case study and FP results are compared with the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP). Our studies indicate that the method could achieve optimum operations, considering risk minimization as one of the objectives in optimization.Key words: reservoir operations, explicit method, uncertainty, stochastic programming, risk.
Analysis of a Stochastic Programming Model for Optimal Hydropower System Operation under a Deregulated Electricity Market by Considering Forecasting Uncertainty
