Predictive Ability
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2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 9970
Emilija Kostic ◽  
Kiyoung Kwak ◽  
Dongwook Kim

Postural stability, hearing, and gait function deterioration are the risk factors associated with cognitive impairment. Although no method has been reported for treating severe cognitive impairment to date, developing an early detection model based on these risk factors could aid in slowing down or even reversing the deterioration process. In this study, the association between cognitive impairment and the combined predictive ability of sensory and gait features was assessed. Fifty−seven healthy community−dwelling men over the age of sixty−five participated in cognitive, postural stability, auditory, and level walking evaluations. They were divided into two groups: healthy control group (n = 39) and lower cognition group (n = 18), based on their Montreal cognitive assessment score. During gait, the center of mass of the cognitively impaired participants was confined to a smaller volume. Furthermore, the cognitively healthy participants were found to have better postural stability. Both groups possessed similar hearing ability; however, the cognitively impaired group made a significantly higher number of errors when repeating words or sentences. A logistic regression model utilizing each of these function quantifiers exhibited a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, suggesting excellent predictive ability. These models can be applied to smartphone or smart home healthcare technologies to detect the possibility of cognitive impairment, thus facilitating early detection.

2021 ◽  
Yaduan Lin ◽  
Shuo Zhu ◽  
Fanchen He ◽  
Jiachun Wei ◽  
Han Lu ◽  

Abstract Objective: To establish a reliable nomogram model to predict the recurrence rate of ovarian cancer after surgery. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 216 patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer in our hospital, of which 164 cases were considered valid. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the possible predictors. After that, a nomogram model based on those significantly related predictors was established. We used the bootstrap to internally validate the predictive ability of the nomogram model and used the decision curve analysis (DCA) to compare the performance of the FIGO stage with this model. Results: The nomogram included seven significant recurrence predictors: age, histology type, FIGO stage, omentum involvement, lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI), liver metastasis, and serum CA125. The measurement values for accuracy were Brier score 0.131, correction slope 1.00, and c-index 0.870. which demonstrated this model had a good predictive ability. Compared with the FIGO stage, this hybrid model is more superior in predicting recurrence risk in ovarian cancer patients. Conclusions: We developed and validated a non-invasion and user-friendly nomogram model to predict the recurrence risk of patients with ovarian cancer after surgery.

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 4838
Hiroaki Takaya ◽  
Tadashi Namisaki ◽  
Soichi Takeda ◽  
Kosuke Kaji ◽  
Hiroyuki Ogawa ◽  

Mortality and recurrence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are high. Recent studies show that for patients with HCC beyond up-to-seven criteria, treatment with molecular-targeted agents (MTAs) is recommended because the treatment efficiency of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is poor; further, TACE increases decline in liver function. However, the relationship between TACE and liver function decline in patients with HCC within up-to-seven criteria has not been clarified. Hence, we aimed to investigate this relationship. This retrospective observational study included 189 HCC tumors within up-to-seven criteria in 114 Child–Pugh class A patients. Twenty-four (12.7%) tumors were changed from Child–Pugh class A to B after TACE, and 116 (61.4%) tumors exhibited recurrence within 6 months after TACE. Prothrombin time (PT) and albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) score before TACE were significantly associated with liver dysfunction from Child–Pugh class A to B. The combination of PT and ALBI score before TACE had high predictive ability for liver dysfunction from Child–Pugh class A to B after TACE (specificity = 100%, sensitivity = 91.7%). The combined use of pre-TACE PT and ALBI score has a high predictive ability for liver dysfunction after TACE for Child–Pugh class A patients with HCC within up-to-seven criteria.

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Jidapa Iamwat ◽  
Wanwarang Teerasamit ◽  
Piyaporn Apisarnthanarak ◽  
Napakadol Noppakunsomboon ◽  
Rathachai Kaewlai

Abstract Background Paradigm shift toward nonoperative management (NOM) of adult appendicitis has made computed tomography (CT) more important than ever, particularly in differentiating complicated from uncomplicated disease. Complete surgical and pathological data of appendicitis in a place where appendectomy at initial admission is a standard of care would allow retrospective review of preoperative CT for performance and predictive ability in identifying those that may benefit from NOM in the future. Results The study included 201 CT scans of consecutive adult patients who presented for appendectomy at initial admission with pathologically confirmed acute appendicitis. Complicated appendicitis referred to gangrene or perforation on pathological or operative findings. The overall CT sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for differentiation of complicated from uncomplicated appendicitis were 87.2%, 75.7% and 81.1%, respectively. The most sensitive CT findings of complicated appendicitis were mucosal enhancement defect (83.2%; 95% CI 74.1–90.0) and moderate-to-severe periappendiceal fat stranding (96.8%; 95% CI 91.1–99.3), both independently predictive of complicated appendicitis with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 4.62 (95% CI 1.86–11.51) and 4.41 (95% CI 1.06–18.29), respectively. Phlegmon, fluid collection, extraluminal appendicolith, periappendiceal air and small bowel dilatation had specificity of 98.1–100%. Intraluminal appendicoliths were found more frequently in complicated appendicitis (52.6% vs. 22.6%) but not predictive for this diagnosis. Independent clinical predictors of complicated appendicitis were lack of pain migration (OR 2.06), neutrophilia ≥ 82% (OR (2.87) and symptoms ≥ 24 h (OR 5.84). Conclusions CT findings were highly accurate in differentiating complicated from uncomplicated appendicitis among patients undergone appendectomy at initial admission.

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Cagatay Cavusoglu ◽  
Gozde Tahtaci ◽  
Rana Tuna Dogrul ◽  
Ibrahim Ileri ◽  
Funda Yildirim ◽  

Abstract Background Pre-treatment evaluation for sarcopenia is recommended in cancer patients. New screening tests that are less time-consuming and can identify patients who will potentially benefit from geriatric assessment are being developed; the G8 geriatric screening test is one such example. We aimed to investigate whether the G8 screening test can detect probable sarcopenia and is valid and reliable compared to a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in Turkish older adults with solid cancers. Methods We included solid cancer patients referred to a single center. Probable sarcopenia and abnormal CGA were defined as low handgrip strength. Cut-offs for handgrip strength in the Turkish population have been previously determined to be 32 kg for males and 22 kg for females and impairment in at least one of the CGA tests, respectively. The CGA tests comprised KATZ Basic Activities of Daily Living Scale Lawton–Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale, Mini-Mental-State Examination Scale, Geriatric Depression Scale-15, and Mini-Nutritional Assessment Short Form. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses evaluated the test’s predictive ability. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities were assessed. Results The median age of the 76 patients included was 72 (65–91) years. There was a moderate correlation between handgrip strength and the G8 test total score. The sensitivity and specificity of the G8 test to detect probable sarcopenia alone (cut off score = 12.5) were 50 and 92%, respectively (AUC: 0.747; p < 0.001); to determine abnormal CGA plus probable sarcopenia (cut off score = 13) were 93.33 and 86.89%, respectively (AUC: 0.939; p < 0.001); and to detect abnormal CGA alone (cut off score = 14) were 79.63 and 95.45%, respectively (AUC: 0.893; p < 0.001). The G8 test results agreed with those of CGA (κ = 0.638; p < 0.001). Both inter- and intra-rater assessments of G8 scores revealed a strong agreement (Interclass correlation coefficient = 0.979, p < 0.001 and ρ = 0.994, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions The Turkish version of the G8 test is a good screening tool to detect probable sarcopenia alone and in conjunction with abnormal CGA in older patients with solid malignancies. The G8 screening tool may thus be useful in detecting probable sarcopenia in Turkish older adults with solid cancers.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11335
Vasileios J. Kontsiotis ◽  
Archimidis Triantafyllidis ◽  
Stylianos Telidis ◽  
Ioanna Eleftheriadou ◽  
Vasilios Liordos

Wildlife value orientations (WVOs) can predict consensus or controversy over wildlife-related issues and are therefore important for their successful management. We carried out on-site face-to-face interviews with Greek people (n = 2392) to study two basic WVOs, i.e., domination (prioritize human well-being over wildlife) and mutualism (wildlife has rights just as humans). Our sample was more mutualism-oriented than domination-oriented; however, domination was a better predictor of management acceptability than mutualism. WVOs were better predictors of the acceptability of lethal strategies (shooting, destruction at breeding sites, 11–36% of variance explained) relative to taking no action (9–18%) and non-lethal strategies (e.g., compensation, fencing, trapping, and relocating, 0–13%). In addition, the predictive ability of WVOs, mostly for accepting lethal strategies, increased with the increasing severity of the conflict (crop damage, attacking domestic animals, 11–29%; disease transmission, 17–36%) and depending on species conservation status and provenance (endangered native brown bear (Ursus arctos), 11–20%; common native red fox (Vulpes vulpes), 12–31%; common exotic coypu (Myocastor coypus), 17–36%). Managers should consider these findings for developing education and outreach programs, especially when they intend to raise support for lethal strategies. In doing so, they would be able to subsequently implement effective wildlife management plans.

2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052110479
Farzana Akter ◽  
Farah Deeba

Literature on the psychological effects on women survivors of violence (WSV) suggests there may be a relationship between the specific type of gender-based violence and patterns in the development of mental health consequences. Understanding these relationships would support early targeted (or early specialist) intervention. Since violence against women in families is a common social health problem in developing countries, the study attempted to explore the abuse specific reaction patterns within such a context. A total of 600 WSV ( mean age = 26.86, SD = 7.47) were recruited from different social service organizations working for WSV in Bangladesh. To identify the type of gender-based violence (i.e., physical, sexual, emotional, psychological, and economic violence) experienced and psychiatric sequelae (i.e., post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and substance abuse) in WSV, multiple reliable and valid measures were used. The results of the hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that amongst the various different types of violence, only psychological, sexual, and economic violence have a significant independent predictive ability on PTSD, anxiety, and depression in the Bangladeshi WSV. Violence related factors such as witnessing violence in childhood among parents and history of childhood abuse had the unique predictive ability on suicidal ideation and substance abuse, respectively. Our result suggested that accepting physical and emotional abuse at any stage of life is very common for Bangladeshi women. This study suggested that non-physical forms of violence have the most significant independent predictive ability in the development of psychiatric symptoms. It is suggested that to develop appropriate support services for WSV within this socio-cultural context, further research is required which focuses on the psychological impact of non-physical forms of violence.

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. 171-171
Matthew R Beck ◽  
Cameron Marshall ◽  
Konagh Garrett ◽  
Andrew P Foote ◽  
Ronaldo Vibart ◽  

Abstract Urine nitrogen excretion (g/d; UN) represent a significant environmental impact for both confinement feeding and pastoral based dairy systems. It is difficult to measure UN directly due to animal handling and labor requirements, especially in forage based production systems. The currently available milk urea nitrogen (MUN) equations have been shown to overestimate UN excretion of grazing dairy cows compared with an equation using urinary creatinine and UN concentration, indicating that diet may alter the relationship between MUN and UN. This potential was explored using data retrieved (treatment means: n = 69 and 27 for fresh forage [FF] and total mixed ration [TMR] fed cattle, respectively) from the literature and new data obtained from dairy cows fed FF (n = 15) in metabolism crates was used to test the new equations. The TMR data from literature was further split into a training set (to develop the model; n = 53) and a test set (to validate the model; n = 16). There was an interaction for diet type (P &lt; 0.01) where UN (g/d) = 0.023 × MUN (mg/dL) × live-weight (kg, LW) for TMR fed cattle, (similar to a pre-established equation); however, UN (g/d) = 0.015 × MUN × LW for FF fed cattle. For FF based equations, the New MUN equation and the creatinine equation showed good precision and accuracy (Lin’s CCC = 0.79 and 0.74, respectively) and adequate predictive ability (RMSEP = 29.8 and 35.9, respectively). The new MUN equation for TMR fed cattle showed excellent accuracy and precision (Lin’s CCC = 0.87) with good predictive ability (RMSEP = 24.3) for UN excretion (observed mean = 216.5 g/d). The new equations generated during this meta-analysis provide promising predictive ability of UN excretion, which can be used for management considerations, future research, and policy making.

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. 254-254
Matias Bermann ◽  
Daniela Lourenco ◽  
Vivian Breen ◽  
Rachel Hawken ◽  
Fernando Brito Lopes ◽  

Abstract The objectives of this study were to model the inclusion of a group of external birds into a local broiler chicken population for the purpose of genomic evaluations and evaluating the behavior of two accuracy estimators under different model specifications. The pedigree was composed by 242,413 birds and genotypes were available for 107,216 birds. A five-trait model that included one growth, two yield, and two efficiency traits was used for the analyses. The strategies to model the introduction of external birds were to include a fixed effect representing the origin of parents and to use UPG or metafounders. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were obtained with single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) using the Algorithm for Proven and Young (APY). Bias, dispersion, and accuracy of GEBV for the validation birds, i.e., from the most recent generation, were computed. The bias and dispersion were estimated with the LR-method, whereas accuracy was estimated by the LR-method and predictive ability. Models with fixed UPG and estimated inbreeding or random UPG resulted in similar GEBV. The inclusion of an extra fixed effect in the model made the GEBV unbiased and reduced the inflation, while models without such an effect were significantly biased. Genomic predictions with metafounders were slightly biased and inflated due to the unbalanced number of observations assigned to each metafounder. When combining local and external populations, the greatest accuracy and smallest bias can be obtained by adding an extra fixed effect to account for the origin of parents plus UPG with estimated inbreeding or random UPG. To estimate the accuracy, the LR-method is more consistent among models, whereas predictive ability greatly depends on the model specification, that is, on the fixed effects included in the model. When changing model specification, the largest variation for the LR-method was 20%, while for predictive ability was 110%.

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