A Symmetry and Asymmetry Investigation of the Nexus Between Environmental Sustainability, Renewable Energy, Energy Innovation, and Trade: Evidence From Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Selected MENA Countries

The motivation of the study is to gauge the role of renewable energy consumption (REC), energy innovation (EI), and total trade (TR) on environmental sustainability (ES) in selected MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the period 1980–2018 under the assumption of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The study implemented several econometrical tools, including structural break unit root test, Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), nonlinear ARDL, and Granger causality test under error correction term. Variables properties test detected that all the variables are stationary after the first difference but neither exposed to stationary after the second difference. The test statistics of the combined cointegration test documented a long-run association between ES, RE, EI, and TR, which is valid for both countries concerned. Regarding EKC concern, study findings with ARDL and nonlinear ARDL validated the EKC hypothesis for Tunisia and Morocco. Finally, the direction causality test documented unidirectional causality between renewable energy and ES, trade and ES, but the feedback hypothesis holds between EI and ES. We can advocate for specific sectoral environmental reforms in Tunisia and Morocco and suggest continuous environmentally friendly technologies by combining study findings. At the same time, subsidies on nonrenewable energy should be reduced, and green trade policies to help advance sustainable development should be implemented.

Effect of Deficit Financing on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration and VECM Approach

Bangladesh has been encountering a budget deficit since 1972 because of a decrease in the source of income. This paper aims to examine the effect of budget deficit financing on economic growth in Bangladesh throughout 1981–2018. Using secondary data, the paper uses the cointegration test, vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and Granger causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test outcomes find that the study variables are cointegrated and subsequently have a long-run nexus among the variables. The study finds that in the long run, government domestic debt (GDD), government external debt (GEXD) and money supply (MS) affect positively economic growth (RGDP). The outcomes of the VECM approach express that in the short run, GDD, external debt and MS negatively affect economic growth. Also, short-run causality runs from the GDD, GEXD and MS to economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows unidirectional causal nexus running from GDD to RGDP, RGDP to external debt and GEXD to MS, and bidirectional causal nexus between MS and GDD in Bangladesh. The study suggests the governments should enhance moderate levels of domestic and external borrowing and uses it in productive and efficient ways to accelerate economic growth in Bangladesh.

Using Facebook data to predict the 2016 U.S. presidential election

We use 19 billion likes on the posts of top 2000 U.S. fan pages on Facebook from 2015 to 2016 to measure the dynamic ideological positions for politicians, news outlets, and users at the national and state levels. We then use these measures to derive support rates for 2016 presidential candidates in all 50 states, to predict the election, and to compare them with state-level polls and actual vote shares. We find that: (1) Assuming that users vote for candidates closer to their own ideological positions, support rates calculated using Facebook predict that Trump will win the electoral college vote while Clinton will win the popular vote. (2) State-level Facebook support rates track state-level polling averages and pass the cointegration test, showing two time series share similar trends. (3) Compared with actual vote shares, polls generally have smaller margin of errors, but polls also often overestimate Clinton’s support in right-leaning states. Overall, we provide a method to forecast elections at low cost, in real time, and based on passively revealed preference and little researcher discretion.

THE NEXUS BETWEEN THEEXTERNAL SECTOR AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1985 -2018

The interaction between different economies in the global market could have impact on their key economic variables. Hence, this study set out to examine the impact of the external sector on a key economic variable in Nigeria being Inflation. The study utilized time series data from 1985 to 2018 which was subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The next step was to subject the data to an ARDL cointegration test. The result showed that in the short run and long run external sector variables do not have any significant impact on inflation in Nigeria. The paper suggests that money supply and fiscal policy should be used to control inflation in Nigeria.

Cointegration test for the long-run economic relationships of East Africa community: evidence from a meta-analysis

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to test and analyze the equilibrium economic relationships of the East Africa Community (EAC).Design/methodology/approachTo attain the study's purpose the authors applied the Johansen cointegration test, including long-run structural modeling (LRSM), vector-error-correlation-model (VECM) and variance-decomposition (VDC).FindingsAt I(1), both Philips‐Peron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests show that the East Africa member states' economies are cointegrated. The result was further substantiated by the tests based on Johansen cointegration and VECM procedures, showing significant long-run and short-run economic relations. The result further reveals that despite some uncommon issues among member states such as Tanzania and Kenya, however, their economic relationships remain significant though it is negative. Moreover, the finding revealed positive and significant short-run economic relationships between Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda.Originality/valueThe paper applies the cointegration techniques in the context of EAC. The result is likely to be adding value to the policymaker and also to the existing literature on the subject. This may trigger policy implications and open new research direction within the region and out.

Cointegration Test and Projection of Total Rubber and Tin Production and Their Effect on The Environment in Province of Bangka Belitung Island

The cointegration test in this study aims to see the long-term balance relationship between the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands. This time series test uses historical data from 2002-2015. In addition to seeing the cointegration relationship, it will also be seen how the projection results are produced until 2025. This cointegration test results that the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands does not have a significant relationship between the two variables as evidenced by a probability value of 0.1366. The probability value that is greater than 5% of the alpha level means that these two variables are independent of each other and the projection results show that tin and rubber production has an upward trend from 2016-2025. The projected value of tin production is not as high as the projection value of rubber plantations with a percentage difference of 11.67%. It is also time for the community to develop the plantation sector and move away from the mining sector which has been undertaken in line with the increasing environmental damage that has been generated.

Analysis of the relationship between innovation, CO2 emission and renewable energy in Turkey

Due to rapid technological development and increase in economic activities, environmental problems such as global warming and climate change, CO2 emission, environmental pollution are among significant global issues. In recent years, Eco-innovations, which are intended to benefit the environment and contribute to environmental sustainability, bring energy by saving technology, adding a new dimension to the concept of innovation as well as bringing its environmentalist face to the fore. In this study, the relationship between innovation, CO2 emissions and renewable energy for the 1990-2019 period for Turkey was examined and analyzed with Bayer-Hanck (2012) cointegration test together with Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) causality tests. According to Bayer-Hanck (2012) cointegration test, it was concluded that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. In line with the overlapping findings of the causality analyses of Toda Yamamoto (1995) and Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006), it was concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship from CO2 emissions to renewable energy consumption.

Recovering cointegration via wavelets in the presence of non-linear patterns

Johansen’s Cointegration Test (JCT) performs remarkably well in finding stable bivariate cointegration relationships. Nonetheless, the JCT is not necessarily designed to detect such relationships in presence of non-linear patterns such as structural breaks or cycles that fall in the low frequency portion of the spectrum. Seasonal adjustment procedures might not detect such non-linear patterns, and thus, we expose the difficulty in identifying cointegrating relations under the traditional use of JCT. Within several Monte Carlo experiments, we show that wavelets can empower more the JCT framework than the traditional seasonal adjustment methodologies, allowing for identification of hidden cointegrating relationships. Moreover, we confirm these results using seasonally adjusted time series as US consumption and income, gross national product (GNP) and money supply M1 and GNP and M2.

Assessing the Impact of Policy Measures in Reducing the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of South Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic is considered to be the world’s most urgent health disaster and the greatest challenge humanity has faced since World War II. One of the most significant concerns is the effectiveness of the extraordinary efforts undertaken around the world to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. This study applied the Westerlund cointegration test and the Pooled Mean Group–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to investigate the effectiveness of government policy measures in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic using weekly data for the period 1 January 2020 to 31 May 2021. The results of the Westerlund cointegration test validate the presence of a cointegration relationship between government policy measures and the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, results of PMG-ARDL show that economic support, stringency, and health and containment measures play a significant role in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study concluded that pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures have a substantial impact on mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Policy implications such as government financial support for poor families, stringency, and health and containment measures must be adopted during the pandemic to curb/reduce the spread of COVID-19. Furthermore, it is also recommended to provide vaccines free of charge to developing countries and a stimulus package to support health research to expand the capacity for rapid vaccine in this region.