INTERBANK CREDIT RISK MODELING WITH SELF-EXCITING JUMP PROCESSES

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (06) ◽  
pp. 2050039
Author(s):  
CHARLES GUY NJIKE LEUNGA ◽  
DONATIEN HAINAUT
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Arrival Rate ◽  
Jump Processes ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Rate Theory ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Swap Rates

The credit crunch of 2007 caused major changes in the market of interbank rates making the existing interest rate theory inconsistent. This paper puts forward one way to reconcile practice and theory by modifying the arbitrage-free condition. In this framework, the forward Libor rate is no longer considered as a risk-free rate and the credit and liquidity risks within the interbank market partly drive its dynamics. In a similar manner to the multiple-curve approach, we model the evolution of default-free rates, assimilated to overnight interest swap rates, and the default times of an interbank market segment determined by its tenor. For each segment, we use the reduced form approach to model the arrival rate of defaults with a self-exciting jump-diffusion process. Then, we deduce the dynamics of the spot forward Libor rates and provide closed-form approximation pricing formulae for options on forward Libor rates and swap rates. Even in a context of negative interest rates and compared to other forms of intensity processes such as a CIR, the self-excitation property allows a better understanding of the spread OIS-IRS and provides information about the interbank credit risk. Furthermore, our framework enables to parse the impact of the interbank credit risk on forward Libor as well as on interest rates derivatives like caps, floors, and swaptions.

AN EXTENSION OF THE BRODY–HUGHSTON–MACRINA APPROACH TO MODELING OF DEFAULTABLE BONDS

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 557-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAREK RUTKOWSKI ◽  
NANNAN YU
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Explicit Expression ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Derivative Securities ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
European Option ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Defaultable Bond

The innovative information-based framework for credit risk modeling, proposed recently by Brody, Hughston, and Macrina, is extended to a more general and practically important setup of random interest rates. We first introduce the market model, and we derive an explicit expression for defaultable bond price. Next, the dynamics of the information process and dynamics of defaultable bond are found for both deterministic and random interest rates. Finally, the valuation and hedging of derivative securities are briefly examined. In particular, the valuation formula for a European option on a defaultable bond is established.

scholarly journals Is the Jump-Diffusion Model a Good Solution for Credit Risk Modeling? The Case of Convertible Bonds

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Jump Diffusion ◽  
Convertible Bonds ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Jump Diffusion Model ◽  
Credit Risk Modeling ◽  
Arbitrage Strategy

This paper argues that the reduced-form jump diffusion model may not be appropriate for credit risk modeling. To correctly value hybrid defaultable financial instruments, e.g., convertible bonds, we present a new framework that relies on the probability distribution of a default jump rather than the default jump itself, as the default jump is usually inaccessible. As such, the model can back out the market prices of convertible bonds. A prevailing belief in the market is that convertible arbitrage is mainly due to convertible underpricing. Empirically, however, we do not find evidence supporting the underpricing hypothesis. Instead, we find that convertibles have relatively large positive gammas. As a typical convertible arbitrage strategy employs delta-neutral hedging, a large positive gamma can make the portfolio highly profitable, especially for a large movement in the underlying stock price.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Default Time ◽  
Form Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

scholarly journals Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Default Time ◽  
Form Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Operational Flaws on the Performance of Microfinance Institutions in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Adjei Gyamfi Gyimah ◽  
Annette Serwaa Agyeman ◽  
Solomon Adu-Asare
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Training ◽  
Regulatory Challenges

Microfinance institutions contribute significantly to the development of a country, and many of these institutions are found in most developing countries including Ghana. However, many challenges have been alleged to stifle the efforts of microfinance companies in their attempt to make their all-important contribution to the development of nations. This study explored the effect of operational flaws on the performance of microfinance institutions in Ghana. The results discovered flaws and challenges associated with the operations of the MFIs in many areas including corporate governance, credit risk management, credit administration, regulatory challenges, and training programs. The study also revealed that such flaws and challenges do harm the overall performance of the MFIs. Based on the findings, it is recommended that MFIs put in place a well-composed and resourceful credit committee to perform the duty of credit risk management in the institutions. The institutions could also reduce their interest rates to encourage their clients to apply for more loans. Lastly, it is recommended that the MFIs take all necessary steps to ensure that they reduce the flaws and challenges they face to mitigate the negative impact of such deficiencies on their performance.

FINANCIAL LITERACY AND FINANCIAL INCLUSION EFFECTS ON STABILITY AND COMPETITIVENESS INDICATORS IN THE BANKING SECTOR: CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE FOR AFRICA AND THE WORLD

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150009
Author(s):  
JOÃO JUNGO ◽  
MARA MADALENO ◽  
ANABELA BOTELHO
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Education ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

Financial inclusion has allowed financial products with very high-interest rates and complex conditions to become increasingly affordable. Financial inclusion programs, which aim to reach all social strata, strongly expose financial institutions to risk and particularly credit risk. That said, additional interventions such as financial education of those included are needed. We aim to examine the impact of financial literacy and financial inclusion of households on bank performance. Specifically, we want to examine the impact of financial literacy on credit risk, competitiveness among banks and financial stability. The FGLS estimation results suggest that financial literacy and financial inclusion reduce credit risk and enhance the stability of banks, and regarding competitiveness, our results were inconclusive as they show different effects for each competitiveness indicator, although they point to improved competitiveness in some cases. This research allows policymakers to understand that individual financial attitudes can be reflected in the general welfare of financial institutions and encourages the intensification of programs aimed at improving household financial literacy.

scholarly journals Pricing Options with Credit Risk in Markovian Regime-Switching Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinzhi Li ◽  
Shixia Ma
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Arrival Rate ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
European Option ◽  
Pricing Options ◽  
Markov Modulated ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper investigates the valuation of European option with credit risk in a reduced form model when the stock price is driven by the so-called Markov-modulated jump-diffusion process, in which the arrival rate of rare events and the volatility rate of stock are controlled by a continuous-time Markov chain. We also assume that the interest rate and the default intensity follow the Vasicek models whose parameters are governed by the same Markov chain. We study the pricing of European option and present numerical illustrations.

scholarly journals Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Default Time ◽  
Form Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

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