Epidemiological and Serological Investigation into the Role of Gestational Maternal Influenza Virus Infection and Autism Spectrum Disorders

ABSTRACT The causes of most cases of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are unknown. Some epidemiological studies suggest that maternal gestational influenza virus infection may increase the risk of ASD in offspring. Here, we describe an analysis of a large birth cohort with results based on questionnaires that prospectively addressed subjective reports of influenza-like illness and serological assays for objective determination of influenza virus infection. Although serologic evidence of gestational influenza virus infection alone was not associated with risk, positive serology and symptoms of influenza-like illness cannot yet be definitely ruled out as a risk factor. The literature concerning gestational maternal influenza virus infection and risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is inconclusive. To address this uncertainty, we obtained information from questionnaires and samples from the Autism Birth Cohort, a prospective birth cohort comprising mothers, fathers, and offspring recruited in Norway in 1999 to 2008. Through questionnaires, referrals, and linkages to the Norwegian National Patient Registry, we identified 338 mothers of children with ASD and 348 frequency-matched controls for whom plasma samples that had been collected midpregnancy and after delivery were available for influenza virus serology via luciferase immunoprecipitation and hemagglutinin inhibition assays for influenza virus strains circulating during the study period. Assay data were combined to define serological status and integrated with self-reports of influenza-like illness to estimate ASD risk. Neither influenza A nor influenza B virus infection was associated with increased ASD risk. Integration of reports of symptoms of influenza-like illness with serology revealed an increase in risk for seropositive women with symptoms, but this increase did not achieve statistical significance (a level of P < 0.05) in the comparison with seronegative women without symptoms (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 3.89; P = 0.068). Although chance may explain our findings, the magnitude of the potential association may be of biological importance, and dismissing our findings could result in failure to detect a bona fide association (type II error). If the association is true, we posit that the risk is due to activation of the maternal immune system following infection rather than direct fetal infection. Data on levels of cytokines or other mediators of inflammation would allow us to test the validity of this hypothesis. IMPORTANCE The causes of most cases of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are unknown. Some epidemiological studies suggest that maternal gestational influenza virus infection may increase the risk of ASD in offspring. Here, we describe an analysis of a large birth cohort with results based on questionnaires that prospectively addressed subjective reports of influenza-like illness and serological assays for objective determination of influenza virus infection. Although serologic evidence of gestational influenza virus infection alone was not associated with risk, positive serology and symptoms of influenza-like illness cannot yet be definitely ruled out as a risk factor.