Probabilistic Assessment of a 70-Year Old Pipeline Subject to Seismic Deformation

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Warke ◽  
James D. Hart ◽  
Ben H. Thacker
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Weld Joints ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Flaw Sizing ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Seismic Deformation ◽  
State Functions

This paper presents an assessment case study on several segments of buried natural gas pipeline constructed in 1936 with ‘bell-bell-chill ring’ (BBCR) style girth weld joints, and currently operating in a seismically active region of North America. Seismic vulnerability was evaluated in terms of girth weld fracture and plastic collapse probabilities for specified hazards of varying severity and likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations performed in NESSUS® provided failure probability estimates from distributed inputs based on PIPLIN deformation analyses, nondestructive and destructive flaw sizing, residual stress measurements, weld metal tensile and CTOD tests, and limit state functions based on published stress intensity and collapse solutions.

scholarly journals Fragility curves for Italian URM buildings based on a hybrid method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sandoli ◽  
G. P. Lignola ◽  
B. Calderoni ◽  
A. Prota
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Masonry Building ◽  
Masonry Buildings ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Damage Scenario

AbstractA hybrid seismic fragility model for territorial-scale seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is developed and presented in this paper. The method combines expert-judgment and mechanical approaches to derive typological fragility curves for Italian residential masonry building stock. The first classifies Italian masonry buildings in five different typological classes as function of age of construction, structural typology, and seismic behaviour and damaging of buildings observed following the most severe earthquakes occurred in Italy. The second, based on numerical analyses results conducted on building prototypes, provides all the parameters necessary for developing fragility functions. Peak-Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Ultimate Limit State attainable by each building’s class has been chosen as an Intensity Measure to represent fragility curves: three types of curve have been developed, each referred to mean, maximum and minimum value of PGAs defined for each building class. To represent the expected damage scenario for increasing earthquake intensities, a correlation between PGAs and Mercalli-Cancani-Sieber macroseismic intensity scale has been used and the corresponding fragility curves developed. Results show that the proposed building’s classes are representative of the Italian masonry building stock and that fragility curves are effective for predicting both seismic vulnerability and expected damage scenarios for seismic-prone areas. Finally, the fragility curves have been compared with empirical curves obtained through a macroseismic approach on Italian masonry buildings available in literature, underlining the differences between the methods.

scholarly journals Probabilistic assessment of API casing strength in serviceability limit state

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2089-2104 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. P. Gouveia ◽  
E. T. Lima Junior ◽  
J. P. L. Santos ◽  
W. W. M. Lira ◽  
J. L. R. Anjos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Serviceability Limit State ◽  
Casing Strength

A New Methodology for the Reliability Based Particle Swarm Optimization with Simulated Annealing

2011 ◽  
Vol 274 ◽  
pp. 101-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norelislam Elhami ◽  
Rachid Ellaia ◽  
Mhamed Itmi
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Simulated Annealing ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Geometrical Parameters ◽  
Rectangular Plates ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
State Functions

This paper presents a new methodology for the Reliability Based Particle Swarm Optimization with Simulated Annealing. The reliability analysis procedure couple traditional and modified first and second order reliability methods, in rectangular plates modelled by an Assumed Modes approach. Both reliability methods are applicable to the implicit limit state functions through numerical models, like those based on the Assumed Mode Method. For traditional reliability approaches, the algorithms FORM and SORM use a Newton-Raphson procedure for estimate design point. In modified approaches, the algorithms are based on heuristic optimization methods such as Particle Swarm Optimization and Simulated Annealing Optimization. Numerical applications in static, dynamic and stability problems are used to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of proposed methodology. These examples consist in a rectangular plates subjected to in-plane external loads, material and geometrical parameters which are considered as random variables. The results show that the predicted reliability levels are accurate to evaluate simultaneously various implicit limit state functions with respect to static, dynamic and stability criterions.

GICS IN THE MAIN TRANSMISSION LINE “NORTHERN TRANSIT” IN RUSSIA AND IN THE MÄNTSÄLÄ FINLAND PIPELINE: A CASE STUDY

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 20-23
Author(s):  
I.V. Despirak ◽  
◽  
P.V. Setsko ◽  
Ya.A. Sakharov ◽  
V.N. Selivanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Auroral Zone ◽  
Magnetic Data ◽  
Geomagnetically Induced Currents ◽  
Camera System ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Using Data

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), arising both on power lines and on pipelines, may have strong negative impact on the technological networks up to accidents ("blackouts"). Magnetospheric disturbances are one of the factors in the appearance of GICs, however there is no unambiguous relationship between substorm and presence of currents. In this paper, we consider two intense cases of GIC (15March 2012 and 17 March 2013), registered on two different technological networks: 1) on the "Nothern Transit" power line (Vykhodnoy, Revda and Kondopoga stations) located in the auroral zone, 2) on the Finnish natural gas pipeline near Mäntsälä located in the subauroral zone. Both GIC cases are compared with substorm development in the auroral zone, using data from IMAGE magnetometers network and MAIN camera system in Apatity. We found a good correlation between the GIC appearance and variations of geomagnetic indexes: IL – index, which characterized of westward electrojet intensity on the IMAGE meridian and Wp - index, which describes the wave activity of the substorm. Besides, it was shown also a good correlation between GICs and the thin spatio-temporal structure of the substorm development (the appearance and the propagation to the pole of substorm activations), which is appeared both in the magnetic data and in the all sky camera images.

Seismic Vulnerability of Individual Housing: Case Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 127-135
Author(s):  
Mashrap Akhmedov ◽  
Rustam Abirov
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Individual Housing
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