BP neural network for real-time load forecasting analysis and application of power system

Author(s):  
Z.T. Guo ◽  
H. Song ◽  
P. G. Wen ◽  
J. Wang
2014 ◽  
Vol 521 ◽  
pp. 303-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Mei Zhong ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Qi Fang Chen ◽  
Nian Liu

The short-term load of Power System is uncertain and the daily-load signal spectrum is continuous. The approach of Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) is proposed by combing the wavelet transform (WT) and neural network. By the WT, the time-based short-term load sequence can be decomposed into different scales sequences, which is used to training the BP neural network. The short-term load is forecasted by the trained BP neural network. Select the load of a random day in Lianyungang to study, according to the numerical simulation results, the method proves to achieve good performances.


Power system load is a stochastic and non-stationary process. Due to the influence of various factors, some bad data may exist in the load observation value. These data are mixed into the normal load data to participate in the training of neural network, which seriously affects the accuracy of load forecasting. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, improving the precision of load forecasting is an important means to ensure the scientific decision-making of power system optimization. In order to improve the precision of short term load forecasting in power system, a short-term load forecasting model based on genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize BP neural network. Firstly, using genetic algorithm to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network to improve the prediction accuracy of BP neural network; Through the comparison and analysis before and after the model optimization, the experimental results with smaller prediction error were obtained. The simulation results show that the short-term load forecasting model established by this method has faster convergence rate and higher prediction precision.


Author(s):  
Devesh Shukla ◽  
Siddhi Jaiswal ◽  
Vijay P. Babu ◽  
S.P. Singh

2013 ◽  
Vol 483 ◽  
pp. 630-634
Author(s):  
Shu Chuan Gan ◽  
Ling Tang ◽  
Li Cao ◽  
Ying Gao Yue

An algorithm of artificial colony algorithm to optimize the BP neural network algorithm was presented and used to analyze the harmonics of power system. The artificial bee colony algorithm global searching ability, convergence speed for the BP neural network algorithm for harmonic analysis is easy to fall into local optimal solution of the disadvantages, and the initial weights of the artificial bee colony algorithm also greatly enhance whole algorithm model generalization capability. This algorithm using MATLAB for Artificial bee colony algorithm and BP neural network algorithm simulation training toolbox found using artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize BP neural network algorithm converges faster results with greater accuracy, with better harmonic analysis results.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Hasmat Malik ◽  
Majed A. Alotaibi ◽  
Abdulaziz Almutairi

The electric load forecasting (ELF) is a key area of the modern power system (MPS) applications and also for the virtual power plant (VPP) analysis. The ELF is most prominent for the distinct applications of MPS and VPP such as real-time analysis of energy storage system, distributed energy resources, demand side management and electric vehicles etc. To manage the real-time challenges and map the stable power demand, in different time steps, the ELF is evaluated in yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly, etc. basis. In this study, an intelligent load predictor which is able to forecast the electric load for next month or day or hour is proposed. The proposed approach is a hybrid model combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and neural network (NN) for multi-step ahead load forecasting. The model performance is demonstrated by suing historical dataset collected form GEFCom2012 and GEFCom2014. For the demonstration of the performance, three case studies are analyzed into two categories. The demonstrated results represents the higher acceptability of the proposed approach with respect to the standard value of MAPE (mean absolute percent error).


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document