An Approach to Modeling Customer Preference Uncertainty by Applying Bootstrap to Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis Data

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swithin S. Razu ◽  
Shun Takai
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Market Share ◽  
New Product ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Product Development Process ◽  
Product Concept ◽  
Customer Preference ◽  
Market Shares

Analysis of customer preferences is among the most important tasks in a new product development. How customers come to appreciate and decide to purchase a new product affects the products market share and therefore its success or failure. Unfortunately, when designers select a product concept early in the product development process, customer preference response to the new product is unknown. Conjoint analysis is a statistical marketing tool that has been used to estimate market shares of new product concepts by analyzing data on the product ratings, rankings or concept choices of customers. This paper proposes an alternative to traditional conjoint analysis methods that provide point estimates of market shares. It proposes two approaches to model market share uncertainty; bootstrap and binomial inference applied to choice-based conjoint analysis data. The proposed approaches are demonstrated and compared using an illustrative example.

Reliability and Accuracy of Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods for Demand Distribution Modeling

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swithin S. Razu ◽  
Shun Takai
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Product Development ◽  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
New Product ◽  
Product Development Process ◽  
Choice Data ◽  
Product Concept ◽  
Demand Distribution

Estimation of demand is one of the most important tasks in new product development. How customers come to appreciate and decide to purchase a new product impacts demand and hence profit of the product. Unfortunately, when designers select a new product concept early in the product development process, the future demand of the new product is not known. Conjoint analysis is a statistical method that has been used to estimate a demand of a new product concept from customer survey data. Although conjoint analysis has been increasingly incorporated in design engineering as a method to estimate a demand of a new product design, it has not been fully employed to model demand uncertainty. This paper demonstrates and compares two approaches that use conjoint analysis data to model demand uncertainty: bootstrap of respondent choice data and Monte Carlo simulation of utility estimation errors. Reliability of demand distribution and accuracy of demand estimation are compared for the two approaches in an illustrative example.

Advantages of Time-Based New Product Development in a Fast-Cycle Industry

1997 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srikant Datar ◽  
C. Clark Jordan ◽  
Sunder Kekre ◽  
Surendra Rajiv ◽  
Kannan Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Development Process ◽  
New Product ◽  
Product Development Process ◽  
Concept Generation ◽  
Volume Production ◽  
The Impact

The authors study the impact of time-based product development on sustainable market share gains in a high-technology computer component industry. Three dominant firms, with international new product development and manufacturing facilities, have introduced more than 200 new products into this fast-cycle market in a five-year period. The authors systematically examine the leads and lags at critical stages of the product development process: concept generation, prototype completion, and volume production. Their main finding is that lead-time advantage affects market share positively, albeit differentially, at each stage. The benefit of lead-time gain is greatest at the volume production stage, followed by the concept generation stage. The authors also develop a new notion of lead-time threshold—a time period in which if a competitor catches up, no market share gain is achieved by the firm that introduces the product first. They endogenously estimate the magnitude of the threshold for each stage of the product development process, observing that a significant threshold is present at both the concept generation and volume production stages. Finally, the structure of the development process, which differs across the firms in the market, affords significant differential ability to catch up with competitors.

Organizing for Effective New Product Development: The Moderating Role of Product Innovativeness

1995 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric M. Olson ◽  
Orville C. Walker ◽  
Robert W. Ruekert
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
New Product ◽  
Coordination Mechanism ◽  
Product Development Process ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Product Concept

Marketing and sales personnel are frequently called on to work with—and sometimes to lead—specialists from other functional areas in the development of new products and services. Such cross-functional interactions can be structured and coordinated in a variety of ways, from bureaucratic approaches to more decentralized participatory mechanisms. Recently, cross-functional team structures have received a great deal of positive press. However, this paper questions whether teams are a universal panacea for shortening development times and improving success rates across all types of projects. It presents a contingency model based on resource dependency theory, which suggests that more participative structures are likely to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of the development process when the product being developed is truly new and innovative. However, the model also predicts that more bureaucratic structures may produce better outcomes on less innovative projects, such as those involving line extensions or product improvements. An empirical test involving 45 projects from 12 firms in widely varying industries substantially supports the model's predictions. The findings indicate that the better the fit between the newness of the product concept and the participativeness of the coordination mechanism used the better the outcomes of the development process in terms of (1) objective measures of product and team performance, (2) the attitudes of team members toward the process, and (3) the efficiency and timeliness of the new product development process.

UNDERSTANDING LINEAR AND NONLINEAR ASPECTS OF PRODUCT CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ORGANISATIONAL INTERPRETATION PERSPECTIVE

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 1650027
Author(s):  
MANABU MIYAO
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
New Product ◽  
Linear Process ◽  
Concept Development ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Nonlinear Characteristics ◽  
Product Concept ◽  
And Function ◽  
Interpretation Systems

The product concept is crucial in new product development (NPD) because it represents an NPD project’s goal. In this context, most prior studies have regarded product concept development as a linear process but some recent studies have revealed that it also has nonlinear characteristics. The objective of this paper is to explore why this inconsistency has arisen and to develop a model and theory that illustrate both aspects of product concept development. To achieve this, we adopt the perspective of organisational interpretation systems (Daft and Weick (1984). Toward a model of organisations as interpretation systems. Academy of Management Review, 9(2), 289–295) and explore eight product development cases. Consequently, we develop a three-stage model and find that the linearity or nonlinearity of product concept development is determined by each NPD team’s assumption about the environment. We also consider product innovativeness and function equivocality, and establish that these are related to the NPD teams’ assumptions about the environment.

Constructing New Product Development for the DC Cooling Fan Industry: ISO/TS16949 Procedures

2013 ◽  
Vol 470 ◽  
pp. 392-395
Author(s):  
Tzu Chuan Chou ◽  
Sheng Hsiung Wu ◽  
Ming Hung Shu
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
New Product ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Sales And Marketing ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cooling Fans ◽  
Customer Services

Applications of DC cooling fans in auto electronics cover a wide range of areas. Since they all need to meet the requirement of the clients in providing customized products, many product combinations have been developed. In the past, when DC cooling fans manufacturers have not implemented the requirements of TS16949 and the core tools, their developmental process could only meet the spirit of process-orientation suggested by ISO9001. There was an obvious deficiency in terms of the quality management tools during the development and manufacturing processes, as well as the development information that should be produced; therefore, they were unable to meet the requirements of TS16949. This study constructs a new product development (NPD) procedure through the application of the five core tools that meets the requirements of TS16949, and satisfies the characteristics of the DC cooling fans industry. With this process, the Taiwanese DC cooling fans industry can effectively control the entire production process, from sales and marketing, R&D, manufacturing, to customer services. Moreover, the manufacturers could not only elevate their ability to self-manage, but also meet the requirements and gain market shares in the international automobile supply chain.

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