Review of the Bank of Russia – NES Workshop ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’

In October 2021, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School (NES) hosted a joint international online workshop titled ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’. Five papers were presented. They addressed various issues in banking which are currently of paramount importance to central bankers, market participants, and academics: the connections between systemic risk and the real economy, the digitalisation of finance and information asymmetries, credit spreads and monetary policy, the improvement of information flows and outcomes in credit markets, the introduction of central bank digital currencies, and bank intermediation.

Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Credit Spreads of Russian Firms

In this paper, I analyse the relationship between the credit spreads of Russian bond issuers and monetary policy shocks. According to the theory of demand-side financial imperfections, in the presence of financial frictions, the higher the net worth of a firm, the lower its external finance premium. The theory of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy suggests that monetary shocks may affect the net worth of a firm through debt outflows. Together, these ideas predict that the external finance premium of more indebted companies is more sensitive to monetary policy shocks. However, my empirical findings from the credit spreads of Russian companies do not support this theory.

Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility

We study the joint conditional distribution of GDP growth and corporate credit spreads using a stochastic volatility VAR. Our estimates display significant cyclical co-movement in uncertainty (the volatility implied by the conditional distributions), and risk (the probability of tail events) between the two variables. We also find that the interaction between two shocks--a main business cycle shock as in Angeletos et al. (2020) and a main financial shock--is crucial to account for the variation in uncertainty and risk, especially around crises. Our results highlight the importance of using multivariate nonlinear models to understand the determinants of uncertainty and risk.

Does ESG Disclosure Affect Corporate-Bond Credit Spreads? Evidence from China

With the exponential development of an ecological and sustainable economy and society, the concept and practice of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments are being popularized in the capital market of China. ESG disclosure is an important supplement to financial disclosure and plays an increasingly significant role in asset pricing. In this paper, we selected corporate bond data in China’s secondary bond market from 2015 to 2020, and introduced the Nelson–Siegel model to study the influence of ESG disclosure on corporate bond credit spreads in the secondary market. This model passed robustness tests when we used alternative data fitted by the modified Nelson–Siegel model. Results show that ESG disclosure significantly reduces credit spreads on corporate bonds in the secondary market. State ownership and industry play significant roles in moderating the impact of ESG disclosure on corporate bond credit spreads. Specifically, the ESG disclosure of non-state-owned companies and companies in non-high-pollution and -energy-consumption industries has a greater impact on reducing corporate bond credit spreads. Therefore, we urge regulatory departments to establish a sound ESG disclosure evaluation system, and the issue companies to improve the quality of their ESG disclosure, especially non-state-owned companies, and those in non-high-pollution and -energy-consumption industries. Corporate bond investors would benefit from integrating ESG information into their investment decision-making process.

Accounting downside risk measures and credit spreads

Purpose This study aims to examine the association between predictive accounting downside risk measures and changes in credit spreads. Building upon the earnings downside risk (EDR) measure developed in prior literature, this paper introduces cash flow downside risk (CFDR). Design/methodology/approach This study modifies an existing empirical framework (root lower partial moment) to calculate CFDR and applies it to a sample of firms between 2002 and 2013 for which credit default swap data are available. Findings After validating the measure, this study identifies a positive association between CFDR and changes in credit spreads. This paper further shows the association between CFDR and credit spread changes is stronger than that between EDR and credit spread changes. Financial stability moderates the relationship between CFDR and credit spreads. Originality/value This study proposes a novel measure of accounting downside risk, CFDR and demonstrates a negative association between this measure and future cash flow and a positive association between this measure and future credit spreads.

Dealer Inventory Constraints in the Corporate Bond Market during the COVID Crisis

Beginning in late February 2020, market liquidity for corporate bonds dried up and corporate bond credit spreads soared amid broad financial market dislocations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The causes of this liquidity dry-up and the spike in corporate bond spreads remain subjects of debate.

Volatility morphology of asset value and credit spread puzzle

Merton model has provided a classic theoretical framework for explaining credit spreads. This paper extends Merton model by introducing morphology factor of asset value volatility in the model, and conducts empirical studies on the effect of asset volatility morphology on credit spreads in China’s bond market. The results show that asset volatility morphology is economically important and can explain credit spreads well. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the asymmetric influences of monetary policy on credit spreads and asset volatility morphology. This paper points out that the responses of credit spreads and asset volatility morphology to monetary policy are consistent in the tight liquidity environments. To this end, monetary policy and liquidity, which are two factors that have been ignored by classic Merton model but proved to have significant influences on credit spreads, play roles in influencing credit spreads by changing volatility morphology of asset value. Since asset volatility morphology can reflect the change of investors’ expectation on the default probability of asset, the argument mentioned in the credit spread puzzle that the fundamentals related to bond default probability cannot explain credit spreads needs to be reexamined.

Feedbacks: Financial Markets and Economic Activity

Is credit expansion a sign of desirable financial deepening or the prelude to an inevitable bust? We study this question in modern US data using a structural VAR model of 10 monthly frequency variables, identified by heteroskedasticity. Negative reduced-form responses of output to credit growth are caused by endogenous monetary policy response to credit expansion shocks. On average, credit and output growth remain positively associated. “Financial stress” shocks to credit spreads cause declines in output and credit levels. Neither credit aggregates nor spreads provide much advance warning of the 2008–2009 crisis, but spreads improve within-crisis forecasts. (JEL C51, E23, E31, E43, E44, E52, G01)