Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 348 (6242) ◽  
pp. 1469-1472 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. R. Karl ◽  
A. Arguez ◽  
B. Huang ◽  
J. H. Lawrimore ◽  
J. R. McMahon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Global Surface

What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998–2013?

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka
Keyword(s):  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Global Surface

scholarly journals The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Warming Hiatus

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcings of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870–2017 is explained by this model, in particular, all features of the 1998–2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870–1915 and 1940–1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO with a small contribution from solar activity.

scholarly journals Attribution of global surface warming without dynamical models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Dáithí A. Stone ◽  
M. R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Surface
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