Variances of link travel time estimates: implications for optimal routes

Estimates of travel time by public transit often rely on the calculation of a shortest-path between two points for a given departure time. Such shortest-paths are time-dependent and not always stable from one moment to the next. Given that actual transit passengers necessarily have imperfect information about the system, their route selection strategies are heuristic and cannot be expected to achieve optimal travel times for all possible departures. Thus an algorithm that returns optimal travel times at all moments will tend to underestimate real travel times all else being equal. While several researchers have noted this issue none have yet measured the extent of the problem. This study observes and measures this effect by contrasting two alternative heuristic routing strategies to a standard shortest-path calculation. The Toronto Transit Commission is used as a case study and we model actual transit operations for the agency over the course of a normal week with archived AVL data transformed into a retrospective GTFS dataset. Travel times are estimated using two alternative route-choice assumptions: 1) habitual selection of the itinerary with the best average travel time and 2) dynamic choice of the next-departing route in a predefined choice set. It is shown that most trips present passengers with a complex choice among competing itineraries and that the choice of itinerary at any given moment of departure may entail substantial travel time risk relative to the optimal outcome. In the context of accessibility modelling, where travel times are typically considered as a distribution, the optimal path method is observed in aggregate to underestimate travel time by about 3-4 minutes at the median and 6-7 minutes at the \nth{90} percentile for a typical trip.

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Minimum Sampling Size of Floating Cars for Urban Link Travel Time Distribution Estimation

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/0361198119834297 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2673 (3) ◽

pp. 24-43 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Meiping Yun ◽

Wenwen Qin

Keyword(s):

Sample Size ◽

Travel Time ◽

Real Time ◽

Time Distribution ◽

Ground Truth ◽

Sample Size Determination ◽

Minimum Sample Size ◽

Travel Time Distribution ◽

Minimum Sample ◽

Link Travel Time

Despite the wide application of floating car data (FCD) in urban link travel time estimation, limited efforts have been made to determine the minimum sample size of floating cars appropriate to the requirements for travel time distribution (TTD) estimation. This study develops a framework for seeking the required minimum number of travel time observations generated from FCD for urban link TTD estimation. The basic idea is to test how, with a decreasing the number of observations, the similarities between the distribution of estimated travel time from observations and those from the ground-truth vary. These are measured by employing the Hellinger Distance (HD) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests. Finally, the minimum sample size is determined by the HD value, ensuring that corresponding distribution passes the KS test. The proposed method is validated with the sources of FCD and Radio Frequency Identification Data (RFID) collected from an urban arterial in Nanjing, China. The results indicate that: (1) the average travel times derived from FCD give good estimation accuracy for real-time application; (2) the minimum required sample size range changes with the extent of time-varying fluctuations in traffic flows; (3) the minimum sample size determination is sensitive to whether observations are aggregated near each peak in the multistate distribution; (4) sparse and incomplete observations from FCD in most time periods cannot be used to achieve the minimum sample size. Moreover, this would produce a significant deviation from the ground-truth distributions. Finally, FCD is strongly recommended for better TTD estimation incorporating both historical trends and real-time observations.

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Operating Time Division for a Bus Route Based on the Recovery of GPS Data

Journal of Sensors ◽

10.1155/2017/1321237 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2017 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jian Wang ◽

Yang Cao

Keyword(s):

Travel Time ◽

Operating Time ◽

Time Of Day ◽

Operating Conditions ◽

Gps Data ◽

Recovery Method ◽

Speed Up ◽

Link Travel Time ◽

Partition Method ◽

Bus Travel Time

Bus travel time is an important source of data for time of day partition of the bus route. However, in practice, a bus driver may deliberately speed up or slow down on route so as to follow the predetermined timetable. The raw GPS data collected by the GPS device equipped on the bus, as a result, cannot reflect its real operating conditions. To address this concern, this study first develops a method to identify whether there is deliberate speed-up or slow-down movement of a bus. Building upon the relationships between the intersection delay, link travel time, and traffic flow, a recovery method is established for calculating the real bus travel time. Using the dwell time at each stop and the recovered travel time between each of them as the division indexes, a sequential clustering-based time of day partition method is proposed. The effectiveness of the developed method is demonstrated using the data of bus route 63 in Harbin, China. Results show that the partition method can help bus enterprises to design reasonable time of day intervals and significantly improve their level of service.

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