Is it risky to be a father? Survival assessment depending on sex and parental status in the water bug Abedus breviceps using multistate modelling

We carried out a capture–recapture multistate modelling approach to estimate survival and recapture probabilities and transition rates between parental and nonparental status in an adult wild population of the water bug Abedus breviceps Stål, 1862 (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae). The global model included the following parameters: sex, male parental status (brooding or not), and transience (individual’s permanent movement from the site after first capture). Models were selected by means of the information-theory paradigm. The best supported model shows no difference in survival between males and females regardless of male parental status. Thus, the frequently assumed cost of parental care in terms of survival is not supported by our data. Furthermore, during the study, male expected adult life span in the wild was lower than the time needed to brood a batch of eggs from oviposition to hatching. We discuss potential consequences of such a short male expected adult life span in terms of parental behaviour decision rules related to fitness maximization.