scholarly journals Weight of the Default Component of CDS Spreads: Avoiding Procyclicality in Credit Loss Provisioning Framework

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Networks ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
Risk Managers

The current expected loss calculations have recently attracted considerable attention in the research on credit risk modeling, impairment provisioning, and financial networks’ stability. A new CDS-based approach to estimate current expected credit loss is proposed for low default portfolios, containing credit exposures to corporate issuers covered by publicly traded CDS contracts. First, a fraction of CDS spread related to a pure default compensation for different CDS maturities is assessed. Our results contrast with previous research. Second, based on the obtained historical weights of the default risk premium, a forward-looking term structure of the probabilities of default implied by the current CDS quotes is derived. The proposed approach covers both investment and noninvestment grade debt. The resulting framework is applied to a sample of corporate bonds. The developed methodology provides a useful tool, on one hand, for credit risk managers and balance-sheet preparers and, on the other hand, for regulators of financial markets as it sheds light on how procyclicality could be avoided in provisions.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

scholarly journals The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Goldbach ◽  
Christian Fahrholz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Fiscal Institutions ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Stability

Sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area hinges upon the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We analyse whether political events that worsen the SGP's credibility result in a shared default risk premium for all euro members, therefore leading to a joint deterioration of creditworthiness. We especially examine the decisions and statements of the Commission and the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers. Analysing daily data through the 1999–2005 period with an ARMA-GARCH model, we find the Commission plays a decisive role in affecting investor evaluations, where its credibility-strengthening decisions decrease volatility and statements signalling a weakening of fiscal credibility spark uncertainty on financial markets. Our results stress the importance of creating credible fiscal institutions that preserve sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area.

scholarly journals Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Risk ◽  
Financial Contracts ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap

This article presents a new model for valuing financial contracts subject to credit risk and collateralization. Examples include the valuation of a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely in the CDS market.

DEFAULTABLE LÉVY LIBOR RATES AND CREDIT DERIVATIVES

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 407-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
FLORIAN HUEHNE
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Credit Derivatives ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Forward Measure ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Finance Theory ◽  
Phd Thesis

We introduce the intensity-based defaultable Lévy Libor model, which generalizes the default-free Lévy Libor model introduced by Eberlein and Özkan in [The defaultable Lévy term structure: Ratings and restructuring, Mathematical Finance13(2) (2003) 277–300], and the intensity-based defaultable model presented by Bielecki and Rutkowski in [Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging, Springer Finance (Springer-Verlag, 2002)] by embedding it in the defaultable HJM framework introduced by Eberlein and Özkan in [The defaultable Lévy term structure: Ratings and restructuring, Mathematical Finance13(2) (2003) 277–300]. We also derive some additional results for defaultable HJM models such as the dynamics of credit spreads. We then go on and model the default-free Libor rates and credit spreads as the primal variable and derive the dynamics of the defaultable Libor rates under the defaultable forward measure. Finally, we derive an explicit formula for options on credit default swaps, using an idea introduced by Raible in [Lévy Processes in finance: Theory, numerics and empirical facts, PhD thesis, University of Freiburg i. Brsg. (2000)].

ON SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELING CREDIT PORTFOLIO PRODUCTS

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 1305-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANK J. FABOZZI ◽  
RADU TUNARU
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Main Concept ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Probability Term ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Pricing Risk

The survival probability term structure has become the main concept in modeling credit risk for pricing, risk management, and investment decisions. The Kth-to-default contract is not only a relatively liquid credit risk instrument but also a vehicle that credit rating agencies employ to determine the rating of more esoteric credit risky positions. In this paper, we point out some subtleties in credit risk modeling of default baskets and also identify some potential bias in the pricing formula of the Kth-to-default contract. The numerical examples suggest that this bias increases with the correlation. The results in this paper emphasize the important role of conditioning the information regarding arrival of default.

scholarly journals Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Counterparty Risk ◽  
Financial Contracts ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap

This article presents a new model for valuing financial contracts subject to credit risk and collateralization. Examples include the valuation of a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely in the CDS market.

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