Abstract
Purpose: To construct and evaluate a simple scoring scale for predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR).Methods: Based on the chronic disease management database of Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, China, 1896 diagnosed patients over the age of 50 with diabetes were randomly selected and subjected to the self-designed epidemiological questionnaire survey and ocular clinical examination. Single-factor and multi-factor logistic regression analysis was used to screen the relevant influencing factors of DR and then according to the reference value principle, the weights were assigned, and a simple scoring scale was constructed. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was developed and the accuracy and validity of the simple scale were evaluated.Results: The DR detection rate was 34.8 %. Multivariate analysis showed that family history of diabetes (odds ratio [OR]: 1.322, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.012-1.727), diabetes treatment method (OR: 2.074, 95 % CI: 1.696-2.537), diabetes duration (OR: 1.113, 95 % CI: 1.089-1.138), and hemoglobin (Hb)A1c (OR: 1.276, 95 % CI: 1.099-1.482) were independent DR risk factors. After excluding confounding factors and based on the β coefficient of the multivariate logistic analysis, the scale had a maximum score of 12 points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.753, the cut-off value was 4, the sensitivity was 66.5 %, and the coincidence rate was 70.9 %. To improve sensitivity, the cut-off value was lowered to 3; the sensitivity was 79.7 %, and the coincidence rate was 65.0 %.Conclusion: The simple scale had good sensitivity and the ability to identify DR patients.