scholarly journals Alternative Definitions of the Budget Deficit and its Impact on the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in South Africa

2002 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVINA JACOBS ◽  
NJ SCHOEMAN ◽  
JH VAN HEERDEN
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Eisner
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
News Media ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Relevant Model ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Economics Profession

Whatever the real or imagined ills of the economy, the news media, most politicians and a fair proportion of the economics profession are quick to point to the culprit: “the budget deficit.” No matter that few appear to know or care precisely what deficit they are talking about or how it is measured. No matter that few bother to explain in terms of a relevant model just how government deficits may be expected to impact the economy. No matter that few offer any empirical data to sustain their judgments. I believe there are serious problems with our fiscal policy. These relate to fundamental national priorities and the provision of public goods, now and for the future. But the current size of the federal deficit is not “our number one economic problem,” if indeed it is a problem at all.

scholarly journals The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Italy: A Long-Term Perspective

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvana Bartoletto ◽  
Bruno Chiarini ◽  
Elisabetta Marzano
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA SINCE 1994

2007 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
stan du plessis ◽  
ben smit ◽  
federico sturzenegger
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals The sustainability of Swedish fiscal policy: a re-examination

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arcade Ndoricimpa
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Slope Coefficient ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Structural Changes ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

PurposeThis study reexamines the sustainability of fiscal policy in Sweden.Design/methodology/approachTo test the sustainability of fiscal policy, two approaches are used; the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010), testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model and time-varying cointegration test of Bierens and Martins (2010), and Martins (2015).FindingsUsing the first approach of testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, the results indicate that government spending and revenue are cointegrated with two breaks. An estimation of a two-break long-run model shows that the slope coefficient increases from 0.678 to 0.892 from the first to the second regime, implying that fiscal deficits were weakly sustainable in the first two regimes, from 1800 to 1943, and from 1944 to 1974. Further, results from time-varying cointegration test indicate that cointegration between spending and revenue in Sweden is time-varying. Fiscal deficits were found to be unsustainable for the periods 1801–1811, 1831–1838, 1853–1860 , 1872–1882, 1897–1902, 1929–1940 and 1976–1982 and weakly sustainable over the rest of the study period.Research limitations/implicationsA number of implications arise from this study: (1) Accounting for breaks in cointegration analysis and in the estimation of the level relationship between spending and revenue is very important because ignoring breaks may lead to an overestimated slope coefficient and hence a bias on the magnitude of fiscal deficit sustainability. (2) In testing for cointegration between spending and revenue, assuming a constant cointegrating slope when it is actually time-varying can also be misleading because deficits can be sustainable for a period of time and unsustainable over another period.Originality/valueThe contribution of this study is three-fold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a period of two centuries, from 1800 to 2011. Second, because of the importance of structural change in economics, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010) to test for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, as well as time-varying cointegration of Bierens and Martins (2010) and Martins (2015).

Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece

1999 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stelios Makrydakis ◽  
Elias Tzavalis ◽  
Athanassios Balfoussias
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals Inequality and Fiscal Redistribution in Middle Income Countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru and South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Lustig
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Income Poverty ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Incidence Analysis ◽  
Consumption Taxes

AbstractThis paper examines the redistributive impact of fiscal policy for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru and South Africa using comparable fiscal incidence analysis with data from around 2010. The largest redistributive effect is in South Africa and the smallest in Indonesia. Success in fiscal redistribution is driven primarily by redistributive effort (share of social spending to GDP in each country) and the extent to which transfers/subsidies are targeted to the poor and direct taxes targeted to the rich. While fiscal policy always reduces inequality, this is not the case with poverty. When pensions are not considered a transfer, fiscal policy increases poverty in Brazil (over and above market income poverty) due to high consumption taxes on basic goods. Total spending on education is pro-poor except for Indonesia, where it is neutral in absolute terms. Health spending is pro-poor in Brazil, Chile and South Africa, roughly neutral in absolute terms in Mexico, and not pro-poor in Indonesia and Peru.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Debt Issuance on Short-Term interest rates in Indonesia

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 301
Author(s):  
Sri Adiningsih
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes whether the expansionary fiscal policy funded by issuing debt instruments in financial markets will increase short-term interest rates. If  the expansionary fiscal policy increases interest rates, which decrease private spending especially investment, crowding out occurs. This is interesting because global economic crisis has encouraged many countries to run large budget deficits to stimulate the economy. Indonesia has also run budget deficit during this crisis and even in years before. The impact of such a policy can be significant because Indonesia’s debt market is still narrow and shallow. Therefore, its capability of absorbing the government debt instruments without influencing the private sector funding is limited. This study tests whether the crowding out occurs in Indonesia using a time series econometric model inspired by Cebula and Cuellar’s model. The Cointegration Regression and Error Correction Model (ECM) are used in this study. Monthly data from April 2000 to December 2008 are used for overnight real interbank call money interest rates, real net government bond issues in trading, real narrow money supply, real rate of one-month Certificate of Bank Indonesia, growth of Gross Domestic Product, and real net international capital flows. This empirical study shows that the crowding out problem occurred in Indonesia during the period. This indicates that financing budget deficit in Indonesia by issuing debt instruments in the financial markets has a negative impact on the private sector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document