Spatially explicit estimation of occupancy, detection probability and survey effort needed to inform conservation planning

Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models have gained enormous popularity to solve abundance estimation problems in ecology. In this study, we develop a novel Bayesian SECR model that disentangles two processes: one is the process of animal arrival within a detection region, and the other is the process of recording this arrival by a given set of detectors. We integrate this complexity into an advanced version of a recent SECR model involving partially identified individuals (Royle JA. Spatial capture-recapture with partial identity. arXiv preprint arXiv:1503.06873, 2015). We assess the performance of our model over a range of realistic simulation scenarios and demonstrate that estimates of population size N improve when we utilize the proposed model relative to the model that does not explicitly estimate trap detection probability (Royle JA. Spatial capture-recapture with partial identity. arXiv preprint arXiv:1503.06873, 2015). We confront and investigate the proposed model with a spatial capture–recapture dataset from a camera trapping survey of tigers (Panthera tigris) in Nagarahole study area of southern India. Detection probability is estimated at 0.489 (with 95% credible interval (CI) [0.430, 0.543]) which implies that the camera traps are performing imperfectly and thus justifying the use of our model in real world applications. We discuss possible extensions, future work and relevance of our model to other statistical applications beyond ecology. AMS classification codes: 62F15, 92D40

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GRAPH THEORY AS A PROXY FOR SPATIALLY EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS IN CONSERVATION PLANNING

Ecological Applications ◽

10.1890/06-1073.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 17 (6) ◽

pp. 1771-1782 ◽

Cited By ~ 198

Author(s):

Emily S. Minor ◽

Dean L. Urban

Keyword(s):

Graph Theory ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Population Models ◽

Spatially Explicit

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Designing an occupancy framework to monitor an endemic rainforest duck: Methodological and modelling considerations

10.1101/2020.02.03.931543 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shah Nawaz Jelil ◽

Murchana Parasar ◽

Laura Cancino ◽

Kimberly Cook

Keyword(s):

Detection Probability ◽

Site Occupancy ◽

Optimal Number ◽

Occupancy Models ◽

Occupancy Detection ◽

Habitat Factors ◽

Long Term Ecological Research ◽

Species Occupancy ◽

Future Population

AbstractUnderstanding species trend, decline or growth, is vital to further conservation efforts. Species-habitat relationship studies are equally important for conservation as it helps in understanding the habitat a particular species depends upon, i.e. habitat conservation. However, rare and endemic species are inherently difficult to study and occupancy models are especially useful in such cases. We conducted the first detection, non-detection survey for the white winged duck in Dehing Patkai Wildlife Sanctuary, India to assess site occupancy and test habitat factors that explain its occupancy. We found that white winged duck occupancy was low (0.27 ± 0.21 SE) and detection probability was 0.44 ± 0.30 SE. We found that increasing tree richness and decreasing elevation increased species occupancy. Detection probability was influenced by our effort in that detection increased with increasing number of survey hours. Using two standard approaches, we estimated the optimal number of sites and replicate surveys for future occupancy studies. We further present considerations for future surveys. Considering the sporadic and fragmented information available, we recommend long-term ecological research to better understand the present and future population trends of the species.

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The Landscape Species Approach: spatially-explicit conservation planning applied in the Adirondacks, USA, and San Guillermo-Laguna Brava, Argentina, landscapes

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605309000945 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 43 (04) ◽

pp. 476 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Karl A. Didier ◽

Michale J. Glennon ◽

Andrés Novaro ◽

Eric W. Sanderson ◽

Samantha Strindberg ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Conservation Planning ◽

Spatially Explicit

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Optimizing the power of human performed audio surveys for monitoring the endangered Houston toad using automated recording devices

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.11935 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e11935

Author(s):

Andrew R. MacLaren ◽

Paul S. Crump ◽

Michael R.J. Forstner

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Detection Probability ◽

Probability Of Detection ◽

Regulatory Agencies ◽

Critical Part ◽

Houston Toad ◽

A Site ◽

Survey Effort

Knowledge regarding the locations of populations of endangered species is a critical part of recovery and facilitates land use planning that avoids unnecessary impacts. Regulatory agencies often support the development of survey guidelines designed to standardize the methods and maximize the probability of detection, thereby avoiding incorrectly concluding a species is absent from a site. Here, using simulations with data collected using automated recording devices (ARDs) we evaluated the efficacy of the existing U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s survey requirements for the endangered Houston Toad (Anaxyrus houstonensis). We explored the effect of (1) increasing survey duration, (2) increasing the number of surveys, and (3) combinations of environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, humidity, rainfall) on the detection probability and the number of surveys needed to be 95% confident of absence. We found that increases in both the duration of the survey and the number of surveys conducted decreased the likelihood of incorrectly concluding the species was absent from the site, and that the number of surveys required to be 95% confident greatly exceeded the existing survey requirements. Targeting specific environmental conditions was also an effective way to decrease the number of surveys required but the infrequency in which these conditions occurred might make application difficult in some years. Overall, we suggest that the survey effort necessary to achieve confidence in the absence of Houston Toads at a site is more practically achievable with the use of ARDs, but this may not be suitable in all monitoring scenarios.

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Meeting species persistence targets under climate change: A spatially explicit conservation planning model

Diversity and Distributions ◽

10.1111/ddi.12562 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 703-713 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Diogo Alagador ◽

Jorge Orestes Cerdeira

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Planning Model ◽

Species Persistence

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Socialscape Ecology: Integrating social factors into spatially-explicit marine conservation planning

10.31235/osf.io/m2kqa ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Merrill Baker-Médard ◽

Katherine Concannon ◽

Courtney Gantt ◽

Sierra Moen ◽

Easton R White

Keyword(s):

Conservation Planning ◽

Stakeholder Participation ◽

Marine Conservation ◽

Social Processes ◽

Reserve Design ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Political Processes ◽

The Social ◽

Ecological Success ◽

Sea Tenure

Conservation planning is the process of locating, configuring, implementing and maintaining areas that are managed to promote the persistence of biodiversity. In this review, we analyze the ways in which social processes have been integrated into Marxan, a spatially explicit reserve design planning tool. Drawing on 89 peer-reviewed articles published 2005-2020, we analyze the ways in which human activity, values, and processes are spatialized in the environment; something we call socialscape ecology. To quantify this, we used nine categories including three count categories (social costs, targets, and parameters) and six rank categories (reliance on proxies versus direct observation, integration of temporal change, inclusion of sea tenure, analysis across scale, provisioning analysis, and stakeholder participation). We show that remarkably little change occurred over time across eight of the nine categories. One exception to this was an increase in number of studies that integrated temporal variation in their analysis. Ultimately, we argue that greater attention to and integration of social processes and variables into Marxan will improve marine managers’ understanding of not only the ecological but also the social, cultural and political processes that influence the social and ecological success of marine conservation efforts.

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Montane-breeding Bird Distribution and Abundance Across National Parks of Southwestern Alaska

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management ◽

10.3996/062017-jfwm-050 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 180-207 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Courtney L. Amundson ◽

Colleen M. Handel ◽

Daniel R. Ruthrauff ◽

T. Lee Tibbitts ◽

Robert E. Gill

Keyword(s):

Species Richness ◽

Land Cover ◽

National Parks ◽

Detection Probability ◽

National Park ◽

Alaska Range ◽

Alaska Peninsula ◽

Land Cover Types ◽

Survey Effort ◽

Southwestern Alaska

Abstract Between 2004 and 2008, biologists conducted an inventory of breeding birds during May–June primarily in montane areas (>100 m above sea level) of Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve (Aniakchak NMP), Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai NPP), and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (Lake Clark NPP) in southwestern Alaska. Observers conducted 1,021 point counts along 169 transects within 63 10-km × 10-km plots that were randomly selected and stratified by ecological subsection. We created hierarchical N-mixture models to estimate detection probability and abundance for 15 species, including 12 passerines, 2 galliforms, and 1 shorebird. We first modeled detection probability relative to observer, date within season, and proportion of dense vegetation cover around the point, then modeled abundance as a function of land cover composition (proportion of seven coarse-scale land cover types) within 300 m of the survey point. Land cover relationships varied widely among species but most showed selection for low to tall shrubs (0.2–5 m tall) and an avoidance of alpine and dwarf shrub–herbaceous cover types. After adjusting for species not observed, we estimated a minimum of 107 ± 9 species bred in the areas surveyed within the three parks combined. Species richness was negatively associated with elevation and associated land cover types. At comparable levels of survey effort (n = 721 birds detected), species richness was greatest in Lake Clark NPP (75 ± 12 species), lowest in Aniakchak NMP (45 ± 6 species), and intermediate at Katmai NPP (59 ± 10 species). Species richness was similar at equivalent survey effort (n = 973 birds detected) within the Lime Hills, Alaska Range, and Alaska Peninsula ecoregions (68 ± 8; 79 ± 11; 67 ± 11, respectively). Species composition was similar across all three parks and across the three major ecoregions (Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, Lime Hills) that encompass them. Our results provide baseline estimates of relative abundance and models of abundance and species richness relative to land cover that can be used to assess future changes in avian distribution. Additionally, these subarctic montane parks may serve as signals of landscape change and barometers for the assessment of population and distributional changes as a result of warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

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