scholarly journals A Two-Tier Statistical Forecast Method for Agricultural and Resource Management Simulations

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1573-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget ◽  
Jonghan Ko
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Phase Systems ◽  
Simple Phase

Abstract Simple phase schemes to predict seasonal climate based on leading ENSO indicators can be used to estimate the value of forecast information in agriculture and watershed management, but may be limited in predictive skill. Here, a simple two-tier statistical method is used to hindcast seasonal precipitation over the continental United States, and the resulting skill is compared with that of ENSO phase systems based on Niño-3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and Southern Oscillation index (SOI) persistence. The two-tier approach first predicts Niño-3 winter season SSTA, and then converts those predictions to categorical precipitation hindcasts via a simple phase translation process. The hindcasting problem used to make these comparisons is relevant to winter wheat production over the central United States. Thus, given the state of seasonal SOI and Niño-3 indicators defined before August, the goal is to predict the tercile category of the following November–March precipitation. Generally, it was found that the methods based on either predicted or persisted winter Niño-3 conditions were skillful over areas where ENSO affects U.S. winter precipitation—that is, the Southeast and the Gulf Coast, Texas, the southern and central plains, the Southwest, Northwest, and the Ohio River valley—and that the two-tier approach based on predicted Niño-3 conditions was more likely to provide the best skill. Skill based on SOI persistence was generally lower over many of those regions and was insignificant over broad parts of the central and southwest United States, but did lead the other methods over the Ohio River valley and the northwest. A more restrictive test of leading hindcast skill showed that the skill advantages of the two-tier approach over the central and western United States were not substantial, and mainly highlighted SOI persistence’s lack of skill over the central United States and leading skill over the Ohio River valley. However, two-tier hindcasts based on neural-network-predicted Niño-3 SSTA were clearly more skillful than both ENSO phase methods over areas of the Southeast. It is suggested that the relative skill advantage of the two-tier approach may be due in part to the use of arbitrary thresholds in ENSO phase systems.

scholarly journals Precipitation Characteristics of Warm Season Weather Types in the Southeastern United States of America

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1001
Author(s):  
Jian-Hua Qian ◽  
Brian Viner ◽  
Stephen Noble ◽  
David Werth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
El Nino ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Fair Weather ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Rainy Weather

Daily weather types (WTs) over the Southeast United States have been analyzed using 850 hPa winds from reanalysis data from March to October of 1979–2019. Six WTs were obtained. WTs 1–3 represent mid-latitude synoptic systems propagating eastward. WT4 is a summer-type pattern predominantly occurring in June–August, with the center of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) along the Gulf coast in the southern United States. WT5 is most frequent from August to middle October, with the NASH pushed further north and southerly winds over the northern Great Plains. An anticyclone centered at the Carolina coast characterizes WT6, which occurs in all months but is slightly more frequent in the spring and fall, especially in October, corresponding to fair weather in the region. WTs 1, 2 and 3 can persist for only a few days. WTs 4, 5 and 6 can have long spells of persistence. Besides self-persistence, the most observed progression loop is WT1 to WT2, to WT3, and then back to WT1, corresponding to eastward-propagating waves. WTs 4 and 5 are likely to show persistence, with long periods of consecutive days. WT6 usually persists but can also transfer to WT3, i.e., a change from fair weather in the Southeast U.S. to rainy weather in the Mississippi River Valley. A diurnal cycle of precipitation is apparent for each WT, especially over coastal plains. The nocturnal precipitation in central U.S. is associated with WT3. WTs 1–3 are more frequent in El Niño years, corresponding to stronger westerly wave activities and above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. in the spring. The positive rainfall anomaly in the Mississippi and Ohio River valley in El Niño years is also associated with more frequent WT3.

scholarly journals Stewart's Wilt Reactions of an International Collection of Zea mays Germ Plasm Inoculated with Erwinia stewartii

Plant Disease ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 84 (8) ◽  
pp. 901-906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerald K. Pataky ◽  
Lindsey J. du Toit ◽  
Noah D. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Germ Plasm ◽  
Sweet Corn ◽  
The United States ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Stewart's Wilt

Maize accessions were evaluated in 1997, 1998, and 1999 to identify additional sources of Stewart's wilt resistance and to determine if reactions differed among accessions collected from various regions of the United States and throughout the world. The distributions of Stewart's wilt reactions rated from 1 (no appreciable spread of symptoms) to 9 (dead plants) were relatively similar among groups of accessions from all regions of the world except for those from the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio River Valley region of the United States, the southern United States, and the northeastern United States. The mean and median Stewart's wilt rating for 1,991 accessions evaluated in 1997 was 4. The mean Stewart's wilt rating for 245 accessions collected from the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio River Valley region was 3.1, which was significantly lower than that for accessions from all other regions. The mean rating for accessions from the southern United States was 3.7, which also was lower than mean ratings for accessions from all other regions. Ratings from trials in 1997 and 1998 were highly correlated (r = 0.87) for 292 accessions and 15 sweet corn hybrid checks evaluated in both years. Of 20 accessions rated below 2 in 1997 and 1998, seven were from Virginia, seven were from the Ohio River Valley or central Corn Belt of the United States, four were from the northern or western Corn Belt of the United States, and two were from Spain. Ratings for these accessions ranged from 1.7 to 3.1 in 1999. Ratings ranged from 2.6 to 3.7 for F1 hybrids of these accessions crossed with one of two susceptible sweet corn inbreds, CrseW30 or Crse16, which were rated 5.7 and 5.4, respectively. Based on the reactions of this collection of germ plasm, it appears that high levels of Stewart's wilt resistance are prevalent only among accessions collected from areas where the disease has been endemic for several years, whereas moderate levels of resistance can be found in accessions collected from nearly everywhere in the world.

Development of communication networks and water quality early warning detection systems at drinking water utilities in the Ohio river valley basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 52 (9) ◽  
pp. 235-242
Author(s):  
J.G. Schulte ◽  
A.H. Vicory
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
The United States ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Source Water ◽  
Ohio River Valley

Source water quality is of major concern to all drinking water utilities. The accidental introduction of contaminants to their source water is a constant threat to utilities withdrawing water from navigable or industrialized rivers. The events of 11 September, 2001 in the United States have heightened concern for drinking water utility security as their source water and finished water may be targets for terrorist acts. Efforts are underway in several parts of the United States to strengthen early warning capabilities. This paper will focus on those efforts in the Ohio River Valley Basin.

scholarly journals Climate of the weakly-forced yet high-impact convective storms throughout the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 5709-5721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binod Pokharel ◽  
S.-Y. Simon Wang ◽  
Jonathan Meyer ◽  
Robert Gillies ◽  
Yen-Heng Lin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Impact ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
Convective Storms

Sustainable management of the Ohio River (USA) by an interjurisdictionally represented commission

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan H. Vicory ◽  
Peter A. Tennant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Water Quality Monitoring ◽  
The United States ◽  
River Valley ◽  
United States Government ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
Major River

In 1948 the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) was established to abate pollution of a major river basin in the United States. The commission consists of representatives of eight states in the Ohio River Valley and the United States Government. The necessity of such an interstate commission, representing multiple jurisdictions, reflects the nature of the Ohio River which is approximately 1,580 km in length, transverses six states, and is extensively used for public and industrial water supply, wastewater disposal, transportation, power generation and recreation. ORSANCO's programmes include coordination and communication, setting and enforcing wastewater discharge standards, operating key water quality monitoring programmes for the Ohio River and major tributaries, data assessments and studies to evaluate problems and programmes for remediation, and monitoring when spills occur. The Commission's approach to achieving improved water quality, while at the same time balancing the needs of the users of the river, is accomplished by successfully involving and integrating the various interests in river management (governmental agencies, industry, public utilities, other river users and the general public) into its programme planning and implementation. Thus an intergovernmental agency which encourages co-operation with non-governmental entities can be an effective approach to sustainable management of a major river.

Observation-Based Assessment of the Impact of Nitrogen Oxides Emissions Reductions on Ozone Air Quality over the Eastern United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 994-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edith Gégo ◽  
P. Steven Porter ◽  
Alice Gilliland ◽  
S. Trivikrama Rao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Nitrogen Oxides ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Ozone is produced by chemical interactions involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. At high concentrations, ground-level ozone has been shown to be harmful to human health and to the environment. It has been recognized that ozone is a regional-scale problem and that regionwide control strategies would be needed to improve ozone air quality in the eastern United States. To mitigate interstate transport of ozone and its precursors, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a regional rule in 1998 known as the “NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call,” requiring 21 states in the eastern United States to reduce their summertime NOx emissions by 30 May 2004. In this paper, the effectiveness of the new emission control measures mandated by the NOx SIP Call is assessed by quantifying the changes that occurred in the daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations measured at nearly 50 locations, most of which are rural (33 sites of the Clean Air Status and Trend Network and 16 sites of the Air Quality System), over the eastern United States. Given the strong dependence of ozone formation and accumulation on meteorological conditions, the incidence of the latter is first mitigated, and meteorologically adjusted ozone concentrations are extracted using a multiple regression technique. By examining the differences between the cumulative distribution functions of the meteorologically adjusted ozone concentrations, it is shown that ozone concentrations in the eastern United States are now on average 13% less than those prior to the NOx SIP Call. Using back-trajectory analyses, it is also shown that emission controls on the electricity-generating units located in the Ohio River Valley have contributed toward the improvement of ozone air quality in downwind regions, especially east and northeast of the Ohio River Valley.

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