scholarly journals Identifying Weather Regimes in the Wintertime 500-hPa Geopotential Height Field for the Pacific–North American Sector Using a Limited-Contour Clustering Technique

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1619-1630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph H. Casola ◽  
John M. Wallace

Abstract A hierarchical clustering algorithm using Ward’s method has been applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height field in the Pacific–North American sector. In contrast to previous clustering studies that measure distance between records by using all the grid points within the domain (full-field method), the procedure outlined here, referred to as the limited-contour method, focuses on the coordinates of the 540-dam contour as the distance measure. Comparison between the regimes emerging from the two methods shows that the limited-contour method is more efficient than the full-field method with respect to grouping maps with ridges located at similar longitudes. The four regimes emerging from the limited-contour clustering analysis have been named as follows: Off-Shore Trough, Alaskan Ridge, Coastal Ridge, and Rockies Ridge. The frequencies of occurrence of the regimes have a significant relationship with the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. El Niño winters exhibit a strong preference for the Rockies Ridge pattern; La Niña winters exhibit a greater diversity of regimes. The frequencies of occurrence of extreme cold outbreaks and episodes of heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest show a relatively strong connection to the regime type. For other regions in the western portion of the United States, only the frequency of occurrence of cold outbreaks exhibits a significant relationship to regime type.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 253
Author(s):  
Luying Ji ◽  
Qixiang Luo ◽  
Yan Ji ◽  
Xiefei Zhi

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) were used to improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field over the northern hemisphere with lead times of 1–7 days based on ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UK Met Office (UKMO) ensemble prediction systems. The performance of BMA and EMOS were compared with each other and with the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts from the perspective of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. The results show that the deterministic forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height distribution obtained from BMA and EMOS are more similar to the observed distribution than the raw ensembles, especially for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high. BMA and EMOS provide a better calibrated and sharper probability density function than the raw ensembles. They are also superior to the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts according to the Brier score and the Brier skill score. Comparisons between BMA and EMOS show that EMOS performs slightly better for lead times of 1–4 days, whereas BMA performs better for longer lead times. In general, BMA and EMOS both improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field.



2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1875
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Nicolas Vigaud ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett

Abstract Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.



2007 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Qiong SONG ◽  
Hua-Sheng YAN ◽  
Su-Yu YANG ◽  
Wan-Biao LI




2013 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 213-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Pascual ◽  
M.L. Martín ◽  
F. Valero ◽  
M.Y. Luna ◽  
A. Morata


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