Probabilistic observational method for estimating wall displacements in excavations
In this study, a novel method for updating the probability distribution of the maximum wall displacement at the ith excavation stage ([Formula: see text]) based on the measurements at earlier stages is proposed. The main novelty of the proposed method is in the updating procedure, which incorporates the correlation among the estimation errors at various stages. This “stage correlation” is evident from a database of wall displacement data from 22 case histories. By incorporating the stage correlation, it is shown that the uncertainty in [Formula: see text] can be effectively reduced through a Bayesian analysis. Furthermore, the calculation steps for such updating can be easily implemented by practical engineers because these calculation steps involve only algebraic computations and chart checking. Sophisticated analyses, such as solving an optimization problem (required by the maximum likelihood method) and probabilistic analyses are not necessary because all of the Bayesian analysis results are summarized in the charts.