Mexico oil sector plans look highly optimistic

Significance The aim is for all production to be processed at Pemex refineries, and for petrol imports to be eliminated from 2023, making Mexico’s oil sector completely self-sufficient. Impacts The zero-exports strategy may prompt further downgrading of Pemex’s debt by rating agencies. Reduced oil exports would push Mexico’s trade and current accounts into deeper deficits, affecting the peso-dollar exchange rate. Crude export reduction by Mexico would have little to no effect on international prices.

Institutional structure formation of the global green finance market

The article studies the strategic directions of the Eurasian Development Bank as an important element of the institutional structure of the global green finance market.The current differentiated global structure of green finance market institutions has been shown, and the substantive focus of organisations at two levels of the institutional structure of this market has been shown. A statistical overview of green finance institutions by country, region, type and financial instruments used has been made. The role of multilateral development banks in the structure of such institutions has been shown. The need for the formation of institutions in the green financial market segment as a necessary element of green finance has been substantiated.The structure of institutions on two levels has been given: 1) subjects – participants of the green bond market; 2) a set of institutions developing and shaping the methodology for green financial instruments assessment, standards, taxonomy, ratings. Using the global green bond market as an example, up-to-date statistics and analysis of the broader composition of issuers of green financial instruments by country, world region, sovereign and corporate participants, and development institutions have been presented. Emphasis has been placed on public issuers and the participation of multilateral development institutions in financing green economy projects in various countries. The experience of Eurasian Economic Union countries in developing green finance has been summarised and the prospects for Russia and Kazakhstan in the green finance movement have been noted.The institutions of the differentiated structure of the global green finance market identified in the study have been grouped into two levels depending on the profile of their participation in the green economy; the directions and tools for the prospective development of the Eurasian Development Bank’s green finance activities have been defined; recommendations for prospective aspects of the methodological and analytical activities of the bank in the context of the Eurasian Development Bank Strategy 2022–2026 have been proposed.The study applied an analysis of scientific literature in the field of institutional theory, green economy and green finance, statistical, comparative, factual analysis, review and analysis of information from official websites of international development institutions, government and corporate entities, international rating agencies included in the architecture of the global green finance market.

The Sustainable Finance Landscape in Germany

This chapter discusses the current trend of mainstreaming sustainable finance in Germany. It provides an overview of contributions of different stakeholders to this trend and sheds light on the evolution of the sustainable finance landscape in Germany, including banks, the insurance sector, rating agencies, nonprofits, and academia. EU regulations are currently driving change and promoting sustainable finance in Germany. New policy initiatives and regulations are closely monitored and discussed by diverse stakeholders, including organisations with a long-standing expertise in promoting responsible and ethical investments. Advocacy-oriented nonprofits critically address greenwashing and engage in debates on qualitative aspects. The sustainable finance trend is expected to gain further traction in Germany.

Green Certification, Credit Rating, and Mainland Chinese Green Bonds in Hong Kong

This chapter discusses green certification and credit rating on Mainland Chinese green bonds in Hong Kong. These green bonds are mostly denominated in USD, distributed to global investors, and issued with international practices of green certification and credit rating. Using qualitative analysis and case study method, the chapter finds four external reviewers sharply different in their assessment framework although they attempt to assess degree of compliance of a bond issuance or a bond issuer with some international green standards. All the three global credit rating agencies claim their incorporation of green assessment into their credit rating process. However, the chapter finds no clear evidence on such claim from their credit rating comments on selected bond issuers.

Bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne Republiki Białoruś w dobie kryzysu polityczno-gospodarczego lat 2020-połowa 2021

Republic of Belarus begins the third decade of the 21st century with numerous problems, which include the unstable socio-political situation, broken dialogue and relations with the international environment, and Western sanctions. All these factors have caused a lot of turbulence in the Belarusian economy. This article is an attempt to examine the economic security of Belarus in the period of the depletion of the current economic model, the reduction of Russian energy subsidies, the Covid-19 pandemic and the political crisis resulting from the rigged presidential elections in August 2020. Data from the Belarusian Bielstat database, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and rating agencies will be used as source materials.

A proposed centralized Shariah governance framework for Islamic banks in Bangladesh

Purpose The purpose of this study is to propose a centralized Shariah governance framework (CSGF) for the Islamic banks and Shariah governance in Bangladesh as such, the existence and practices of the Shariah governance framework (SGF) are decentralized and diversified. Design/methodology/approach The paper implements a qualitative case study approach to develop a CSGF for the Islamic banks in Bangladesh. The data has been collected from 17 respondents through semi-structured interviews with a combination of regulators, Shariah supervisory board members, Shariah department executives and Shariah experts from the central bank and Islamic banks in Bangladesh. Findings This study proposes a CSGF which is comprising two-tier Shariah supervisory boards (SSBs), i.e. institutional SSB and centralized Shariah supervisory board (CSSB) under the central bank to monitor the overall functions of SG. The study recommends the setting up of four departments under the central bank to enhance the functions of CSSB. Besides, the central bank can introduce Shariah rating, external Shariah audit and external Shariah review through Islamic rating agencies and Islamic Chartered Accountant Firms for transparency and quality compliance which are more desired from the public and other stakeholders. Research limitations/implications The study significantly contributed to the national and global regulatory bodies by providing a structural CSGF for the Islamic banks to perform their functions and activities smoothly. Practical implications The study outlines a CSGF for the Islamic banks in Bangladesh as the existing practices are diversified and decentralized. Therefore, this framework would be helpful for the central bank and Islamic banks in Bangladesh to promote unique practices of the SGF. Originality/value This is the first research that provides a structure of CSGF for Islamic banks in Bangladesh, while the central bank of Malaysia developed the first SGF. There is no study concerning the demographic figure of CSGF of Islamic banks in the entire literature.

Dynamic modelling of corporate credit ratings and defaults

In this article, we propose a longitudinal multivariate model for binary and ordinal outcomes to describe the dynamic relationship among firm defaults and credit ratings from various raters. The latent probability of default is modelled as a dynamic process which contains additive firm-specific effects, a latent systematic factor representing the business cycle and idiosyncratic observed and unobserved factors. The joint set-up also facilitates the estimation of a bias for each rater which captures changes in the rating standards of the rating agencies. Bayesian estimation techniques are employed to estimate the parameters of interest. Several models are compared based on their out-of-sample prediction ability and we find that the proposed model outperforms simpler specifications. The joint framework is illustrated on a sample of publicly traded US corporates which are rated by at least one of the credit rating agencies S&P, Moody's and Fitch during the period 1995–2014.

ESG as a Measure of Credit Ratings

The aim of this study was to examine the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) measures on credit ratings given to non-financial institutions by the largest credit rating agencies according to economic sector divisions. The hypotheses were as follows: a strong negative impact on non-financial institutions’ credit rating changes will result from ESG risk changes, and the reaction of credit rating changes will vary in different sectors. Panel event models were used to verify these hypotheses. The study used data from the Thomson Reuters Database for the period 2010–2020. The analysis was based on the literature on credit rating determinants and on papers and reports on COVID-19, ESG factors, and their impact on credit rating changes. Linear decomposition was used for the analysis. To verify these hypotheses, long-term issuer credit ratings presented by Moody’s and Fitch for European companies listed on these stock exchanges have been used. In the analyses, financial and non-financial factors were also considered. The results suggested that, within the last year, the methodology presented by credit rating agencies has changed, and ESG factors are one of the basic measures that are used to verify credit rating changes, especially those related to the pandemic.