AbstractThe general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this paper, is a joint considering and modelling of each technological processes, including fuel supply to heat sources (HS), generation of heat energy by these HS and its distribution on district heating network (HN). For solving this problem different methods and models are applied: statistical testing method, Markov random processes, methods of the theory of hydraulic circuits, basic laws of district heating and heat transfer processes, etc. In this paper the main attention is paid to the results of the practical application of methods and models of a comprehensive reliability analysis of DHS using the example of calculations performed for the actual DHS scheme of the Shelekhov city (Irkutsk region, Russia). Different stages of the case study are considered, including preparation of initial data, simulation modelling of fuel supply to HS, modelling of the Markov random process describing operate of DHS, calculation of post-failure modes in HN, evaluation of nodal reliability indices (RI), decomposition analysis of reliability. Based on the analysis of calculation results some preliminary directions are formulated to the increase of reliability for studied DHS. These data are the basis for a comprehensive reliability synthesis (optimization) of DHS, the solution of which is the subject of special perspective stage in development of the research.
Dynamic reliability analysis framework using fault tree and Dynamic Bayesian Network: A case study of NPP