Global warming pattern formation: the role of ocean heat uptake

This study investigates the formation mechanism of ocean surface warming pattern in response to a doubling CO2 with a focus on the role of ocean heat uptake (or ocean surface heat flux change, ΔQnet). We demonstrate that the transient patterns of surface warming and rainfall change simulated by the dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupled model (DOM) can be reproduced by the equilibrium solutions of the slab ocean-atmosphere coupled model (SOM) simulations when forced with the DOM ΔQnet distribution. The SOM is then used as a diagnostic, inverse modeling tool to decompose the CO2-induced thermodynamic warming effect and the ΔQnet (ocean heat uptake)-induced cooling effect. As ΔQnet is largely positive (i.e., downward into the ocean) in the subpolar oceans and weakly negative at the equator, its cooling effect is strongly polar amplified and opposes the CO2 warming, reducing the net warming response especially over Antarctica. For the same reason, the ΔQnet-induced cooling effect contributes significantly to the equatorially enhanced warming in all three ocean basins, while the CO2 warming effect plays a role in the equatorial warming of the eastern Pacific. The spatially varying component of ΔQnet, although globally averaged to zero, can effectively rectify and lead to decreased global mean surface temperature of a comparable magnitude as the global mean ΔQnet effect under transient climate change. Our study highlights the importance of air-sea interaction in the surface warming pattern formation and the key role of ocean heat uptake pattern.

Underlying drivers of decade-long fluctuation in the global mean sea-level rise

Natural climate variability can mask the background trend of global mean sea-level (GMSL) caused by global warming. Recent advances in satellite measurements and ocean heat-content estimates have enabled the monitoring of GMSL budget components and provide insights into ocean effects on the Earth’s energy imbalance and hydrology. We observed a decadal fluctuation in GMSL rise, which coincides with an increasing trend in the 2010s after the warming “hiatus” during the 2000s, and demonstrated that the rate of sea-level rise can be attributed to climate-related decadal fluctuations in ocean heat storage and hydrology. Since ~2011, the decadal climate variability has resulted in additional ocean mass gain (271±89 Gt yr-1) from glacier-free land water storage and increased ocean heat uptake (0.28±0.17 W m-2), increasing the GMSL rise rate by 1.4±0.4 mm yr-1. The suggested estimates of sea-level and Earth’s energy budgets highlight the importance of natural variability in understanding the impacts of the ongoing sea-level rise.

Origins of a relatively tight lower bound on anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing from Bayesian analysis of historical observations

A variety of empirical estimates have been published for the lower bounds on aerosol radiative forcing, clustered around -1.0 Wm−2 or -2.0 Wm−2. The reasons for obtaining such different constraints are not well understood. In this study, we explore bounds on aerosol radiative forcing using a Bayesian model of aerosol forcing and Earth’s multi-timescale temperature response to radiative forcing. We first demonstrate the ability of a simple aerosol model to emulate aerosol radiative forcing simulated by ten general circulation models. A joint inference of climate sensitivity and effective aerosol forcing from historical surface temperatures is then made over 1850–2019. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of aerosol radiative forcing of -0.85 Wm−2 [5-95% credible interval -1.3 to -0.50 Wm−2] for 2010–2019 relative to 1750 and an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4°C [5-95% credible interval 1.8 to 6.1°C]. The wide range of climate sensitivity reflects difficulty in empirically constraining long-term responses using historical temperatures, as noted elsewhere. A relatively tight bound on aerosol forcing is nonetheless obtained from the structure of temperature and aerosol precursor emissions and, particularly, from the rapid growth in emissions between 1950–1980. Obtaining a fifth-percentile lower bound on aerosol forcing around -2.0 Wm−2 requires prescribing internal climate variance that is a factor of five larger than the CMIP6 mean and assuming large, correlated errors in global temperature observations. Ocean heat uptake observations may further constrain aerosol radiative forcing but require a better understanding of the relationship between time-variable radiative feedbacks and radiative forcing.

Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets

Future climate change projections, impacts, and mitigation targets are directly affected by how sensitive Earth's global mean surface temperature is to anthropogenic forcing, expressed via the climate sensitivity (S) and transient climate response (TCR). However, the S and TCR are poorly constrained, in part because historic observations and future climate projections consider the climate system under different response timescales with potentially different climate feedback strengths. Here, we evaluate S and TCR by using historic observations of surface warming, available since the mid-19th century, and ocean heat uptake, available since the mid-20th century, to constrain a model with independent climate feedback components acting over multiple response timescales. Adopting a Bayesian approach, our prior uses a constrained distribution for the instantaneous Planck feedback combined with wide-ranging uniform distributions of the strengths of the fast feedbacks (acting over several days) and multi-decadal feedbacks. We extract posterior distributions by applying likelihood functions derived from different combinations of observational datasets. The resulting TCR distributions when using two preferred combinations of historic datasets both find a TCR of 1.5 (1.3 to 1.8 at 5–95 % range) ∘C. We find the posterior probability distribution for S for our preferred dataset combination evolves from S of 2.0 (1.6 to 2.5) ∘C on a 20-year response timescale to S of 2.3 (1.4 to 6.4) ∘C on a 140-year response timescale, due to the impact of multi-decadal feedbacks. Our results demonstrate how multi-decadal feedbacks allow a significantly higher upper bound on S than historic observations are otherwise consistent with.

Global heat balance and heat uptake in potential temperature coordinates

The representation of ocean heat uptake in Simple Climate Models used for policy advice on climate change mitigation strategies is often based on variants of the one-dimensional Vertical Advection/Diffusion equation (VAD) for some averaged form of potential temperature. In such models, the effective advection and turbulent diffusion are usually tuned to emulate the behaviour of a given target climate model. However, because the statistical nature of such a “behavioural” calibration usually obscures the exact dependence of the effective diffusion and advection on the actual physical processes responsible for ocean heat uptake, it is difficult to understand its limitations and how to go about improving VADs. This paper proposes a physical calibration of the VAD that aims to provide explicit traceability of effective diffusion and advection to the processes responsible for ocean heat uptake. This construction relies on the coarse-graining of the full three-dimensional advection diffusion for potential temperature using potential temperature coordinates. The main advantage of this formulation is that the temporal evolution of the reference temperature profile is entirely due to the competition between effective diffusivity that is always positive definite, and the water mass transformation taking place at the surface, as in classical water mass analyses literature. These quantities are evaluated in numerical simulations of present day climate and global warming experiments. In this framework, the heat uptake in the global warming experiment is attributed to the increase of surface heat flux at low latitudes, its decrease at high latitudes and to the redistribution of heat toward cold temperatures made by diffusive flux.

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Earth System Model Energy and Water Cycles

Earth system models parameterize ocean surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum with empirical bulk flux algorithms, which introduce biases and uncertainties into simulations. We investigate the atmosphere and ocean model sensitivity to algorithm choice in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Flux differences between algorithms are larger in atmosphere simulations (where wind speeds can vary) than ocean simulations (where wind speeds are fixed by forcing data). Surface flux changes lead to global scale changes in the energy and water cycles, notably including ocean heat uptake and global mean precipitation rates. Compared to the control algorithm, both COARE and University of Arizona (UA) algorithms reduce global mean precipitation and top of atmosphere radiative biases. Further, UA may slightly reduce biases in ocean meridional heat transport. We speculate that changes seen here, especially in the ocean, could be even larger in coupled simulations.

On the Hyperbolicity of the Bulk Air–Sea Heat Flux Functions: Insights into the Efficiency of Air–Sea Moisture Disequilibrium for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Sea-to-air heat fluxes are the energy source for tropical cyclone (TC) development and maintenance. In the bulk aerodynamic formulas, these fluxes are a function of surface wind speed U10 and air–sea temperature and moisture disequilibrium (ΔT and Δq, respectively). Although many studies have explained TC intensification through the mutual dependence between increasing U10 and increasing sea-to-air heat fluxes, recent studies have found that TC intensification can occur through deep convective vortex structures that obtain their local buoyancy from sea-to-air moisture fluxes, even under conditions of relatively low wind. Herein, a new perspective on the bulk aerodynamic formulas is introduced to evaluate the relative contribution of wind-driven (U10) and thermodynamically driven (ΔT and Δq) ocean heat uptake. Previously unnoticed salient properties of these formulas, reported here, are as follows: 1) these functions are hyperbolic and 2) increasing Δq is an efficient mechanism for enhancing the fluxes. This new perspective was used to investigate surface heat fluxes in six TCs during phases of steady-state intensity (SS), slow intensification (SI), and rapid intensification (RI). A capping of wind-driven heat uptake was found during periods of SS, SI, and RI. Compensation by larger values of Δq > 5 g kg−1 at moderate values of U10 led to intense inner-core moisture fluxes of greater than 600 W m−2 during RI. Peak values in Δq preferentially occurred over oceanic regimes with higher sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Thus, increasing SST and Δq is a very effective way to increase surface heat fluxes—this can easily be achieved as a TC moves over deeper warm oceanic regimes.