A Bolder Conservation Future for Indonesia: Conserving Biodiversity, Carbon And Unique Ecosystem In Sulawesi

As more ambitious protected area (PA) targets for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework is set beyond Aichi Target 11, new spatial prioritisation thinking is required to expand protected areas to maximise different environmental values. Our study focuses on the biodiversity and forest-rich Indonesian island of Sulawesi, which has a terrestrial PA network that covers 10% of the island. We run scenarios to identified areas outside the current PA network and their representativeness of conservation features. We use Marxan to investigate trade-offs in the design of a larger PA network with varying coverage targets (17%, 30%, and 50%) that prioritises forest area, karst ecosystem, and carbon value as conservation features. Our first scenario required PAs to be selected at all times, and it required larger areas to meet these targets than our second scenario, which did not include existing PAs. The vast Mekongga, Banggai, and Popayato-Paguat landscapes were consistently identified as high priorities for protection in the various scenarios. The final section of our analysis used a spatially explicit three-phase approach to achieve this through PA expansion, the creation of new PAs, and the creation of corridors to connect existing PAs. Our findings identified 13,039 km2 of priority areas to be included in the current PA network, potentially assisting Indonesia in meeting the post-2020 GBF target if our approach is replicated elsewhere across Indonesia as a national or sub-national analysis like this study. We discuss various land management options through OECMs and the costs to deliver this strategy.

Ship traffic connects Antarctica’s fragile coasts to worldwide ecosystems

Antarctica, an isolated and long considered pristine wilderness, is becoming increasingly exposed to the negative effects of ship-borne human activity, and especially the introduction of invasive species. Here, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of ship movements into Antarctic waters and a spatially explicit assessment of introduction risk for nonnative marine species in all Antarctic waters. We show that vessels traverse Antarctica’s isolating natural barriers, connecting it directly via an extensive network of ship activity to all global regions, especially South Atlantic and European ports. Ship visits are more than seven times higher to the Antarctic Peninsula (especially east of Anvers Island) and the South Shetland Islands than elsewhere around Antarctica, together accounting for 88% of visits to Southern Ocean ecoregions. Contrary to expectations, we show that while the five recognized “Antarctic Gateway cities” are important last ports of call, especially for research and tourism vessels, an additional 53 ports had vessels directly departing to Antarctica from 2014 to 2018. We identify ports outside Antarctica where biosecurity interventions could be most effectively implemented and the most vulnerable Antarctic locations where monitoring programs for high-risk invaders should be established.

An update on the distribution of the coypu, Myocastor coypus, in Asia and Africa through published literature, citizen-science and online platforms

The coypu, Myocastor coypus, has been introduced worldwide for fur farming and is widely recognized as one of the most invasive alien mammals of the world, affecting natural ecosystems, crops and possibly human health. Here we present a comprehensive up-to-date review of its distribution and status in Asia and Africa. Using a multi-source approach, we collected occurrences from published literature as well as from online biodiversity platforms (e.g. GBIF, iNaturalist), video sharing platforms, and local experts. Additionally, we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the climatic suitability across Africa and Asia. We present an updated distribution map, including a total of 1506 spatially explicit records from 1973 to 2021, covering 1 African and 16 Asian countries. We find evidence for current populations in Kenya and five new countries since the last review of (Carter and Leonard, Wildl Soc Bull 30:162–175, 2002): Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam, and identify main clusters of coypu occurrence in Western (including Transcaucasia) and East Asia. We show that warm temperate and Mediterranean areas on both continents are predicted to be climatically suitable for the coypu and highlight not only areas of possible spread, but also potential data gaps, i.e. with high suitability and low availability of concrete information (e.g. China, Southern Russia). We emphasize the importance of citizen involvement and the urgency for coypu-targeted studies in data-poor regions to obtain a clear picture of the geographical distribution and to better address management strategies.

Deterministic approximation for population dynamics in the presence of advantageous mutants

Spatial stochastic simulations of evolutionary processes are computationally expensive. Here, based on spatially explicit decoupling approximations (SEDA) introduced by us earlier, we derive a deterministic approximation to a spatial stochastic birth-death process in the presence of two types: the less advantageous resident type and a more advantageous mutant. At the core of this technique are two essential steps: (1) a system of ODEs that approximate spatial interactions among neighboring individuals must be solved; (2) the time-variable has to be rescaled with a factor (called "alpha") that depends on the kinetic parameters of the wild type and mutant individuals. An explicit formula for alpha is derived, which is a power law of division and death rates of the two types. The method is relatively fast and provides excellent time-series agreement with the stochastic simulation results for the spatial agent-based model. The methodology can be used to describe hard selective sweep events, including the expansion of driver mutations in carcinogenesis, bacterial evolution, and aspects of resistance dynamics.

The Spatial Variation of Acoustic Water Column Data and Its Relationship with Reef-Associated Fish Recorded by Baited Remote Underwater Stereo-Videos off the Western Australia Coast

Spatially explicit information on coral fish species abundance and distribution is required for effective management. Nonextractive techniques, including echosounders and video census, can be particularly useful in marine reserves where the use of extractive methods is restricted. This study aimed to investigate the possibility of combining echosounders and baited remote underwater stereo-videos (stereo-BRUVs) in providing more holistic information on the distribution of demersal and semidemersal reef-associated fish. The spatial distribution of fish biomass was assessed using both methods in two small areas, one in Cockburn Sound (CS), a temperate body of water, and the other in the tropical waters of the Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP). The results showed high correlations between the acoustic and stereo-BRUV data in CS, suggesting the potential use of both for a better estimation of biomass in the area. The results for the NMP showed weaker correlations between the two datasets and highlighted the high variability of the system. Further studies are required, but our initial findings suggest a potential benefit of combining both techniques in the reef-associated fish distribution assessment.