Variations of Arctic winter ozone from the LIMS Level 3 dataset

The Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) instrument operated from October 25, 1978, through May 28, 1979. Its Version 6 (V6) profiles and their Level 3 or zonal Fourier coefficient products have been characterized and archived in 2008 and in 2011, respectively. This paper focuses on the value and use of daily ozone maps from Level 3, based on a gridding of its zonal coefficients. We present maps of V6 ozone on pressure surfaces and compare them with several rocket-borne chemiluminescent ozone measurements that extend into the lower mesosphere. Daily, synoptic maps of V6 ozone and temperature illustrate that they are an important aid in interpreting satellite limb-infrared emission versus local measurements, especially when they occur during dynamically active periods of northern hemisphere winter. We then show a sequence of V6 maps of upper stratospheric ozone, spanning the minor stratospheric warmings of late January and early February 1979. The map sequence of V6 geopotential height reveals how ozone was changing in the vortex and at the centers of adjacent anticyclones. We also report on zonal variations of the tertiary ozone maximum of the upper mesosphere and its associated temperature fields during winter. These several examples provide a guide to researchers for further exploratory analyses of middle atmosphere ozone from LIMS.

Delayed Start of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemic at the End of the 20/21 Northern Hemisphere Winter Season, Lyon, France

The implementation of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI), triggered by the emergence of covid-19, decrease the RSV circulation. Data, from our ongoing surveillance; show a late introduction of RSV at the end of December and a 4 month delayed epidemic start without significant change in our NPI policy. This data indicates that RSV still have the potential to give a late season outbreak in northern hemisphere. RSV surveillance should be reinforced and RSV Pharmaceutical Interventions maintained for at risk neonate

Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions.

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

Significance Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021. Few emerging markets will be widely vaccinated by end-2021, restricting, if not negating, their recoveries.

Assessing the influence of climate on future wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

High susceptibility has limited the role of the climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical controls (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results imply a role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, however, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a greater impact on generating accurate predictions and reflects the strong leverage of NPIs on future outbreak severity.