A risk evaluation method based on evidence theory

In order to make up for the shortage of public-private partnership (PPP) model, more and more sewage treatment PPP projects have adopted the asset-backed securitization (ABS) model. To ensure success of sewage treatment PPPABS projects, risk evaluation, which has remained scarcity and unscientific, is becoming an urgent problem to be solved. Firstly, this paper identifies critical risk factors by literature analysis and expert interview. The final risk system is established from the perspectives of macrorisks, basic asset risks, transaction structure risks, operational risks, and other risks, which include 17 second risk factors. Then, the overall risk evaluation method is proposed based on combination weight method and Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. Next, Beijing capital Co. Ltd. sewage treatment PPPABS project as a case is employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, awareness of existing risks, suggestions from law risk, quality risk, underwriting and issue risk, and credit enhancement are provided for sewage treatment PPPABS projects. All above studies are expected to provide helpful references for evaluating overall risk of sewage treatment PPPABS projects.

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A Practical Conflicting Role-based Cloud Security Risk Evaluation Method

Recent Advances in Computer Science and Communications ◽

10.2174/2666255813666191204145140 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 ◽

Author(s):

Jin Han ◽

Jing Zhan ◽

Xiaoqing Xia ◽

Xue Fan

Keyword(s):

Risk Evaluation ◽

Evaluation Method ◽

Service Providers ◽

Risk Preferences ◽

Cloud Service ◽

Cloud Security ◽

Third Party ◽

Security Evaluation ◽

Security Risk ◽

Cloud Users

Background: Currently, Cloud Service Provider (CSP) or third party usually proposes principles and methods for cloud security risk evaluation, while cloud users have no choice but accept them. However, since cloud users and cloud service providers have conflicts of interests, cloud users may not trust the results of security evaluation performed by the CSP. Also, different cloud users may have different security risk preferences, which makes it difficult for third party to consider all users' needs during evaluation. In addition, current security evaluation indexes for cloud are too impractical to test (e.g., indexes like interoperability, transparency, portability are not easy to be evaluated). Methods: To solve the above problems, this paper proposes a practical cloud security risk evaluation method of decision-making based on conflicting roles by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Aggregation of Individual priorities (AIP). Results: Not only can our method bring forward a new index system based on risk source for cloud security and corresponding practical testing methods, but also can obtain the evaluation result with the risk preferences of conflicting roles, namely CSP and cloud users, which can lay a foundation for improving mutual trusts between the CSP and cloud users. The experiments show that the method can effectively assess the security risk of cloud platforms and in the case where the number of clouds increased by 100% and 200%, the evaluation time using our methodology increased by only by 12% and 30%. Conclusion: Our method can achieve consistent decision based on conflicting roles, high scalability and practicability for cloud security risk evaluation.

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