scholarly journals A Case Study on Power Outage Impacts from Future Hurricane Sandy Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Wanik ◽  
E. N. Anagnostou ◽  
M. Astitha ◽  
B. M. Hartman ◽  
G. M. Lackmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Power Outage ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Electric Distribution Network ◽  
Energy Service ◽  
Ipcc Ar4

AbstractHurricane Sandy (2012, referred to as Current Sandy) was among the most devastating storms to impact Connecticut’s overhead electric distribution network, resulting in over 15 000 outage locations that affected more than 500 000 customers. In this paper, the severity of tree-caused outages in Connecticut is estimated under future-climate Hurricane Sandy simulations, each exhibiting strengthened winds and heavier rain accumulation over the study area from large-scale thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere and track changes in the year ~2100 (referred to as Future Sandy). Three machine-learning models used five weather simulations and the ensemble mean of Current and Future Sandy, along with land-use and overhead utility infrastructure data, to predict the severity and spatial distribution of outages across the Eversource Energy service territory in Connecticut. To assess the influence of increased precipitation from Future Sandy, two approaches were compared: an outage model fit with a full set of variables accounting for both wind and precipitation, and a reduced set with only wind. Future Sandy displayed an outage increase of 42%–64% when using the ensemble of WRF simulations fit with three different outage prediction models. This study is a proof of concept for the assessment of increased outage risk resulting from potential changes in tropical cyclone intensity associated with late-century thermodynamic changes driven by the IPCC AR4 A2 emissions scenario.

scholarly journals On the Treatment of Missing Item Responses in Educational Large-Scale Assessment Data: An Illustrative Simulation Study and a Case Study Using PISA 2018 Mathematics Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1653-1687
Author(s):  
Alexander Robitzsch
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Large Scale Assessment ◽  
Missing Data Treatments ◽  
Scale Assessment ◽  
Scaling Models ◽  
Item Responses ◽  
Response Propensity ◽  
Missing Item

Missing item responses are prevalent in educational large-scale assessment studies such as the programme for international student assessment (PISA). The current operational practice scores missing item responses as wrong, but several psychometricians have advocated for a model-based treatment based on latent ignorability assumption. In this approach, item responses and response indicators are jointly modeled conditional on a latent ability and a latent response propensity variable. Alternatively, imputation-based approaches can be used. The latent ignorability assumption is weakened in the Mislevy-Wu model that characterizes a nonignorable missingness mechanism and allows the missingness of an item to depend on the item itself. The scoring of missing item responses as wrong and the latent ignorable model are submodels of the Mislevy-Wu model. In an illustrative simulation study, it is shown that the Mislevy-Wu model provides unbiased model parameters. Moreover, the simulation replicates the finding from various simulation studies from the literature that scoring missing item responses as wrong provides biased estimates if the latent ignorability assumption holds in the data-generating model. However, if missing item responses are generated such that they can only be generated from incorrect item responses, applying an item response model that relies on latent ignorability results in biased estimates. The Mislevy-Wu model guarantees unbiased parameter estimates if the more general Mislevy-Wu model holds in the data-generating model. In addition, this article uses the PISA 2018 mathematics dataset as a case study to investigate the consequences of different missing data treatments on country means and country standard deviations. Obtained country means and country standard deviations can substantially differ for the different scaling models. In contrast to previous statements in the literature, the scoring of missing item responses as incorrect provided a better model fit than a latent ignorable model for most countries. Furthermore, the dependence of the missingness of an item from the item itself after conditioning on the latent response propensity was much more pronounced for constructed-response items than for multiple-choice items. As a consequence, scaling models that presuppose latent ignorability should be refused from two perspectives. First, the Mislevy-Wu model is preferred over the latent ignorable model for reasons of model fit. Second, in the discussion section, we argue that model fit should only play a minor role in choosing psychometric models in large-scale assessment studies because validity aspects are most relevant. Missing data treatments that countries can simply manipulate (and, hence, their students) result in unfair country comparisons.

A Family With Autosomal-Dominant Progressive Sensorineural Hearing Loss

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Halpin ◽  
Barbara Herrmann ◽  
Margaret Whearty
Keyword(s):  
Speech Production ◽  
Hearing Aids ◽  
Role Models ◽  
Speech Intelligibility ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
The Family ◽  
Patient Will ◽  
Language Pathology

The family described in this article provides an unusual opportunity to relate findings from genetic, histological, electrophysiological, psychophysical, and rehabilitative investigation. Although the total number evaluated is large (49), the known, living affected population is smaller (14), and these are spread from age 20 to age 59. As a result, the findings described above are those of a large-scale case study. Clearly, more data will be available through longitudinal study of the individuals documented in the course of this investigation but, given the slow nature of the progression in this disease, such studies will be undertaken after an interval of several years. The general picture presented to the audiologist who must rehabilitate these cases is that of a progressive cochlear degeneration that affects only thresholds at first, and then rapidly diminishes speech intelligibility. The expected result is that, after normal language development, the patient may accept hearing aids well, encouraged by the support of the family. Performance and satisfaction with the hearing aids is good, until the onset of the speech intelligibility loss, at which time the patient will encounter serious difficulties and may reject hearing aids as unhelpful. As the histological and electrophysiological results indicate, however, the eighth nerve remains viable, especially in the younger affected members, and success with cochlear implantation may be expected. Audiologic counseling efforts are aided by the presence of role models and support from the other affected members of the family. Speech-language pathology services were not considered important by the members of this family since their speech production developed normally and has remained very good. Self-correction of speech was supported by hearing aids and cochlear implants (Case 5’s speech production was documented in Perkell, Lane, Svirsky, & Webster, 1992). These patients received genetic counseling and, due to the high penetrance of the disease, exhibited serious concerns regarding future generations and the hope of a cure.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner--A case study in large-scale design integration

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. McMullin ◽  
A. R. Jacobsen ◽  
D. C. Carvan ◽  
R. J. Gardner ◽  
J. A. Goegan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Design Integration ◽  
Scale Design

Disruptive innovation and operationalization in local and sustainable food systems: Examining the University of Toronto-Local Food Plus partnership

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 120-139
Author(s):  
Lori Stahlbrand
Keyword(s):  
Food Systems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Food System ◽  
Local Food ◽  
Disruptive Innovation ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
University Of Toronto ◽  
The University

This paper traces the partnership between the University of Toronto and the non-profit Local Food Plus (LFP) to bring local sustainable food to its St. George campus. At its launch, the partnership represented the largest purchase of local sustainable food at a Canadian university, as well as LFP’s first foray into supporting institutional procurement of local sustainable food. LFP was founded in 2005 with a vision to foster sustainable local food economies. To this end, LFP developed a certification system and a marketing program that matched certified farmers and processors to buyers. LFP emphasized large-scale purchases by public institutions. Using information from in-depth semi-structured key informant interviews, this paper argues that the LFP project was a disruptive innovation that posed a challenge to many dimensions of the established food system. The LFP case study reveals structural obstacles to operationalizing a local and sustainable food system. These include a lack of mid-sized infrastructure serving local farmers, the domination of a rebate system of purchasing controlled by an oligopolistic foodservice sector, and embedded government support of export agriculture. This case study is an example of praxis, as the author was the founder of LFP, as well as an academic researcher and analyst.

Algorithm of combining chromatography mass spectrometry-untargeted profiling and multivariate analysis for identification of marker-substances in samples of complex composition

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (7) ◽  
pp. 12-19
Author(s):  
I. V. Plyushchenko ◽  
D. G. Shakhmatov ◽  
I. A. Rodin
Keyword(s):  
Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Complex Composition ◽  
Unified Protocol ◽  
Chromatography Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Marker Substances ◽  
Selection Testing ◽  
Untargeted Profiling

A viral development of statistical data processing, computing capabilities, chromatography-mass spectrometry, and omics technologies (technologies based on the achievements of genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) in recent decades has not led to formation of a unified protocol for untargeted profiling. Systematic errors reduce the reproducibility and reliability of the obtained results, and at the same time hinder consolidation and analysis of data gained in large-scale multi-day experiments. We propose an algorithm for conducting omics profiling to identify potential markers in the samples of complex composition and present the case study of urine samples obtained from different clinical groups of patients. Profiling was carried out by the method of liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. The markers were selected using methods of multivariate analysis including machine learning and feature selection. Testing of the approach was performed using an independent dataset by clustering and projection on principal components.

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