Warm, dry conditions inhibit aspen growth, but tree growth and size predict mortality risk in the southwestern United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 1206-1214
Author(s):  
Kathryn B. Ireland ◽  
Margaret M. Moore ◽  
Peter Z. Fulé ◽  
Larissa L. Yocom ◽  
Thomas J. Zegler

Widespread, rapid aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) mortality since the beginning of the 21st century, sometimes called sudden aspen decline (SAD), has been documented in many locations across North America, but it has been particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. We investigated the relationship among aspen growth, mortality, and climate across three forest types in northern Arizona using cross-dated tree-ring samples from 126 live and 132 dead aspens. Aspen growth was negatively correlated with warm temperatures and positively associated with higher precipitation. Using survival analysis techniques to investigate the links between aspen mortality, tree traits, and climatic conditions, we found that tree traits played a larger role in mortality risk than climate factors. Trees with larger diameters, older trees, and trees with faster growth rates over the past 50 years had a reduced risk of mortality. Management actions aimed at maintaining the most vigorous, fastest growing aspen in the region could help mitigate the impacts of a warmer, drier future.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (29_suppl) ◽  
pp. 86-86
Author(s):  
K Robin Yabroff ◽  
Xuesong Han ◽  
Weishan Song ◽  
Jingxuan Zhao ◽  
Ahmedin Jemal ◽  
...  

86 Background: Cancer survivors frequently experience medical financial hardship in the United States. Little is known, however, about its long-term health consequences. In this study, we examine the associations of cancer history, medical financial hardship and mortality in a large nationally representative sample. Methods: We identified cohorts of adults aged 18-64 years (n = 415,114) and 65-79 years (n = 73,571) from the 1997-2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the NHIS Linked Mortality Files with vital status through December 31, 2015. Medical financial hardship was measured as problems affording care or delaying or forgoing any medical care due to cost in the past 12 months using survey questions consistently available in all NHIS years. Risk of mortality estimated with weighted Cox’s proportional hazards models with age as the time scale, controlling for the effects of sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, marital status, comorbid conditions, region, and survey year. Health insurance coverage was added separately to multivariable models. All estimates accounted for the complex survey design. Results: Among adults aged 18-64 years, 29.6% with and 21.3% without a cancer history reported financial hardship Among adults aged 65-79 years with and without a cancer history, the same percentage reported financial hardship: 11.1%. Among adults aged 18-64 years, cancer survivors with financial hardship had the highest adjusted mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [95CI]: 1.92-2.37); followed by cancer survivors without medical financial hardship (HR: 1.93, 95CI: 1.81-2.06); and adults without a cancer history with medical financial hardship (HR: 1.36; 95CI: 1.31-1.41) compared with adults with neither a cancer history nor financial hardship. Similar pattern was observed among adults aged 65-79 years: cancer survivors with (HR: 1.62, 95CI: 1.45-1.82) and without (HR: 1.34, 95CI: 1.28-1.24) medical financial hardship and adults without a cancer history with financial hardship (HR: 1.17, 95CI: 1.10-1.24) had elevated mortality risk. Further adjustment for health insurance coverage reduced the magnitude of association of financial hardship and mortality among adults 18-64 years, but further adjustment for insurance had little effect on mortality risk among those aged 65-79 years. Conclusions: Medical financial hardship was associated with increased risk of mortality among adults with and without a cancer history, highlighting the need for efforts to mitigate financial hardship in the United States.


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