Prediction of Vehicular Traffic Flow using Levenberg-Marquardt Artificial Neural Network Model: Italy Road Transportation System

In the last decades, the Italian road transport system has been characterized by severe and consistent traffic congestion and in particular Rome is one of the Italian cities most affected by this problem. In this study, a LevenbergMarquardt (LM) artificial neural network heuristic model was used to predict the traffic flow of non-autonomous vehicles. Traffic datasets were collected using both inductive loop detectors and video cameras as acquisition systems and selecting some parameters including vehicle speed, time of day, traffic volume and number of vehicles. The model showed a training, test and regression value (R2) of 0.99892, 0.99615 and 0.99714 respectively. The results of this research add to the growing body of literature on traffic flow modelling and help urban planners and traffic managers in terms of the traffic control and the provision of convenient travel routes for pedestrians and motorists.

What and How long: Prediction of Mobile App Engagement

User engagement is crucial to the long-term success of a mobile app. Several metrics, such as dwell time, have been used for measuring user engagement. However, how to effectively predict user engagement in the context of mobile apps is still an open research question. For example, do the mobile usage contexts (e.g., time of day) in which users access mobile apps impact their dwell time? Answers to such questions could help mobile operating system and publishers to optimize advertising and service placement. In this article, we first conduct an empirical study for assessing how user characteristics, temporal features, and the short/long-term contexts contribute to gains in predicting users’ app dwell time on the population level. The comprehensive analysis is conducted on large app usage logs collected through a mobile advertising company. The dataset covers more than 12K anonymous users and 1.3 million log events. Based on the analysis, we further investigate a novel mobile app engagement prediction problem—can we predict simultaneously what app the user will use next and how long he/she will stay on that app? We propose several strategies for this joint prediction problem and demonstrate that our model can improve the performance significantly when compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. Our work can help mobile system developers in designing a better and more engagement-aware mobile app user experience.

The helpfulness of web-based mental health and wellbeing forums for providing peer support for young people: A cross-sectional exploration (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Young people are increasingly going online to seek out web-based support for their mental health and wellbeing. Peer support forums are popular with this age group, with young individuals valuing the fact that they are available 24/7, providing a safe and anonymous space for exploration. Currently, little systematic evaluation of the helpfulness of such groups in providing support has been conducted. OBJECTIVE This study examines the helpfulness of the support offered within web-based peer support forums for young people. It specifically investigates the self-reported user-ratings of helpfulness reported through the completion of a developing experience measure. The ratings are used to consider the further development of the measure and to reflect upon the overall helpfulness of the forums as indicated by the reported scores. METHODS The study makes use of routinely collected practice-based outcome data from online mental health forums for young people. These forums are hosted by the UK based web-based therapy and support service, Kooth.com. A cross-sectional design has been employed to explore the outcomes that have been reported by those accessing the forums using a Peer Online Community Experience Measure (POCEM). To consider the helpfulness in general, a total of 23,443 completed POCEMs from the 2020 calendar year were used. A second dataset of 17,137 completed POCEMs from the same year was used to consider whether other indicators, such as the time of day of the post, had an impact upon the helpfulness rating. RESULTS Female users between the ages of 11 and 16 predominantly completed the POCEM. This is in keeping with the majority of those using the service. 74.6% of the scores on the POCEM indicated the individuals found the posts helpful, and there was some indication that males were more likely to report obtaining intrapersonal support, whilst females obtained interpersonal support. Further, the POCEM scores reflected the internal consistency of the measure and provided an insight into the way that young people made use of the peer support resource. For instance, posts were rated more helpful if individuals spent a longer time reading them, and the topics discussed changed throughout the day with more mental health issues being discussed later at night. CONCLUSIONS The results appear to demonstrate that overall, the young people involved in this study found web-based peer support helpful. They indicate that that peer support can provide an important strand of care within a supportive mental health ecosystem, particularly during time periods when in-person support is typically closed. However, caution is needed when interpreting the results of this study. Whilst such services are incredibly well used, they have received little research attention to date. As such, further investigation into what constitutes helpful and unhelpful peer support is needed.

Simulating Physiological Potentials of Daylight Variables in Lighting Design

A holistic approach to daylight dynamics in our built environment can have beneficial outcomes for both physiological and visual effects on humans. Simulations of how daylight variables affect light levels on the horizontal work plane are compared to their physiological effects, measured as melanopic EDI (Melanopic Equivalent Daylight Illuminance) on a vertical plane. The melanopic EDI levels were calculated in a simulated office space in ALFA software (Adaptive Lighting for Alertness) employing the daylight variables of orientation, time of day, season, sky conditions and spatial orientation. Results were analyzed for how daylight design can contribute to the physiological effects of dynamic light in office buildings. Daylight is shown to be a sufficient light source in the majority of cases to meet the recommended values of EDI and provide the suggested horizontal lx level according to the Danish Standards. A mapping of daylight conditions, focusing on the specific factors presented here, can provide guidelines in the design process and future smart building systems. The complex interrelationship between these parameters is important to acknowledge when working with daylight dynamics as a sustainable element in architecture and lighting design.

Appropriateness of Antibiotic Prescribing in Patients Discharged From a Community Hospital Emergency Department

IMPORTANCE: Every year, thousands of emergency department (ED) visits result in patients being discharged with oral antibiotic prescriptions. Published studies that assess the appropriateness of these antibiotic regimens are limited. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the appropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions written for patients discharged from a community hospital’s ED. ENDPOINTS: The primary objective was to determine the overall percent of appropriate antibiotic prescriptions for patients discharged from the ED. Secondary objectives included the following: identify reasons for inappropriateness categorized by antibiotic selection, dose, duration, and allergies; identify the most common antibiotics prescribed inappropriately as well as the most common disease states that led to inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics; and analyze prescribing trends based on provider type and time of day the prescription was written. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients eligible for inclusion were adults age 18 and older who presented to the ED during four chosen weeks in 2019 and who were discharged with oral antibiotics. Extracted electronic health record data was reviewed to identify the discharge diagnosis for each patient that meets the inclusion criteria. Pertinent information gathered from the patients’ medical records along with a validated antimicrobial assessment tool were utilized to determine the level of appropriateness of the prescribed antibiotic regimens. RESULTS: A total of 76% of the prescribed antibiotics were appropriate, 16% were inappropriate, and the remaining 8% were not assessable. Duration was the most common reason for a regimen to not be optimal. The most frequently inappropriately prescribed antibiotics included cephalexin (but it is noted cephalexin was included in almost half of the antibiotic regimens in this study), clindamycin, and azithromycin. Infections that were most frequently treated inappropriately were skin and soft tissue infections, dental infections, and sinusitis. Overall, medical residents prescribed the highest percent of appropriate regimens, and the time of day that had the highest percent of appropriate prescriptions was third shift (11 p.m. to 7 a.m.). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Almost half of all the nonoptimal antibiotic regimens had an excessive duration. Targeted local education efforts and future clinical decision support can facilitate appropriate prescribing of discharge antibiotics from the ED, ultimately improving antimicrobial stewardship within the community.

Spectral dependency of the human pupillary light reflex. Influences of pre-adaptation and chronotype

Non-visual photoreceptors (ipRGCs) and rods both exert a strong influence on the human pupil, yet pupil models regularly use cone-derived sensitivity as their basis. This inconsistency is further exacerbated by the fact that circadian effects can modulate the wavelength sensitivity. We assessed the pupillary reaction to narrowband light stimuli in the mesopic range. Pupil size for eighty-three healthy participants with normal color vision was measured in nine experimental protocols with varying series of continuous or discontinuous light stimuli under Ganzfeld conditions, presented after 90 seconds of dark adaptation. One hundred and fifty series of stimulation were conducted across three experiments, and were analyzed for wavelength-dependency on the normalized pupillary constriction (nPC), conditional on experimental settings and individual traits. Traits were surveyed by questionnaire; color vision was tested by Ishihara plates or the Lanthony D15 test. Data were analyzed with generalized additive mixed models (GAMM). The normalized pupillary constriction response is consistent with L+M-cone derived sensitivity when the series of light stimuli is continuous, i.e., is not interrupted by periods of darkness, but not otherwise. The results also show that a mesopic illuminance weighing led to an overall best prediction of pupillary constriction compared to other types of illuminance measures. IpRGC influence on nPC is not readily apparent from the results. When we explored the interaction of chronotype and time of day on the wavelength dependency, differences consistent with ipRGC influence became apparent. The models indicate that subjects of differing chronotype show a heightened or lowered sensitivity to short wavelengths, depending on their time of preference. IpRGC influence is also seen in the post-illumination pupil reflex if the prior light-stimulus duration is one second. However, shorter wavelengths than expected become more important if the light-stimulus duration is fifteen or thirty seconds. The influence of sex on nPC was present, but showed no interaction with wavelength. Our results help to define the conditions, under which the different wavelength sensitivities in the literature hold up for narrowband light settings. The chronotype effect might signify a mechanism for strengthening the individual´s chronotype. It could also be the result of the participant’s prior exposure to light (light history). Our explorative findings for this effect demand replication in a controlled study.

A framework for the quantification of soundscape diversity using Hill numbers

1. Soundscape studies are increasingly common to capture landscape-scale ecological patterns. Yet, several aspects of soundscape diversity quantification remain unexplored. Although some processes influencing acoustic niche usage may operate in the 24h domain, most acoustic indices only capture the diversity of sounds co-occurring in sound files at a specific time of day. Moreover, many indices do not consider the relationship between the spectral and temporal traits of sounds simultaneously. To provide novel insights into landscape-scale patterns of acoustic niche usage at broader temporal scales, we present a workflow to quantify soundscape diversity through the lens of functional ecology. 2. Our workflow quantifies the functional diversity of sound in the 24-hour acoustic trait space. We put forward an entity, the Operational Sound Unit (OSU), which groups sounds by their shared functional properties. Using OSUs as our unit of diversity measurement, and building on the framework of Hill numbers, we propose three metrics that capture different aspects of acoustic trait space usage: (i) soundscape richness; (ii) soundscape diversity; (iii) soundscape evenness. We demonstrate the use of these metrics by (a) simulating soundscapes to assess if the indices possess a set of desirable behaviours; and (b) quantifying the soundscape richness and evenness along a gradient in species richness to illustrate how these metrics can be used to shed unique insights into patterns of acoustic niche usage. 3. We demonstrate that: (a) the indices outlined herein have desirable behaviours; and (b) the soundscape richness and evenness are positively correlated with the richness of soniferous species. This suggests that the acoustic niche space is more filled where taxonomic richness is higher. Moreover, species-poor acoustic communities have a higher proportion of rare sounds and use the acoustic space less effectively. As the correlation between the soundscape and taxonomic richness is strong (>0.8) and holds at low sampling intensities, soundscape richness could serve as a proxy for taxonomic richness. 4. Quantifying the soundscape diversity through the lens of functional ecology using the analytical framework of Hill numbers generates novel insights into acoustic niche usage at a landscape scale and provides a useful proxy for taxonomic richness measurement.