A Global Dynamic Capacity Risk Assessment and Prediction Method of Regional Rail Transit Network Based on Passenger Flow Monitoring

In terms of urban rail transit network vulnerability, most studies have focused on the network topology characteristics and travel cost changes after network incidents and analyzed rail transit network independently. The neglects of passenger flow distributions on the network and alternative public transport modes under rail network disruptions would either underestimate or overestimate the vulnerability of rail transit network, and thus lead to inaccurate results and decisions. This study presents an accessibility-based measurement for urban rail transit network vulnerability analysis and explicitly accounts for rail passenger flow characteristics, travel cost changes, and alternative transit modes. It is shown that the proposed approach is capable of measuring the consequences on rail network, and the advantages of the accessibility method are demonstrated and compared. The methodology is applied to the urban rail transit network of Shenzhen, China within a multi-modal public transport network. Results reveal that the consequences of disruptions on network accessibility are obviously different for stations with different passenger flow characteristics, and some undisrupted stations are found to be vulnerable under surrounding station failures. The proposed methodology offers reliable measurements on rail transit network vulnerability and implications for decision-making under rail network disruptions.

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Urban Rail Transit System Network Reliability Analysis Based on a Coupled Map Lattice Model

Journal of Advanced Transportation ◽

10.1155/2021/5548956 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Shaojie Wu ◽

Yan Zhu ◽

Ning Li ◽

Yizeng Wang ◽

Xingju Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Complex Network ◽

Network Reliability ◽

Urban Rail Transit ◽

Rail Transit ◽

Weighted Network ◽

Network Nodes ◽

Transit Network ◽

Passenger Flow ◽

Urban Rail ◽

Passenger Flows

During the last twenty years, the complex network modeling approach has been introduced to assess the reliability of rail transit networks, in which the dynamic performance involving passenger flows have attracted more attentions during operation stages recently. This paper proposes the passenger-flow-weighted network reliability evaluation indexes, to assess the impact of passenger flows on network reliability. The reliability performances of the rail transit network and passenger-flow-weighted one are analyzed from the perspective of a complex network. The actual passenger flow weight of urban transit network nodes was obtained from the Shanghai Metro public transportation card data, which were used to assess the reliability of the passenger-flow-weighted network. Furthermore, the dynamic model of the Shanghai urban rail transit network was constructed based on the coupled map lattice (CML) model. Then, the processes of cascading failure caused by network nodes under different destructive situations were simulated, to measure the changes of passenger-flow-weighted network reliability during the processes. The results indicate that when the scale of network damage attains 50%, the reliability of the passenger-flow-weighted network approaches zero. Consequently, taking countermeasures during the initial stage of network cascading may effectively prevent the disturbances from spreading in the network. The results of the paper could provide guidelines for operation management, as well as identify the unreliable stations within passenger-flow-weighted networks.

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