scholarly journals CLASI: coordinating innovative observations and modeling to improve coastal environmental prediction systems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transition Region ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Monterey Bay ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Receiver Arrays ◽  
Coastal Land

Abstract The Coastal Land-Air-Sea-Interaction (CLASI) project aims to develop new “coast-aware” atmospheric boundary and surface layer parameterizations that represent the complex land-sea transition region through innovative observational and numerical modeling studies. The CLASI field effort will involve an extensive array of more than 40 land- and ocean-based moorings and towers deployed within varying coastal domains, including sandy, rocky, urban, and mountainous shorelines. Eight Air-Sea Interaction Spar (ASIS) buoys are positioned within the coastal and nearshore zone, the largest and most concentrated deployment of this unique, established measurement platform. Additionally, an array of novel nearshore buoys, and a network of land-based surface flux towers are complimented by spatial sampling from aircraft, shore-based radars, drones and satellites. CLASI also incorporates unique electromagnetic wave (EM) propagation measurements using coherent transmitter/receiver arrays to understand evaporation duct variability in the coastal zone. The goal of CLASI is to provide a rich dataset for validation of coupled, data assimilating large eddy simulations (LES) and the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®). CLASI observes four distinct coastal regimes within Monterey Bay, California (MB). By coordinating observations with COAMPS and LES simulations, the CLASI efforts will result in enhanced understanding of coastal physical processes and their representation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models tailored to the coastal transition region. CLASI will also render a rich dataset for model evaluation and testing in support of future improvements to operational forecast models.

Exploring trends for the H SAF ASCAT root-zone soil moisture data records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fairbairn ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Peter Weston
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Soil Moisture Data ◽  
Negative Root ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Water Scarce

<p>Environmental (e.g. floods, droughts) and weather prediction systems rely on an accurate representation of soil moisture (SM). The EUMETSAT H SAF aims to provide high quality satellite-based hydrological products, including SM.<br>ECMWF is producing ASCAT root zone SM for H SAF. The production relies on an Extended Kalman filter to retrieve root zone SM from surface SM satellite data. A 10 km sampling reanalysis product (1992-2020) forced by ERA5 atmospheric fields (H141/H142) is produced for H SAF, which assimilates ERS/SCAT (1992-2006) and ASCAT-A/B/C (2007-2020) derived surface SM. The root-zone SM performance is validated using sparse in situ observations globally and generally demonstrates a positive and consistent correlation over the period. A negative trend in root-zone SM is found during summer and autumn months over much of Europe during the period (1992-2020). This is consistent with expected climate change impacts and is particularly alarming over the water-scarce Mediterranean region. The recent hot and dry summer of 2019 and dry spring of 2020 are well captured by negative root-zone SM anomalies. Plans for the future H SAF data record products will be presented, including the assimilation of high-resolution EPS-SCA-derived soil moisture data.</p>

scholarly journals Demistify: a large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) intercomparison of radiation fog

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 319-333
Author(s):  
Ian Boutle ◽  
Wayne Angevine ◽  
Jian-Wen Bao ◽  
Thierry Bergot ◽  
Ritthik Bhattacharya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Eddy Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Droplet Size Distribution ◽  
Radiation Fog ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Cloud Droplet Size Distribution ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Les Model

Abstract. An intercomparison between 10 single-column (SCM) and 5 large-eddy simulation (LES) models is presented for a radiation fog case study inspired by the Local and Non-local Fog Experiment (LANFEX) field campaign. Seven of the SCMs represent single-column equivalents of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, whilst three are research-grade SCMs designed for fog simulation, and the LESs are designed to reproduce in the best manner currently possible the underlying physical processes governing fog formation. The LES model results are of variable quality and do not provide a consistent baseline against which to compare the NWP models, particularly under high aerosol or cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) conditions. The main SCM bias appears to be toward the overdevelopment of fog, i.e. fog which is too thick, although the inter-model variability is large. In reality there is a subtle balance between water lost to the surface and water condensed into fog, and the ability of a model to accurately simulate this process strongly determines the quality of its forecast. Some NWP SCMs do not represent fundamental components of this process (e.g. cloud droplet sedimentation) and therefore are naturally hampered in their ability to deliver accurate simulations. Finally, we show that modelled fog development is as sensitive to the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution, a rarely studied or modified part of the microphysical parameterisation, as it is to the underlying aerosol or CDNC.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF NOAA’S AIRBORNE HURRICANE FIELD PROGRAM AND A BROADER FUTURE APPROACH TO FORECAST IMPROVEMENT

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-79
Author(s):  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Robert F. Rogers ◽  
Sim D. Aberson ◽  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
George Alvey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Research Division ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Operational Models ◽  
National Hurricane Center ◽  
Operations Center ◽  
Aircraft Data

AbstractSince 2005, NOAA has conducted the annual Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), led by scientists from the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic andMeteorological Laboratory. They partner with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, who maintain and operate the WP-3D and G-IV Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and NCEP’s National Hurricane Center and Environmental Modeling Center, who task airborne missions to gather data used by forecasters for analysis and forecasting and for ingest into operational numerical weather prediction models. The goal of IFEX is to improve tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts using an integrated approach of analyzing observations from aircraft, initializing and evaluating forecast models with those observations, and developing new airborne instrumentation and observing strategies targeted at filling observing gaps and maximizing the data’s impact in model forecasts. This summary article not only highlights recent IFEX contributions towards improved TC understanding and prediction, but also reflects more broadly on the accomplishments of the program during the 16 years of its existence. It describes how IFEX addresses high-priority forecast challenges, summarizes recent collaborations, describes advancements in observing systems monitoring structure and intensity, as well as in assimilation of aircraft data into operational models, and emphasizes key advances in understanding of TC processes, particularly those that lead to rapid intensification. The article concludes by laying the foundation for the “next generation” of IFEX as it broadens its scope to all TC hazards, particularly rainfall, storm-surge inundation, and tornadoes, that have gained notoriety during the last few years after several devastating landfalling TCs.

scholarly journals Assessment of ocean analysis and forecast from an atmosphere–ocean coupled data assimilation operational system

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1307-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Guiavarc'h ◽  
Jonah Roberts-Jones ◽  
Chris Harris ◽  
Daniel J. Lea ◽  
Andrew Ryan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Current System ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Weakly Coupled ◽  
Ocean Prediction ◽  
Coupled Data Assimilation ◽  
Ocean Forecasting ◽  
Prediction Systems

Abstract. The development of coupled atmosphere–ocean prediction systems with utility on short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) and ocean forecasting timescales has accelerated over the last decade. This builds on a body of evidence showing the benefit, particularly for weather forecasting, of more correctly representing the feedbacks between the surface ocean and atmosphere. It prepares the way for more unified prediction systems with the capability of providing consistent surface meteorology, wave and surface ocean products to users for whom this is important. Here we describe a coupled ocean–atmosphere system, with weakly coupled data assimilation, which was operationalised at the Met Office as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service (CMEMS). We compare the ocean performance to that of an equivalent ocean-only system run at the Met Office and other CMEMS products. Sea surface temperatures in particular are shown to verify better than in the ocean-only systems, although other aspects including temperature profiles and surface currents are slightly degraded. We then discuss the plans to improve the current system in future as part of the development of a “coupled NWP” system at the Met Office.

scholarly journals PostProcessing and Visualization Techniques for Convection-Allowing Ensembles

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (7) ◽  
pp. 1245-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett Roberts ◽  
Israel L. Jirak ◽  
Adam J. Clark ◽  
Steven J. Weiss ◽  
John S. Kain
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
Explicit Simulation ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Visualization Techniques

AbstractSince the early 2000s, growing computing resources for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and scientific advances enabled development and testing of experimental, real-time deterministic convection-allowing models (CAMs). By the late 2000s, continued advancements spurred development of CAM ensemble forecast systems, through which a broad range of successful forecasting applications have been demonstrated. This work has prepared the National Weather Service (NWS) for practical usage of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system, which was implemented operationally in November 2017. Historically, methods for postprocessing and visualizing products from regional and global ensemble prediction systems (e.g., ensemble means and spaghetti plots) have been applied to fields that provide information on mesoscale to synoptic-scale processes. However, much of the value from CAMs is derived from the explicit simulation of deep convection and associated storm-attribute fields like updraft helicity and simulated reflectivity. Thus, fully exploiting CAM ensembles for forecasting applications has required the development of fundamentally new data extraction, postprocessing, and visualization strategies. In the process, challenges imposed by the immense data volume inherent to these systems required new approaches when considering diverse factors like forecaster interpretation and computational expense. In this article, we review the current state of postprocessing and visualization for CAM ensembles, with a particular focus on forecast applications for severe convective hazards that have been evaluated within NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed. The HREF web viewer implemented at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is presented as a prototype for deploying these techniques in real time on a flexible and widely accessible platform.

scholarly journals Evaluating U.S. East Coast Winter Storms in a Multimodel Ensemble Using EOF and Clustering Approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 1967-1987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minghua Zheng ◽  
Edmund K. M. Chang ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
East Coast Winter Storms ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and fuzzy clustering tools were applied to generate and validate scenarios in operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for U.S. East Coast winter storms. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) EPSs were validated in their ability to capture the analysis scenarios for historical East Coast cyclone cases at lead times of 1–9 days. The ECMWF ensemble has the best performance for the medium- to extended-range forecasts. During this time frame, NCEP and CMC did not perform as well, but a combination of the two models helps reduce the missing rate and alleviates the underdispersion. All ensembles are underdispersed at all ranges, with combined ensembles being less underdispersed than the individual EPSs. The number of outside-of-envelope cases increases with lead time. For a majority of the cases beyond the short range, the verifying analysis does not lie within the ensemble mean group of the multimodel ensemble or within the same direction indicated by any of the individual model means, suggesting that all possible scenarios need to be taken into account. Using the EOF patterns to validate the cyclone properties, the NCEP model tends to show less intensity and displacement biases during 1–3-day lead time, while the ECMWF model has the smallest biases during 4–6 days. Nevertheless, the ECMWF forecast position tends to be biased toward the southwest of the other two models and the analysis.

LANFEX: A Field and Modeling Study to Improve Our Understanding and Forecasting of Radiation Fog

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2061-2077 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Price ◽  
S. Lane ◽  
I. A. Boutle ◽  
D. K. E. Smith ◽  
T. Bergot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Radiation Fog ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Weather Phenomenon ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Aerosol Activation

AbstractFog is a high-impact weather phenomenon affecting human activity, including aviation, transport, and health. Its prediction is a longstanding issue for weather forecast models. The success of a forecast depends on complex interactions among various meteorological and topographical parameters; even very small changes in some of these can determine the difference between thick fog and good visibility. This makes prediction of fog one of the most challenging goals for numerical weather prediction. The Local and Nonlocal Fog Experiment (LANFEX) is an attempt to improve our understanding of radiation fog formation through a combined field and numerical study. The 18-month field trial was deployed in the United Kingdom with an extensive range of equipment, including some novel measurements (e.g., dew measurement and thermal imaging). In a hilly area we instrumented flux towers in four adjacent valleys to observe the evolution of similar, but crucially different, meteorological conditions at the different sites. We correlated these with the formation and evolution of fog. The results indicate new quantitative insight into the subtle turbulent conditions required for the formation of radiation fog within a stable boundary layer. Modeling studies have also been conducted, concentrating on high-resolution forecast models and research models from 1.5-km to 100-m resolution. Early results show that models with a resolution of around 100 m are capable of reproducing the local-scale variability that can lead to the onset and development of radiation fog, and also have identified deficiencies in aerosol activation, turbulence, and cloud micro- and macrophysics, in model parameterizations.

Using field data–based large eddy simulation to understand role of atmospheric stability on energy production of wind turbines

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 625-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan Nielson ◽  
Kiran Bhaganagar
Keyword(s):  
Large Eddy Simulation ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Surface Heat Flux ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Large Eddy

A novel and a robust high-fidelity numerical methodology has been developed to realistically estimate the net energy production of full-scale horizontal axis wind turbines in a convective atmospheric boundary layer, for both isolated and multiple wind turbine arrays by accounting for the wake effects between them. Large eddy simulation has been used to understand the role of atmospheric stability in net energy production (annual energy production) of full-scale horizontal axis wind turbines placed in the convective atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations are performed during the convective conditions corresponding to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory field campaign of July 2015. A mathematical framework was developed to incorporate the field-based measurements as boundary conditions for the large eddy simulation by averaging the surface flux over multiple diurnal cycles. The objective of the study is to quantify the role of surface flux in the calculation of energy production for an isolated, two and three wind turbine configuration. The study compares the mean value, +1 standard deviation, and −1 standard deviation from the measured surface flux to demonstrate the role of surface heat flux. The uniqueness of the study is that power deficits from large eddy simulation were used to determine wake losses and obtain a net energy production that accounts for the wake losses. The frequency of stability events, from field measurements, is input into the calculation of an ensemble energy production prediction with wake losses for different wind turbine arrays. The increased surface heat flux increases the atmospheric turbulence into the wind turbines. Higher turbulence results in faster wake recovery by a factor of two. The faster wake recovery rates result in lowering the power deficits from 46% to 28% for the two-turbine array. The difference in net energy production between the +1 and −1 standard deviation (with respect to surface heat flux) simulations was 10% for the two-turbine array and 8% for the three-turbine array. An ensemble net energy production by accounting for the wake losses indicated the overestimation of annual energy production from current practices could be corrected by accounting for variation of surface flux from the mean value.

scholarly journals Dealing with uncertainty: turbulent parameterizations and grid-spacing effects in numerical modelling of deep moist convective processes

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1871-1880 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Fiori ◽  
A. Parodi ◽  
F. Siccardi
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Fine Mesh ◽  
Spacing Effects ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Turbulent Closure ◽  
Ground Effects

Abstract. Computer power has grown to the point that very-fine-mesh mesoscale modelling is now possible. Going down through scales is clumsily supposed to reduce uncertainty and to improve the predictive ability of the models. This work provides a contribution to understand how the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) of severe weather events is affected by increasing the model grid resolution and by choosing a parameterization which is able to represent turbulent processes at such finer scales. A deep moist convective scenario, a supercell, in a simplified atmospheric setting is studied by mean of high resolution numerical simulations with COSMO-Model. Different turbulent closures are used and their impacts on the space-time properties of convective fields are discussed. The convective-resolving solutions adopting Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulent closure converge with respect to the overall flow field structure when grid spacing is properly reduced. By comparing the rainfall fields produced by the model on larger scales with those at the convergence scales it's possible to size up the uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself on the predicted ground effects in such simplified scenario.

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