scholarly journals Dynamic Cross-Correlations Analysis on Economic Policy Uncertainty and US Dollar Exchange Rate: AMF-DCCA Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ruwei Zhao ◽  
Yian Cui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Measurement Instrument ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Correlation Statistics

In this paper, we employ the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) as the measurement instrument for the dynamic cross-correlation inspection between US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index and US dollar exchange rate return (Ret). By calculating the cross-correlation statistics, we find mild acceptance of cross-correlation between EPU and Ret qualitatively. With further application of MF-DCCA methodology, we find strong power law cross-correlation existence within all scaling orders. Also, apparent persistence of cross-correlation has been discovered with significant Hurst exponents of all orders. Besides, we find that long-term cross-correlation demonstrates more persistence and higher degree of multifractality than those in the short term. Finally, we utilize the rolling window and binominal measurement analysis as revisits of the model. The results are consistent with model statements.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Local Carbon Emission Trading: A Multifractal Analysis from US and Guangdong

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ruwei Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Emission Trading ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Carbon Emission Trading ◽  
Correlation Statistics

This paper investigates the long-term dynamic cross-correlation evolution between US economic policy uncertainty index (USEPU) and Guangdong carbon emission trading price (GDCP) from the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) perspective. With the calculation of correlation statistics and fluctuation function, the beginning procedures of MF-DCCA, we find that the cross-correlation between USEPU and GDCP is significant and presents power law property. Also, with the Hurst exponent, we find that the long-horizon correlations between series are persistent. Moreover, we perform Rényi exponent and spectrum singularity check. The empirical findings reveal that the all the correlations are of multifractality and the correlation of GDCP holds the highest degree.

A Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China and US

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150041
Author(s):  
Ruwei Zhao ◽  
Peng-Fei Dai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Fluctuation ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Renyi Exponent

In this study, we utilized the prevailing economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) as the proxy of state economic fluctuation and investigated Sino–US economic fluctuation long horizon cross-correlation with a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). With the MF-DCCA approach, we found a reliable long-range cross-correlation between China and US EPU changes. In addition, we discovered that a power law cross-correlation existed for the variation of most scaling orders. However, no persistence of cross-correlations was detected within the Sino–US EPU change series. Additionally, we implemented Rényi exponent and spectrum singularity checks. Both the examination results proved series multifractality with the presented arch-shaped curves. We further calculated the Hölder exponent bounds within each series and found that the China EPU changes had maximal multifractality with the largest exponent difference.

Investigating the Uncertainty of Government Economic Policies on Inbound Tourism in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azam Mohammadzadeh ◽  
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Inbound Tourism

AbstractOver the past three decades, there has been an increasing focus on the subject of global tourism in Iran’s economy. This article examines the most important economic factors affecting this industry in this country, especially economic policy uncertainty. For this purpose, three models specify the number of tourists entering the country as a dependent variable and Consumer Price Index, Tehran Exchange Price Index, market exchange rate, semi-annual dummy variable, and exports as explanatory variables. To investigate the uncertainty of the government’s economic policies, three variables liquidity fluctuations, tax revenue fluctuations, and government expenditures fluctuations have been added along with the above variables. To obtain the fluctuations, the GARCH function is used then the relations are estimated by the GMM method. The estimation of models using monthly data from March 2011 to August 2018 shows that explanatory variables are significant. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has negatively affected the arrival of the tourist. An increase in exchange rate, consumer price index, exports, and stock market price index have a positive effect on the arrival of tourists. Therefore, due to inbound tourism sensitivity to shocks, the growth and survival of tourism depend on economic and political stability.

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