Investigating the Uncertainty of Government Economic Policies on Inbound Tourism in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azam Mohammadzadeh ◽  
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Inbound Tourism

AbstractOver the past three decades, there has been an increasing focus on the subject of global tourism in Iran’s economy. This article examines the most important economic factors affecting this industry in this country, especially economic policy uncertainty. For this purpose, three models specify the number of tourists entering the country as a dependent variable and Consumer Price Index, Tehran Exchange Price Index, market exchange rate, semi-annual dummy variable, and exports as explanatory variables. To investigate the uncertainty of the government’s economic policies, three variables liquidity fluctuations, tax revenue fluctuations, and government expenditures fluctuations have been added along with the above variables. To obtain the fluctuations, the GARCH function is used then the relations are estimated by the GMM method. The estimation of models using monthly data from March 2011 to August 2018 shows that explanatory variables are significant. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has negatively affected the arrival of the tourist. An increase in exchange rate, consumer price index, exports, and stock market price index have a positive effect on the arrival of tourists. Therefore, due to inbound tourism sensitivity to shocks, the growth and survival of tourism depend on economic and political stability.

Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-269
Author(s):  
Sumit Kumar Maji ◽  
Arindam Laha ◽  
Debasish Sur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Indices

Determination of significant sector specific macroeconomic factors under the board manufacturing industry is an important task. In Indian context, using the monthly data on five major manufacturing sector specific indices (such as BSE-Basic Materials, BSE-Consumer Discretionary Goods and Services, BSE-Fast Moving Consumer Goods, BSE-Health Care and BSE-Industrials) and the macroeconomic variables (gold price, index of industrial production, wholesale price index, money supply, foreign portfolio investment ratio (FPIR), rate of interest, real effective exchange rate and crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty) for the period September, 2005 to November, 2016, the present study attempted to explore the significant sector specific macroeconomic variables in long run as well as short run. The empirical results obtained by applying the ARDL-UECM model suggested that economic policy uncertainty, FPIR and price factor were observed to be the most important determinants of all the five sectoral stock indices for the study period.

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1344-1357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Işık ◽  
Ercan Sirakaya-Turk ◽  
Serdar Ongan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Impact

The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever before and sensitive to uncertainties related to a variety of economic policies decisions of all stakeholders and governments. These perceived uncertainties may be the culprit in shrinking the size of overall economic activity. Under increasing uncertainties, travel and vacation plans of consumers can be canceled or postponed. Therefore, policy-related economic uncertainties are expected to affect tourism demand beyond well-established economic and noneconomic factors. In this study, we explore the efficacy and the impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting the tourism demand on international tourist arrivals (a measure of tourism demand) to the United States from Mexico and Canada over the period of January 1996–September 2017. The findings of the study reveal that EPU is a significant predictor as increases in the EPU index lead to decreases in tourism demand to the United States. Canadian tourists seem to be more sensitive to EPUs. Increases in the EPU index cause them to reduce Canadians’ vacations to the United States proportionally more than the Mexicans. To enhance the explanatory power of current models, the uncertainty can be a theoretically significant construct thus needs to be included when calibrating demand models.

scholarly journals Assessment of Resident Happiness under Uncertainty of Economic Policies: Empirical Evidences from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7296
Author(s):  
Zhigang Ouyang ◽  
Fengyu Liu ◽  
Ge Zhai ◽  
Svitlana Bilan
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Household Asset ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty

The main aim of sustainable development is to increase the quality of life and resident happiness as the latter is one of the most important indicators for the assessment of quality of life. However, due to the uncertainty of economic policies, it will not only have a direct impact on resident well-being but may also indirectly affect resident well-being through specific channels. The economic policies are aimed at the achievement of sustainable development, therefore it is very important to investigate the influences of the uncertainty of economic policies on resident happiness. This allows to assess the sustainability of policies in terms of their inputs to the quality of life. The direct impact of economic policy uncertainty on resident well-being and the mediating effects of household asset allocation and the expectation on the above influencing relationship were analyzed based on the uncertainty index of China’s economic policies and households database of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) during the period 2010–2018, so as to clarify the complete path of economic policy uncertainty affecting resident happiness. Results show that the uncertainty of economic policy significantly reduces resident happiness. In the context of the uncertainty of economic policies, families can relieve such negative impacts as an increasing proportion of financial assets in their total assets. However, decreases in asset shares for household consumer goods and future expectation obviously lower resident happiness. The research conclusions provide important input in research on the influences of the uncertainty of economic policy on the quality of life and offer new evidences for the development of “happiness economics”.

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