scholarly journals The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Warming Hiatus

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcings of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870–2017 is explained by this model, in particular, all features of the 1998–2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870–1915 and 1940–1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO with a small contribution from solar activity.

scholarly journals The Life and Death of the Hiatus Consistently Explained

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Long Memory ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

scholarly journals Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1085-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Landrum ◽  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Eugene R. Wahl ◽  
Andrew Conley ◽  
Peter J. Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Asian Monsoon Region ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract An overview of a simulation referred to as the “Last Millennium” (LM) simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), is presented. The CCSM4 LM simulation reproduces many large-scale climate patterns suggested by historical and proxy-data records, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface temperatures cooling to the early 1800s Common Era by ~0.5°C (NH) and ~0.3°C (SH), followed by warming to the present. High latitudes of both hemispheres show polar amplification of the cooling from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) associated with sea ice increases. The LM simulation does not reproduce La Niña–like cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the MCA relative to the LIA, as has been suggested by proxy reconstructions. Still, dry medieval conditions over the southwestern and central United States are simulated in agreement with proxy indicators for these regions. Strong global cooling is associated with large volcanic eruptions, with indications of multidecadal colder climate in response to larger eruptions. The CCSM4’s response to large volcanic eruptions captures some reconstructed patterns of temperature changes over Europe and North America, but not those of precipitation in the Asian monsoon region. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has higher variance at centennial periods in the LM simulation compared to the 1850 nontransient run, suggesting a long-term Atlantic Ocean response to natural forcings. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability modes show little or no change. CCSM4 does not simulate a persistent positive NAO or a prolonged period of negative PDO during the MCA, as suggested by some proxy reconstructions.

scholarly journals Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 4309-4327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
Jonathan T. Overpeck ◽  
John Fasullo ◽  
Sloan Coats ◽  
Luke Parsons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Ocean Variability ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.

Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

scholarly journals Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Climate Networks

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.

Planktic Foraminifera changes in the western Mediterranean Anthropocene

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Pallacks ◽  
Patrizia Ziveri ◽  
Belen Martrat ◽  
Graham P. Mortyn ◽  
Michael Grelaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Planktic Foraminifera ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Globigerina Bulloides ◽  
Western Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Surface Productivity ◽  
Common Era

<p>The increase in anthropogenic induced warming over the last two centuries is impacting marine environments. Marine planktic calcifying organisms interact sensitively to changes in sea surface temperatures (SST), and the food web structure. Here, we study two high resolution multicore records from two western Mediterranean Sea regions (Alboran and Balearic basins), areas highly affected by both natural climate change and anthropogenic warming. Cores cover the time interval from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to present. Reconstructed SSTs are in good agreement with other results, tracing temperature changes through the Common Era, and show a clear 20<sup>th</sup> century warming signal. Both cores show opposite abundance fluctuations of planktic foraminiferal species (Globigerina bulloides, Globorotalia inflata and Globorotalia truncatulinoides) a common group of marine calcifying zooplankton. The abundance ratios between these species show the switch between winter / spring surface productivity and deep winter mixing in the Balearic basin. In the Alboran Sea, Globigerina bulloides and Globorotalia inflata instead respond to local upwelling dynamics. In the pre-industrial era, changes in planktic foraminiferal productivity and species composition can be explained mainly by the natural variability of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and, to lesser extent, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In the industrial era, starting from about 1800 Common Era (CE), this variability is affected by anthropogenic surface warming, leading to enhanced vertical stratification of the upper water column, and resulting in a decrease of surface productivity at both sites. We found that natural planktic foraminiferal population dynamics in the western Mediterranean is already altered by enhanced anthropogenic impact in the industrial era, suggesting that in this region natural cycles and influences are being overprinted by human influences.</p>

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