Link Travel Time Estimation in Double-Queue-Based Traffic Models

Double queue concept has gained its popularity in dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) modeling because it can properly model real traffic dynamics. While directly solving such double-queue-based DUE problems is extremely challenging, an approximation scheme called first-order approximation was proposed to simplify the link travel time estimation of DUE problems in a recent study without evaluating its properties and performance. This paper focuses on directly investigating the First-In-First-Out property and the performance of the first-order approximation in link travel time estimation by designing and modeling dynamic network loading (DNL) on single-line stretch networks. After model formulation, we analyze the First-In-First-Out (FIFO) property of the first-order approximation. Then a series of numerical experiments is conducted to demonstrate the FIFO property of the first-order approximation, and to compare its performance with those using the second-order approximation, a point queue model, and the cumulative inflow and exit flow curves. The numerical results show that the first-order approximation does not guarantee FIFO and also suggest that the second-order approximation is recommended especially when the link exit flow is increasing. The study provides guidance for further study on proposing new methods to better estimate link travel times.

Analysis on Link Travel Time Estimation considering Time Headway Based on Urban Road RFID Data

In this paper, the calculation method of the link travel time is firstly analysed in the continuous traffic flow by using the detection data collected when vehicles pass through urban links, and a theoretical derivation formula for estimating link travel time is proposed by considering the typical vehicle travel time and the time headway deviation upstream and downstream of the links as the main parameters. A typical vehicle analysis method based on link travel time similarity is proposed, and the theoretical formula is optimized, respectively. Then, an estimation formula based on maximum travel time similarity and an estimation formula based on maximum travel time confidence interval similarity are proposed, respectively. Finally, when analysing the fitting conditions, the collected data from urban roads in Nanjing are used to verify the proposed travel time estimation method based on the radio frequency identification devices. The results show that time headway deviation converges to zero when the hourly vehicle volume is more than 20 veh/h in the certain flow direction, and there are more positive and negative fluctuations when the hourly vehicle volume is less than 10 veh/h in the certain flow direction. The accuracy of the proposed improved method based on typical vehicle travel time estimation is significantly improved by considering the typical vehicle travel time, and typical vehicles on the road segment mainly exist at the tail of the traffic platoon in the corresponding period.

From Massive Trajectory Data to Traffic Modeling for Better Behavior Prediction in a Usage-Based Insurance Context

Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) is an insurance framework that has made its appearance in the last few years. It allows direct measurement of the traveling of policyholders, hence the growing interest of the industry to better understand driving behaviors. UBI generates large data volumes, from which events can be extracted, like harsh brakes or accelerations. Still, these events are measured without contextual information, which limits their explanatory power. Traffic is one of these types of contextual information that may have great potential, but access to such data remains an issue. Solutions exist, like traffic data from external providers, but for insurance companies that conduct business over large areas, this could result in very large costs. This paper demonstrates that data from insurance companies acquired via UBI can be used to model traffic. A method based on link travel time is proposed and tested on four Canadian cities. Then, routes created with the model are compared with those created using Google Maps. The results show that for 38 routes with an average length of around 5 km, the difference between the travel time of the routes of the proposed model and Google Maps is as small as one second on average.

Link Cost Function and Link Capacity for Mixed Traffic Networks

Link cost function and link capacity are critical factors in traffic assignment modeling. Popular link cost functions like the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) function have well-known drawbacks and are not suitable for mixed traffic conditions where a variety of vehicle classes use the road in a non-lane-based movement. Similarly, capacity is generally considered as a constant value. However, in mixed traffic conditions, capacity is not constant, but a function of vehicle class composition. Toward addressing these issues, this paper proposes a link cost function in relation to link travel time and link capacity in relation to vehicular traffic flow for mixed traffic conditions. The functions are developed based on the kinematic wave model, which is popularly used for estimating traffic dynamics on the roads. The developed link cost function and link capacity use field measurable parameters that incorporate mixed traffic features. The functions are validated against empirical data obtained from 12 signal cycles from two different signalized intersections in Chennai, India, representing different scenarios of mixed traffic, and it was found that the results match well with the empirical data.

Resilient Schedule Coordination for a Bus Transit Corridor

Providing convenient transit services at reasonable cost is important for transit agencies. Timed transfers that schedule vehicles from various routes to arrive at some transfer stations simultaneously (or nearly so) can significantly reduce wait times in transit networks, while stochastic passenger flows and complex operating environments may reduce this improvement. Although transit priority methods have been applied in some high-density cities, operating delays may cause priority failures. This paper proposes a resilient schedule coordination method for a bus transit corridor, which analyzes link travel time, passenger loading delay, and priority signal intersection delay. It maximizes resilience based on realistic passenger flow volume, whether or not transit priority is provided. The data accuracy and result validity are improved with automatically collected data from multiple bus routes in a corridor. The Yan’an Road transit corridor in Shanghai is used as a case study. The results show that the proposed method can increase the system resilience by balancing operation cost and passenger-based cost. It also provides a guideline for realistic bus schedule coordination.

Reliable Estimation of Urban Link Travel Time Using Multi-Sensor Data Fusion

Travel time is one of the most critical indexes to describe urban traffic operating states. How to obtain accurate and robust travel time estimates, so as to facilitate to make traffic control decision-making for administrators and trip-planning for travelers, is an urgent issue of wide concern. This paper proposes a reliable estimation method of urban link travel time using multi-sensor data fusion. Utilizing the characteristic analysis of each individual traffic sensor data, we first extract link travel time from license plate recognition data, geomagnetic detector data and floating car data, respectively, and find that their distribution patterns are similar and follow logarithmic normal distribution. Then, a support degree algorithm based on similarity function and a credibility algorithm based on membership function are developed, aiming to overcome the conflicts among multi-sensor traffic data and the uncertainties of single-sensor traffic data. The reliable fusion weights for each type of traffic sensor data are further determined by integrating the corresponding support degree with credibility. A case study was conducted using real-world data from a link of Jingshi Road in Jinan, China and demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy and reliability of link travel time estimations in urban road systems.