Russian Factor in the Military and Political Conflicts of Europe in 1917–1920

Статья посвящена т. н. «русскому фактору» в период после окончания Первой мировой войны и до 1920г. Революционные события в России радикально изменили внешнеполитическую ситуацию на европейском театре и одновременно стали оказывать серьезное влияние на внутреннюю повестку стран участниц конфликта, благодаря активной политике Советской России по продвижению революционных идей и поддержке революционных движений в Европе. Подобная практика была вызвана не столько искренним желанием раздуть революционный пожар и безусловной верой в его возможность, сколько необходимостью физического выживания молодого «пролетарского государства» во враждебном капиталистическом окружении. В статье подробно рассматривается идеологическая подоплека внешней политики Советской России в это период и деятельность на этом поприще ее вождя В.И. Ленина, его попытки повлиять на общественно-политические процессы в Германии, Венгрии и Польше, а также анализируются изменения в идеологической повестке большевиков после провала советской политики по созданию плацдармов для продвижения революции в центральную Европу. Также в статье обращается внимание на то, что за внешней ширмой буржуазной революции в России явно проступают признаки целенаправленной политики по удалению с карты Европы и Азии империй — Османской, Германской, Австро-Венгерской и Российской, чему предшествовала активная компания по девальвации самих монархических институтов. Большевистская же политика по полному демонтажу прежней системы, несмотря на внешнюю враждебность идеологических установок, оказалась вполне приемлемой для тех, кто стремился не допустить пересборки Центральных держав. The article deals with the influence of the so-called Russian factor in the events following the end of the First World War up until 1920. The revolution in Russia radically changed the situation in Europe, having a major impact on the domestic and foreign policies of the belligerent nations, caused by active Soviet support for revolutionary movements in Europe. This practice stemmed not from a sincere desire to fan the revolutionary flames but rather from the survival instinct of the newly-established proletarian state, surrounded by hostile capitalistic countries. The article examines the ideological motivations behind Soviet Russia's foreign policy during this period and the activities of its leader, Vladimir Lenin, as well as his attempts to influence social and political processes in Germany, Hungary, and Poland. The study also analyzes the changes in the ideological agenda of the Bolsheviks after the failure of Soviet policy to create springboards for the advancement of the revolution into Central Europe. Moreover, the paper points out that the smokescreen of the revolution in Russia reveals clear signs of a concerted effort to wipe the Ottoman Empire, the German Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the Russian Empire from the map of Europe and Asia, preceded by an active campaign aimed at undermining the monarchic institutions themselves. Meanwhile, the Bolshevik policy that sought to completely dismantle the old regime, despite the hostility of its ideology, eventually proved perfectly acceptable for those who aimed to prevent the Central Powers from rising up again.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE MECHANISM FOR STRENGTHENING THE TRUST OF THE AUTHORITIES: THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

В статье представлена структура механизма укрепления доверия власти. Исследование механизма укрепления доверия власти актуально, так как в условиях распространения коронавирусной инфекции COVD-19 наблюдается снижение доверия населения к основным социальным институтам, в том числе политическим. Актуальность рассматриваемого вопроса связана с важностью выявления информационных, организационных, правовых и управленческих технологий формирования доверия, которые могут быть реализованы региональными органами власти. При этом доверие как социальный феномен интерпретируется с позиций трех базовых оснований: «позитивных ожиданий», «позитивного настроя» и «доверительных отношений». Посредством обобщения исследовательского опыта представителей структурно-функционального подхода в статье определены основные элементы механизма укрепления власти: субъект, объект, базовые нормы взаимодействия, средовые условия, взаимодействие, планируемый и реальный результат. На основе проведенного теоретического исследования делается вывод о том, что укрепление доверия власти предполагает взаимодействие между субъектами социально-политических процессов, представленными управленческими группами, средствами массовой информации, общественными объединениями и группами, гражданами, результатом которого становится гармонизация отношений общественных структур и органов власти. The paper presents the structure of the mechanism for strengthening the trust of the authorities. The study of the mechanism of strengthening the trust of the authorities is relevant, since in the conditions of the spread of coronavirus infection, there is a decrease in public confidence in the main social institutions, including political ones. The relevance of the issue under consideration is related to the importance of identifying information, organizational, legal and managerial technologies for building trust that can be implemented by regional authorities. The work defines the main elements of the mechanism: subject, object, basic norms of interaction, environmental conditions, interaction, planned and real result. Basing on a theoretical study, we conclude that strengthening the trust of the authorities involves interaction between the subjects of socio-political processes, represented by management groups, the media, public associations and groups, citizens, which results in the harmonization of relations between social structures and authorities.

Social Factors Influencing the Acquisition of the Romanian Language by Students Belonging to a Local Community Hungarian Minority

Research on language acquisition is a central theme in sociolinguistic research. Contemporary social, economic and political processes affect the life of communities and the languages what they speak. Globalization, migration and the enlargement of the European Union can significantly change the role and the future of majority and minority languages. In this research, we aim to reveal the family level language choice strategies of the Hungarian community in the small town of Margitha (Bihor County, Romania), discussing the role of family related social framework that positively or negatively influences the motivation of minority students to acquire knowledge of the Romanian language. For this purpose, we used both quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches. The results of research confirm that in multi-ethnic communities perhaps the most important, however at the same time the most vulnerable component of ethnic identity is the linguistic identity, which plays a key role in shaping the cultural landmarks and contents that determine the social integration of the individual. The positive family effects of socialization with the Hungarian language can be observed mostly in the ethnically homogeneous family. However, if one of the spouses is ethnic Romanian, the dominant language of communication within the family is more likely to be the Romanian language.

Agents of the Hidden Imam

In 874 CE, the eleventh Imam died, and the Imami community splintered. The institutions of the Imamate were maintained by the dead Imam's agents, who asserted they were in contact with a hidden twelfth Imam. This was the beginning of 'Twelver' Shiʿism. Edmund Hayes provides an innovative approach to exploring early Shiʿism, moving beyond doctrinal history to provide an analysis of the socio-political processes leading to the canonisation of the Occultation of the twelfth Imam. Hayes shows how these agents cemented their authority by reproducing the physical signs of the Imamate, including protocols of succession, letters and the alm taxes. Four of these agents were ultimately canonised as “envoys” but traces of earlier conceptions of authority remain embedded in the earliest reports. Hayes dissects the complex and contradictory Occultation narratives to show how, amidst the claims of numerous actors, the institutional positioning of the envoys allowed them to assert a quasi-Imamic authority in the absence of an Imam.

The Philosophical and Political Views of M. Ya. Ostrogorsky (1854–1921) and their Modern Significance

Theoretical studies of practical political life conducted by M. Ya. Ostrogorsky allow us to call him one of the founders of Russian political science and party science. His doctrine was the first systematized theory of the emergence, functioning and development of political parties, the laws of their evolution and the technology of activity. He described the tendency to establish an oligarchic leadership of political parties and the failure of moral regulators of political processes taking place in society.

In the mirror of transitology: The politics of power alternation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

In 2021 the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus celebrate the 30th anniversary of independence. According to the paradigm of transitology, the political development of a state since the departure from the authoritarian regime entails progressive liberalization and democratization of political processes. And, in accordance with the predominant theoretical approaches, the post-Soviet states were expected to follow this path. However, a closer look at the specifi c scenarios of power alternation in the Central Asia and the South Caucasus provides a much more mixed picture: here the change of ruling elites took very diff erent forms and shapes. The choice of scenario for the transfer of power was always determined by a complex combination of internal and external factors, including the nature and characteristics of the political system of a particular state, its ethnic com-position, the socio-economic situation and external environment. Nevertheless, it is possible to discern several key scenarios: a ‘revolutionary’ scenario, which implies a violent change of power; an intra-elite consensus; transition of power to a successor; a hereditary transmission of power; democratic elections; a resigna-tion of a president. A comparative analysis of the political processes unfolding in the region over the past 30 years shows that even institutionally the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are not ready yet for a competition policy. Moreover, the latter is generally viewed by their leaders as a threat to both the stability of the state and to the interests of the ruling elites. To this may be added the expansion of diff erent informal, archaic political practices across the post-Soviet space. The latter include the sacralization of power, when national interests are equated with the interests of the ruling clan and the whole national identity is built up around this nexus. All this shows the limits of classical transitology theory when it comes to political transformations in the post-Soviet space, which it is unable to explain, yet alone to predict their possible future development. Thus, there is a strong need to develop new theoretical frameworks that would better accommodate particularities of the regional political systems.

From Poisons to Antidotes: Algorithms as Democracy Boosters

Under what conditions can artificial intelligence contribute to political processes without undermining their legitimacy? Thanks to the ever-growing availability of data and the increasing power of decision-making algorithms, the future of political institutions is unlikely to be anything similar to what we have known throughout the last century, possibly with parliaments deprived of their traditional authority and public decision-making processes largely unaccountable. This paper discusses and challenges these concerns by suggesting a theoretical framework under which algorithmic decision-making is compatible with democracy and, most relevantly, can offer a viable solution to counter the rise of populist rhetoric in the governance arena. Such a framework is based on three pillars: (1) understanding the civic issues that are subjected to automated decision-making; (2) controlling the issues that are assigned to AI; and (3) evaluating and challenging the outputs of algorithmic decision-making.

The Market and Investors Reactions to Mariana’s and Brumadinho’s Environmental Disasters: Sentimental or Rational Decisions?

This research carried out event studies to analyze the reactions of the market and investors in Vale S.A. to the collapses of the Mariana and Brumadinho dams. It also assessed the extent to which the causes attributed to the market reactions to major disasters in previous research has helped to explain the reactions of the market and investors to the collapses of these dams. The analyses have shown that, in the case of the Fundão dam, there was a relevant reduction in the abnormal cumulative returns of common stocks and ADRs at the end of the eleven days of the collapse, despite the fact that the daily abnormal returns were not statistically significant. However, the abnormal trading volumes of these securities in the eleven days after the dam failure were generally negative and all statistically significant. In contrast, concerning the collapse of the Brumadinho dam, the abnormal returns on common stocks and ADRs were negative, relevant, and statistically significant, and, after the eleven days, the losses were considerable. The abnormal trading volumes of the securities were all positive and statistically significant, but the reactions of ADR investors were more intense than those of investors in common stocks. Examining the causal attributions made previously, there are indications that the market and investor reactions to the failures of the two dams were probably derived from the expectation that Vale and the other companies involved would incur severe losses and high contracting costs in political processes that would follow to the disasters, and from the difficulty the investors have had to assess the magnitude of these losses and costs.

Hyphenated Identities: Voices from the Watchtower During the Cypriot Civil War

As an implication of the ethnically and nationally diverse nature of Mediterranean polities, identification-driven boundary-making strategies bear considerable relevance for their political processes, both in the contemporary context and in the historical past. By utilizing a Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA), this study provides an interpretative exploration of Greek-Cypriot elite discursive framing strategies regarding Turkish-Cypriot and Greek-Cypriot ethno-national identity during the Cypriot Civil War (1963–1967). The available historical interpretations of this period lead us to expect an exclusionary strategy of boundary contraction to be more prevalent than the inclusionary one of boundary expansion in the discourse of Greek-Cypriot elites. Through an examination of a sample of primary textual sources, the analysis disconfirms such an expectation, as elite figures primarily constructed broader, inclusive frames of ethno-national identity during the civil war. The relative absence of boundary contraction and the prevalence of boundary expansion indicate the applicability of Wimmer’s (2008) universalist approach to ethnic boundary-making, in contrast to the expectations that are built by the Cyprus-specific historical evidence. This study thus lays the groundwork for future research to delineate the discursive framing strategies of elite figures in Cyprus and beyond the ethno-nationally divided island.

The unpredictable truth: A proposed roadmap for a ‘reflect-then-act’ approach to climate uncertainties and lessons learned from Norwegian municipalities

Several papers have through the years criticized climate policy decision making for being naïve with respect to how they view climate model outputs as objective facts and use the outputs directly to program policies. From this and similar observations, many of the papers conclude that there is a need for shifting to a new approach on how climate policymakers may relate to climate change uncertainties. The article proposes such a shift by presenting a roadmap on how to address uncertainties in climate change adaptation. It consists of three major elements: Firstly, to accept that in many cases we will not be able to reduce climate change uncertainties. Secondly, to diversify the way in which we describe climate change uncertainties, moving from a one-dimensional technical perspective to a multi-dimensional perspective which applies uncertainties also to social and political processes and systems. Thirdly, to change the way we address climate change uncertainties by moving from a predict-then-act to a reflect-then-act approach, implying that we must adapt to climate change even under high and various forms of uncertainties. Embedded in this last point is to accept unlike that of climate change mitigation, the precautionary principle will apply in many situations of climate change adaptation. In the last part of the article the usability of the proposed roadmap is demonstrated post-ante on four Norwegian cases of climate related natural hazard events.