scholarly journals Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 6859-6881 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Brovkin ◽  
L. Boysen ◽  
V. K. Arora ◽  
J. P. Boisier ◽  
P. Cadule ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Abstract The effects of land-use changes on climate are assessed using specified-concentration simulations complementary to the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This analysis focuses on differences in climate and land–atmosphere fluxes between the ensemble averages of simulations with and without land-use changes by the end of the twenty-first century. Even though common land-use scenarios are used, the areas of crops and pastures are specific for each Earth system model (ESM). This is due to different interpretations of land-use classes. The analysis reveals that fossil fuel forcing dominates land-use forcing. In addition, the effects of land-use changes are globally not significant, whereas they are significant for regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. For these regions, three out of six participating models—the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (Earth System) (HadGEM2-ES); and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM)—reveal statistically significant changes in mean annual surface air temperature. In addition, changes in land surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use changes. These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. The relative importance of the climatic effects of land-use changes is higher for the RCP2.6 scenario, which considers an expansion of biofuel croplands as a climate mitigation option. The underlying similarity among all models is the loss in global land carbon storage due to land-use changes.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miren Vizcaíno ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
William J. Sacks ◽  
Michiel van den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr−1 in 1980–99 to −78 ± 143 Gt yr−1 in 2080–99. The 2080–99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980–99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980–99 to 28% in 2080–99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980–99 to 0.75 in 2080–99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt.

scholarly journals Surface Air Temperature Changes over the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries in China Simulated by 20 CMIP5 Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 3920-3937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Chen ◽  
Oliver W. Frauenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Historical temperature variability over China during the twentieth century and projected changes under three emission scenarios for the twenty-first century are evaluated on the basis of a multimodel ensemble of 20 GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and two observational datasets. Changes relative to phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) are assessed, and the performance of individual GCMs is also quantified. Compared with observations, GCMs have substantial cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau, especially in the cold season. The timing and location of these biases also correspond to the greatest disagreement among the individual models, indicating GCMs’ limitations in reproducing climatic features in this complex terrain. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble shows better agreement with observations than CMIP3 in terms of the temperature biases. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 capture the climatic warming over the twentieth century. However, the magnitude of the annual mean temperature trends is underestimated. There is also limited agreement in the spatial and seasonal patterns of temperature trends over China. Based on six statistical measures, four individual models—the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM), and Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4)—best represent surface air temperature variability over China. The future temperature projections indicate that the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios exhibit a gradual increase in annual temperature during the twenty-first century at a rate of 0.60° and 0.27°C (10 yr)−1, respectively. As the lowest-emission mitigation scenario, RCP 2.6 projects the lowest rate of temperature increase [0.10°C (10 yr)−1]. By the end of the twenty-first century, temperature is projected to increase by 1.7°–5.7°C, with larger warming over northern China and the Tibetan Plateau.

scholarly journals On the changes in surface ozone over the twenty-first century: sensitivity to changes in surface temperature and chemical mechanisms

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2183) ◽  
pp. 20190329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex T. Archibald ◽  
Steven T. Turnock ◽  
Paul T. Griffiths ◽  
Tony Cox ◽  
Richard G. Derwent ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Chemical Mechanisms ◽  
Twenty First Century

In this study, we show using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, UKESM1, that emissions and climate scenario depending, there could be large changes in surface ozone by the end of the twenty-first century, with unprecedentedly large increases over South and East Asia. We also show that statistical modelling of the trends in future ozone works well in reproducing the model output between 1900 and 2050. However, beyond 2050, and especially under large climate change scenarios, the statistical model results are in poorer agreement with the fully interactive Earth system model output. This suggests that additional processes occurring in the Earth system model such as changes in the production of ozone at higher temperatures or changes in the influx of ozone from the stratosphere, which are not captured by the statistical model, have a first order impact on the evolution of surface ozone over the twenty-first century. We show in a series of idealized box model simulations, with two different chemical schemes, that changes in temperature lead to diverging responses between the schemes. This points at the chemical mechanisms as being a source of uncertainty in the response of ozone to changes in temperature, and so climate, in the future. This underscores the need for more work to be performed to better understand the response of ozone to changes in temperature and constrain how well this relationship is simulated in models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

scholarly journals Contrasting Local versus Regional Effects of Land-Use-Change-Induced Heterogeneity on Historical Climate: Analysis with the GFDL Earth System Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 5448-5469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Malyshev ◽  
Elena Shevliakova ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Stephen W. Pacala
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Abstract The effects of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on surface climate using two ensembles of numerical experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) comprehensive Earth System Model ESM2Mb are investigated in this study. The experiments simulate historical climate with two different assumptions about LULCC: 1) no land-use change with potential vegetation (PV) and 2) with the CMIP5 historical reconstruction of LULCC (LU). Two different approaches were used in the analysis: 1) the authors compare differences in LU and PV climates to evaluate the regional and global effects of LULCC and 2) the authors characterize subgrid climate differences among different land-use tiles within each grid cell in the LU experiment. Using the first method, the authors estimate the magnitude of LULCC effect to be similar to some previous studies. Using the second method, the authors found a pronounced subgrid signal of LULCC in near-surface temperature over majority of areas affected by LULCC. The signal is strongest on croplands, where it is detectable with 95% confidence over 68.5% of all nonglaciated land grid cells in June–July–August, compared to 8.3% in the first method. In agricultural areas, the subgrid signal tends to be stronger than LU–PV signal by a factor of 1.3 in tropics in both summer and winter and by 1.5 in extratropics in winter. This analysis for the first time demonstrates and quantifies the local, subgrid-scale LULCC effects with a comprehensive ESM and compares it to previous global and regional approaches.

scholarly journals A model-based constraint of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 9425-9451 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Holden ◽  
N. R. Edwards ◽  
D. Gerten ◽  
S. Schaphoff
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
System Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Post Industrial

Abstract. We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a "top-down" approach, calibrating Earth System Model parameters constrained only by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments and so provides a new constraint that can in principal be combined with data-driven priors. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorporation of a Land Use Change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE earth system model, which we describe in full. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change over the preindustrial period (1850 to 2000). We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in Gross Primary Productivity in response of a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is likely to lie in the range 11 to 53%, with a most likely value of 28%. The present-day land-atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.6 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range 0.9 to −2.0 GTC yr−1). The present-day land-ocean flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −2.2 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.6 to −2.8 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation sink) to be 37 GTC, likely to lie in the range 130 to −20 GTC.

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