Analyzing the Return on Investment Associated With Prognostics and Health Management of Electronic Products

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiri Feldman ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Product Usage ◽  
Cost Avoidance ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Business Cases ◽  
The Cost

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) provides an opportunity for lowering sustainment costs, improving maintenance decision-making and providing product usage feedback into the product design and validation process. The adoption of PHM approaches requires consideration and planning for integration into new and existing systems, operations, and processes. However, PHM must provide a significant advantage in order to add value for the maintenance process and commitments to implement and support PHM approaches cannot be made without the development of supporting business cases. The realization of PHM requires implementation at different levels of scale and complexity. The maturity, robustness, and applicability of the underlying predictive algorithms impact the overall efficacy of PHM within an enterprise. The utility of PHM to inform decision-makers within tight scheduling constraints and under different operational profiles likewise affects the cost avoidance that can be realized. This paper presents a case study conducted using a stochastic discrete event simulation model to determine the benefits and potential cost avoidance offered by electronics PHM (e-PHM). The case study of a multifunctional display in a Boing 737 compared the life cycle costs of a system employing unscheduled maintenance approaches to the same system using a precursor to failure PHM approach.

Generating Labour Cost Budget for a Construction-Oriented Fabrication Facility: Simulation-based Resource Scheduling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila Zahedi ◽  
Ming Lu
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Event ◽  
Highway Bridges ◽  
Labour Cost ◽  
Steel Girder ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Productive Time

A novel labour-hour budgeting methodology is proposed by integrating productivity concepts in project scheduling and budgeting to enhance the accuracy of labour cost budgeting for planning labour-intensive projects. The proposed methodology applies discrete event simulation approach to represent crew formation, labour resource utilization and labour resource flowing between consecutive activities, which allows for quantitatively characterizing the impact of labour semi-productive time on labour cost budgeting as a time-dependent variable. Simulation-based assessment of variations in crew sizes and labour allocations is conducive to reducing semi-productive time and thus enhancing the cost performance of the whole project. The proposed methodology is then applied in a real-world case study for planning steel girder fabrication projects in construction of highway bridges. Not limited to budgeting for labour resources in construction-oriented fabrication facility, the research contributions are also significant to other construction planning settings where limited resources are shared and utilized among different activities.

Improving Casthouse Throughput Using Discrete-Event Modelling

2011 ◽  
Vol 693 ◽  
pp. 3-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Gunn ◽  
Yakov Frayman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Casting Machine ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Modelling System ◽  
Key Parameter

The scheduling of metal to different casters in a casthouse is a complicated problem, attempting to find the balance between pot-line, crucible carrier, furnace and casting machine capacity. In this paper, a description will be given of a casthouse modelling system designed to test different scenarios for casthouse design and operation. Using discrete-event simulation, the casthouse model incorporates variable arrival times of metal carriers, crucible movements, caster operation and furnace conditions. Each part of the system is individually modelled and synchronised using a series of signals or semaphores. In addition, an easy to operate user interface allows for the modification of key parameters, and analysis of model output. Results from the model will be presented for a case study, which highlights the effect different parameters have on overall casthouse performance. The case study uses past production data from a casthouse to validate the model outputs, with the aim to perform a sensitivity analysis on the overall system. Along with metal preparation times and caster strip-down/setup, the temperature evolution within the furnaces is one key parameter in determining casthouse performance.

Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Software System Fault and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rubyet Islam ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Test Beds

Abstract Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will no longer perform as intended. The prediction is often articulated as a Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL is an important decision-making tool for contingency mitigation, i.e., the prediction of an RUL (and its associated confidence) enables decisions to be made about how and when to maintain the system. PHM is generally applied to hardware systems in the electronics and non-electronics application domains. The application of PHM (and RUL) concepts has not been explored for application to software. Today, software (SW) health management is confined to diagnostic assessments that identify problems, whereas prognostic assessment potentially indicates when in the future a problem will become detrimental to the operation of the system. Relevant areas such as SW defect prediction, SW reliability prediction, predictive maintenance of SW, SW degradation, and SW performance prediction, exist, but all represent static models, built upon historical data — none of which can calculate an RUL. This paper addresses the application of PHM concepts to software systems for fault predictions and RUL estimation. Specifically, we wish to address how PHM can be used to make decisions for SW systems such as version update, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance scheduling and abandonment. This paper presents a method to prognostically and continuously predict the RUL of a SW system based on usage parameters (e.g., numbers and categories of releases) and multiple performance parameters (e.g., response time). The model is validated based on actual data (on performance parameters), generated by the test beds versus predicted data, generated by a predictive model. Statistical validation (regression validation) has been carried out as well. The test beds replicate and validate faults, collected from a real application, in a controlled and standard test (staging) environment. A case study based on publicly available data on faults and enhancement requests for the open-source Bugzilla application is presented. This case study demonstrates that PHM concepts can be applied to SW systems and RUL can be calculated to make decisions on software version update or upgrade, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance schedule and total abandonment.

Evaluation of the dosing strategies of biologic agents and the theoretical impact of dose rounding

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Savannah Lindsey ◽  
Laura Beth Parsons ◽  
Lindsay Rosenbeck Figg ◽  
Jill Rhodes
Keyword(s):  
Monoclonal Antibody ◽  
Monoclonal Antibodies ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Academic Medical Center ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Retrospective Chart Review ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Cost Avoidance ◽  
The Cost

Introduction Monoclonal antibodies possess unique pharmacokinetic properties that permit flexible dosing. Increased use and high costs of these medications have led to the development of cost-containing strategies. This study aims to quantify the cost savings and clinical impact associated with dose rounding monoclonal antibodies to the nearest vial size. Methods This study was a single-arm, retrospective chart review assessing all monoclonal antibody doses dispensed at an outpatient community infusion center associated with an academic medical center between August 2014 and August 2015. All monoclonal antibody doses were reviewed to determine the cost of drug wasted using two methods. The waste-cost analysis described the amount of drug disposed of due to the use of partial vials. The theoretical dose savings described potential cost avoidance based on rounding the ordered dose to the nearest vial size. The theoretical rounded dose was compared to the actual ordered dose to explore clinical implications. Results A total of 436 doses were included. Of these, 237 were not rounded to the nearest vial size and included in the analysis. The cost of waste associated with these doses was $108,013.64 using actual wholesale price. The potential cost avoidance associated with the theoretical dose calculation was $83,595.53. Rounding these doses to the nearest vial size resulted in a median 6.7% (range, 1.4–20%) deviation from ordered dose. Conclusions Rounding monoclonal antibodies to the nearest vial size could lead to significant cost and waste savings with minimal deviation from the actual ordered dose.

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