Microsimulation Model for Health Economic Evaluation of Public Health Policies: An Imperfect but Useful Tool

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (17) ◽  
pp. 1377-1379
Author(s):  
Olivia Wu
Author(s):  
Hazel Squires ◽  
Kathleen Boyd

This chapter considers the use of modelling for public health economic evaluation. The approach to decision analytic modelling within health economic evaluation is described and five key challenges relating to modelling public health interventions are highlighted: incorporating equity; extrapolating multi-component intervention effectiveness beyond study data; capturing relevant complex relationships and feedback loops of a dynamically complex system; modelling human behaviour; and capturing relevant non-health costs and outcomes and the relationship between individual and social determinants. The chapter describes current practice and the latest methodological research in these areas. It outlines two general approaches which could help to address these challenges by (i) adopting an iterative approach to the evaluation by using early-stage decision modelling to guide primary data collection, and (ii) a conceptual modelling framework to guide the model development process.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e028365
Author(s):  
Lei Si ◽  
John A Eisman ◽  
Tania Winzenberg ◽  
Kerrie M Sanders ◽  
Jacqueline R Center ◽  
...  

IntroductionOsteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease that is characterised by reduced bone strength and increased fracture risk. Osteoporosis-related fractures impose enormous disease and economic burden to the society. Although many treatments and health interventions are proven effective to prevent fractures, health economic evaluation adds evidence to their economic merits. Computer simulation modelling is a useful approach to extrapolate clinical and economic outcomes from clinical trials and it is increasingly used in health economic evaluation. Many osteoporosis health economic models have been developed in the past decades; however, they are limited to academic use and there are no publicly accessible health economic models of osteoporosis.Methods and analysisWe will develop the Australian osteoporosis health economic model based on our previously published microsimulation model of osteoporosis in the Chinese population. The development of the model will follow the recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation. The model will be a state-transition semi-Markov model with memory. Clinical parameters in the model will be mainly obtained from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the health economic parameters will be collected from the Australian arm of the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study. Model transparency and validates will be tested using the recommendations from Good Research Practices in Modelling Task Forces. The model will be used in economic evaluations of osteoporosis interventions including pharmaceutical treatments and primary care interventions. A user-friendly graphical user interface will be developed, which will connect the user to the calculation engine and the results will be generated. The user interface will facilitate the use of our model by people in different sectors.Ethics and disseminationNo ethical approval is needed for this study. Results of the model validation and future economic evaluation studies will be submitted to journals. The user interface of the health economic model will be publicly available online accompanied with a user manual.


Diabetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2200-PUB
Author(s):  
WEI SONG ◽  
JIANXUAN WEN ◽  
LING ZHAO ◽  
GUANJIE FAN ◽  
MENG LUO ◽  
...  

HPB ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. S99
Author(s):  
K. Hasselgren ◽  
M. Henriksson ◽  
B. Røsok ◽  
P. Larsen ◽  
E. Sparrelid ◽  
...  

JAMIA Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Rowland W Pettit ◽  
Christopher I Amos

Abstract Objectives We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations. Materials and methods Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations. Results The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans. Discussion Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters. Conclusion Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.


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