scholarly journals External Validation of Five Scores to Predict Stroke-Associated Pneumonia and the Role of Selected Blood Biomarkers

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-330
Author(s):  
Benjamin Hotter ◽  
Sarah Hoffmann ◽  
Lena Ulm ◽  
Christian Meisel ◽  
Alejandro Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Literature Search ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Biomarker Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background and Purpose: Several clinical scoring systems as well as biomarkers have been proposed to predict stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP). We aimed to externally and competitively validate SAP scores and hypothesized that 5 selected biomarkers would improve performance of these scores. Methods: We pooled the clinical data of 2 acute stroke studies with identical data assessment: STRAWINSKI and PREDICT. Biomarkers (ultrasensitive procalcitonin; mid-regional proadrenomedullin; mid-regional proatrionatriuretic peptide; ultrasensitive copeptin; C-terminal proendothelin) were measured from hospital admission serum samples. A literature search was performed to identify SAP prediction scores. We then calculated multivariate regression models with the individual scores and the biomarkers. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare discrimination of these scores and models. Results: The combined cohort consisted of 683 cases, of which 573 had available backup samples to perform the biomarker analysis. Literature search identified 9 SAP prediction scores. Our data set enabled us to calculate 5 of these scores. The scores had area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.543 to 0.651 for physician determined SAP, 0.574 to 0.685 for probable and 0.689 to 0.811 for definite SAP according to Pneumonia in Stroke Consensus group criteria. Multivariate models of the scores with biomarkers improved virtually all predictions, but mostly in the range of an area under receiver operating characteristic curve delta of 0.05. Conclusions: All SAP prediction scores identified patients who would develop SAP with fair to strong capabilities, with better discrimination when stricter criteria for SAP diagnosis were applied. The selected biomarkers provided only limited added predictive value, currently not warranting addition of these markers to prediction models. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01264549 and NCT01079728.

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case–control design

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022199595
Author(s):  
Yalda Zarnegarnia ◽  
Shari Messinger
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case–control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.

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